These are my 2017 NFL Betting Props. I've done well with these props over the past couple of years. My record since 2014 is 18-13, +$600. Of my top three props last year, two hit. I had Buccaneers over 6.5 and Browns under 5 as the big winners, while Falcons under 8 was a horrible call. Here's what I'm betting (all numbers are according to 5Dimes). I'll do an update in July once I get to Vegas.
2017 NFL Betting Props: Teams
Jacksonville Jaguars: Under 6.5 Wins
The Jaguars are getting a lot of hype because of the moves they've made in free agency this offseason. So, it's pretty much like any other year. Unless something has changed, Blake Bortles is still Jacksonville's quarterback. Bortles doesn't care enough about football to put the necessary work into it, so the Jaguars will continue to lose as long as he's quarterback.
Betting 2 Units (+100)
Los Angeles Rams: Under 6 Wins
The juice on this sucks, but that's probably because it's going to hit. The Rams are a train wreck. They have one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL starting for them; they can't block; their No. 1 receiver is Robert Woods; they can't block; they're transitioning to a new defense that doesn't fit the strengths of some of their top players; and they have no home-field advantage. Other than that, they're pretty good!
Betting 4 Units (-175)
New England Patriots: Over 12.5 Wins
Yes, I would like to sign up for some free Tom Brady money. This is a high number, but the Patriots were 14-2 last year, and they've gotten better thanks to the great moves they've made this offseason.
Betting 2 Units (-105)
New York Giants: Under 8.5 Wins
The Giants were incredibly lucky last year, as the metrics marked them as a 7-9 or 8-8 team. They're going to regress to the mean this season, and I don't think a 6-10 campaign is out of the question. They can't block, and their quarterback is in rapid decline. I wish we were getting another half of a win, as the under 9 would look very appealing.
Betting 2 Units (+130)
New York Jets: Under 5 Wins
The Jets are probably the worst team in football, and I can't see them winning five games this year. They're sucking for Sam Darnold, so let's go along for the ride. The juice sucks, but I'm confident in this one.
Betting 3 Units (-190)
Philadelphia Eagles: Over 8 Wins
It's hard for me to imagine the Eagles winning fewer than 10 games this year. They were 7-9 in 2016, and that was with Lane Johnson missing 10 games. The Eagles were 5-1 with Johnson, and now they've added better receivers to help Carson Wentz, who has been working extremely hard on his mechanics this offseason.
Betting 4 Units (-125)
San Francisco 49ers: Under 4.5 Wins
The free wins from betting under on Chip Kelly's teams are over, sadly, but this should still cash. The 49ers are devoid of talent and are likely to finish around 3-13. I wish we could get under 5, but this should be fine.
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