These are my 2018 NFL Betting Props. I've done well with these props over the past couple of years. My record since 2014 is 18-13, +$600. Of my top three props last year, two hit. I had Buccaneers over 6.5 and Browns under 5 as the big winners, while Falcons under 8 was a horrible call. Here's what I'm betting (all numbers are according to BetUS). I'll do an update in July once I get to Vegas.
2018 NFL Betting Props: Teams
Chicago Bears: Over 6.5 Wins
A friend who told me the Eagles were going to win the Super Bowl last year has called the Bears his 2018 sleeper team. And it's easy to see why. Chicago has an outstanding defense, yet won just five games in 2017 because it had a rookie quarterback with no one to throw to and a poor coaching staff. Now, Mitchell Trubisky has experience and an improved supporting cast, and he'll be coached up for a change. It seems as though the Bears should be able to win nine or 10 games this year.
Betting 5 Units (-105)
Dallas Cowboys: Under 8.5 Wins
It seems as though the Cowboys might be the worst team in the NFC East. Dak Prescott is not as good as people thought he was; the receiving corps is quite lackluster; and the offensive line, while better than last year, isn't as good as the 2016 unit.
Betting 2 Units (-115)
Jacksonville Jaguars: Under 9 Wins
This is an under all the way. The Jaguars won 10 games last year, yet had all the luck in the world. All three of the other quarterbacks in their division were injured, and Jacksonville didn't suffer any maladies itself, outside of Allen Robinson in Week 1. And yet, the Jaguars cleared this win total by just a half in 2017. The Jaguars are certain to regress into the 6-10 or 7-9 range, making this one of my top plays.
Betting 4 Units (-105)
Kansas City Chiefs: Over 7.5 Wins
The Chiefs are currently No. 6 in my NFL Power Rankings, so I have to like this over. I can't believe this number is so low. The Chiefs upgraded their quarterback this offseason, they added weapons to their offense, and they'll be getting Eric Berry back from injury. Kansas City seems like a 10-6 team at worst to me.
Betting 5 Units (-150)
New England Patriots: Over 11.5 Wins
Only 11.5 for the Patriots? It was 12.5 last year, and that still went over! New England has six free wins in the division, so it just needs to go 6-4 in the other 10 games to eclipse this total. That seems like an easy task.
Betting 2 Units (-115)
Seattle Seahawks: Under 8 Wins
Someone needs to send out a telegram to all NFL fans and inform them that the Seahawks aren't good anymore. It'll be very difficult for them to reach 9-7, thanks to their depleted defense, horrendous offensive line and non-existent running game. If you thought Russell Wilson did everything himself before, you ain't seen nothing yet.
Betting 2 Units (-160)
Washington Redskins: Over 6.5 Wins
The Redskins had an unbelievable amount of injuries last year, and despite this, they were still able to finish 7-9. They should have better luck this year, which should allow them to cruise over 5.5 wins.
Betting 4 Units (-140)
2018 NFL Betting Props: Super Bowl Odds
New Orleans Saints: 22/1
It could be argued that the Saints are the best team in the NFL, so getting them at 22/1 odds seems pretty sweet. It's puzzling why this number is so high. They were one missed tackle away from going to the NFC Championship last year, and their great 2017 NFL Draft class will all have experience heading into 2018.
Betting 0.5 Units to win 11
Houston Texans: 25/1
The Texans seem built to win now. They have a young, talented quarterback under a rookie contract, so they were able to spend lots of money this offseason. They focused on repairing their secondary, which will pair well with the amazing front seven.
Betting 0.5 Units to win 12.5
Kansas City Chiefs: 40/1
Patrick Mahomes, unlike Alex Smith, can lead the Chiefs deep into the playoffs. Kansas City will also be getting Eric Berry back from injury, which will be a huge boon for a defense that struggled last year.
Betting 0.5 Units to win 20
Chicago Bears: 100/1
I don't think the Bears will win the Super Bowl this year, but they seem too good to pass up at 100:1. I think there's a good chance they'll make the playoffs, so this will make for a good hedging opportunity.