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2012 NCAA Tournament Picks: Computer Rankings



2012 NCAA Tournament Picks:
South | West | East | Midwest | Final Four 2012 NCAA Tournament Home
2012 NCAA Tournament Bracket Breakdowns:
East | West | Midwest | South
2012 NCAA Tournament Resources:
Computer Rankings



2012 NCAA Tournament: Computer Rankings


If you've been following my NCAA Tournament Picks for a while, you know that I like to eliminate teams that can't win on the road, have freshman point guards, etc. You also may have noticed that I haven't updated my info pages this year.

The reason for this? I asked a math whiz friend of mine to construct a formula that incorporated everything I looked for in the NCAA Tournament. I just had to plug all of the numbers in, and Excel spit out the results.

Below are the computer rankings that I used for my NCAA Tournament picks. The fields I looked at were: offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency, coaching history in the tournament, number of conference blowout victories, point differential, freshmen point guards, road victories, success in the final 10 games, strength of schedule, and other miscellaneous things like whether a team has only one scorer or a major injury. These attributes are all weighted based on importance.

Obviously, the closer the number is to zero, the better the team is:

  • Kentucky - 39.67
  • Michigan State - 40.56
  • North Carolina - 46.50
  • Wichita State - 47.66 (shocked by this)
  • Memphis - 53.92 (should be much higher than No. 8 seed!)
  • Ohio State - 57.55
  • Vanderbilt - 59.03
  • Kansas - 62.94
  • Syracuse - 65.37 (with penalty for Fab Melo)
  • Indiana - 68.08
  • Saint Louis - 69.81 (should be much higher than No. 9 seed!)
  • Baylor - 71.25

  • Wisconsin - 72.09
  • Marquette - 73.67
  • Duke - 73.72 (very overrated)
  • New Mexico - 74.63
  • VCU - 74.75 (should be much higher than No. 12 seed!)
  • Missouri - 75.48
  • Florida State - 79.28
  • Belmont - 80.15
  • Georgetown - 80.28 (poor coaching drags them down)
  • Purdue - 81.16
  • Michigan - 83.93
  • California - 86.35
  • Cincinnati - 87.77
  • Louisville - 89.04 (122th in offensive efficiency)
  • Gonzaga - 89.04
  • Temple - 89.98
  • N.C. State - 90.44
  • Davidson - 91.09
  • Connecticut - 92.53
  • Murray State - 94.89
  • Long Beach State - 94.89
  • New Mexico State - 96.97
  • Kansas State - 98.48
  • Iowa State - 99.03
  • Florida - 99.24
  • Xavier - 99.27

  • Harvard - 102.05
  • Saint Mary's - 104.91
  • Notre Dame - 104.96
  • UNLV - 106.19
  • Ohio - 106.84
  • St. Bonaventure - 108.00
  • San Diego State - 109.49
  • Creighton - 111.87
  • South Dakota State - 113.74
  • Alabama - 114.63
  • Colorado State - 118.38
  • BYU - 120.64
  • Texas - 124.70
  • Montana - 124.90

  • Iona - 126.23
  • Virginia - 126.37
  • Colorado - 131.14
  • Lehigh - 131.26
  • Detroit - 133.30
  • West Virginia - 135.67
  • South Florida - 136.25
  • Southern Miss - 139.29
  • UNC-Asheville - 143.14
  • Lamar - 145.67
  • Vermont - 148.50
  • Long Island - 176.60
  • Western Kentucky - 179.99
  • Loyola-Maryland - 185.70
  • Norfolk State - 225.52
  • Mississippi Valley St. - 238.61

    2012 NCAA Tournament Picks:
    South | West | East | Midwest | Final Four 2012 NCAA Tournament Home
    2012 NCAA Tournament Bracket Breakdowns:
    East | West | Midwest | South
    2012 NCAA Tournament Resources:
    Computer Rankings




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    Ian 03-12-2012 08:07 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.142 (total posts: 1)
    48     18

    Didn't Ku knock off North Carolina in the 08 Championship run?
    Dan 03-12-2012 04:19 pm xxx.xxx.xxx6.54 (total posts: 1)
    17     16

    Even though FSU won against injured Duke and UNC, they beat Duke in Cameron and UNC by 32. Just saying.
    msmear 03-12-2012 04:09 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.167 (total posts: 1)
    67     27

    There's a difference between Ohio State University, Michigan's rival, and Ohio University. A bobcat doesn't closely resemble a buckeye.
    Critical thinker 03-12-2012 01:31 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.126 (total posts: 3)
    19     15

    BYU shouldn't be there and Drexel should. It's not Drexel's fault they don't have the name to get some bigger games. BYU is garbage though.
    B!tching 03-12-2012 01:28 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.216 (total posts: 1)
    12     20

    CSU is in because their RPI was in the top 30 and the had a top 10 strength of schedule.

    Drexel was 61st in RPI and had a SOS outside the top 200. Winning a bunch of games in a joke conference while playing sh!t-all OOC doesn't make you a tournament team.

    If you want to whine about someone getting in over mediocre Drexel then at least whine about a team like BYU or Iona who you could actually make a case against.
    Shaun 03-12-2012 01:21 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.217 (total posts: 1)
    55     15

    Walt-
    No Norfolk State homer here, just a NSU alum....its a city in the tidewater area of VA and a HBCU. And they are maybe the 3rd or 4th worst team in the tourney- they beat LIU earlier this season. Please do more research before you rag on the small schools. No one expects them to make a run, but just getting in the dance is reward enough.
    P.S.- def agree on the Drexel front, they wouldve been a tough out for a number of teams
    Critical thinker 03-12-2012 11:34 am xxx.xxx.xxx.126 (total posts: 3)
    34     18

    I guess to be considered an expert at the tourny you pick 3 number 1's every year and maybe put a 2 or 3 in to show an upset... Every year the "Experts" pick the same way.

    Just goes to show you anything can happen and if you aren't a big school name you are given no credit.
    Final Four 03-12-2012 11:31 am xxx.xxx.xxx.126 (total posts: 3)
    10     13

    Kentucky, Flordia State, Kansas & Missouri.

    Kentucky Beats Flordia State in the championship.

    Don't buy into the hype of the number 1's this year. The only number 1 that doesn't look flawed is Kentucky.
    Also, how did Michigan State get a number 1? They might not even make it past New Mexico, but will get shellacked by Missouri if they do.
    Marc 03-12-2012 11:23 am xxx.xxx.xxx.109 (total posts: 1)
    9     9

    @Enrique: A couple years ago there were 4 #1s in the Final Four. Anything can happen, but yes, usually there are 2 #1s and 2 others, however, no #1s made it last year.
    Chris 03-12-2012 10:36 am xxx.xxx.xxx23.3 (total posts: 1)
    18     15

    Louisville over Mich St.
    Lee 03-12-2012 10:34 am xxx.xxx.xxx.243 (total posts: 1)
    6     9

    I could see Mich St. knocking off kentucky. KU plays undisciplined at times and Mich St. doesn't wow you but are very consistent.
    Enrique 03-12-2012 08:48 am xxx.xxx.xxx.108 (total posts: 1)
    79     9

    Very original Final Four. Three #1's and a #2. This practically never happens anymore. Guaranteed a mid major will crash the party.
    John 03-12-2012 08:37 am xxx.xxx.xxx2.19 (total posts: 1)
    9     10

    what about the other times Florida State beat North Carolina and Duke this season?
    Vince 03-12-2012 04:49 am xxx.xxx.xxx3.99 (total posts: 1)
    97     53

    Would you like to let us know WHY Syracuse is "overrated" and the "weakest of the one seeds?" I think they're excellent, and have incredible defense. Defense wins
    championships.

    Also, having the best bench scorer in the nation helps.


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