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NBA Picks - November 2007

Note: Because I watch line movements and where the money is going, it's impossible for me to post an NBA selection around 5:30 on weeknights.


Friday, Nov. 30, 2007 (1-0, +$200)


Indiana Pacers (8-8) at Seattle Sonics (2-14)
Line: Pacers by 1.5.

Walt's Projected Line: Pacers -3.
Friday, 10:35 ET

There's no reason to bet on the Sonics tonight. They've dropped six in a row, covering only one of those contests. Indiana, meanwhile, has won four of five, including a 112-110 decision at Denver. The Pacers opened up -2.5, but oddly have dropped to -1.5 despite having nearly two-thirds of the cash flow in their direction.


The Vegas. Edge: Sonics.
People seem to be backing the hotter Pacers.
  • Percentage of money on Indiana: 63% (5,000 bets)


    Prediction: Sonics 98, Pacers 95
    Sonics +1.5 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200
    Sonics 95, Pacers 93.



  • Thursday, Nov. 29, 2007 (1-0, +$200)


    Denver Nuggets (9-6) at Los Angeles Lakers (8-6)
    Line: Lakers by 5.5.

    Walt's Projected Line: Lakers -4.
    Thursday, 10:35 ET

    I find it odd that despite there being a good amount of action on the Nuggets, the line is moving in Los Angeles' favor. This spread opened at -5 and his since risen to -5.5.


    The Vegas. Edge: Lakers.
    The Nuggets are being bet at a solid clip.
  • Percentage of money on Denver: 67% (12,000 bets)


    Prediction: Lakers 116, Nuggets 107
    Lakers -5.5 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200
    Lakers 127, Nuggets 99.



  • Wednesday, Nov. 28, 2007 (1-0, +$300)


    Houston Rockets (8-7) at Phoenix Suns (11-3)
    Line: Suns by 5.

    Walt's Projected Line: Suns -11.
    Wednesday, 9:05 ET

    Did you know that the Suns are 8-0 against the spread versus Houston the past three years? And did you know that Phoenix was a larger favorite (-5.5) at the Rockets than it is now? This is why the casual bettor is wagering his mortgage on Phoenix tonight. Yet, the line opened at six and dropped to five, despite all of the action on the host.


    The Vegas. Edge: Rockets.
    People are betting this soft line like there's no tomorrow.
  • Percentage of money on Phoenix: 88% (7,000 bets)


    Prediction: Suns 113, Rockets 112
    Rockets +5 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300
    Rockets 100, Suns 94.



  • Tuesday, Nov. 27, 2007 (0-1, -$220)


    Memphis Grizzlies (4-9) at New Jersey Nets (7-7)
    Line: Nets by 6.5.

    Walt's Projected Line: Nets -6.5.
    Tuesday, 7:35 ET

    Another night, another game where the line movement matches the money. The Nets opened -5 and are now -6.5 in most books.


    The Vegas. Edge: Grizzlies.
    More than three-quarters of the public on the hot Nets.
  • Percentage of money on New Jersey: 77% (10,000 bets)


    Prediction: Nets 101, Grizzlies 91
    Nets -6.5 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220




  • Monday, Nov. 26, 2007 (1-0, +$200)


    Orlando Magic (12-3) at Portland Blazers (5-8)
    Line: Magic by 5.

    Walt's Projected Line: Magic -4.5.
    Monday, 10:05 ET

    The Magic are on fire right now, and they opened up as 4-point favorites in Portland. Well, the public is all over them, as you'll see below, so the oddsmaker has adjusted the line. That's a usually a good sign if you want to bet on the favorite.


    The Vegas. Edge: Blazers.
    People loving the Magic tonight.
  • Percentage of money on Orlando: 99% (9,000 bets)


    Prediction: Magic 99, Blazers 90
    Magic -5 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200
    Magic 85, Blazers 74.



  • Sunday, Nov. 25, 2007 (1-0, +$200)


    San Antonio Spurs (10-2) at Seattle Sonics (2-10)
    Line: Spurs by 10.

    Walt's Projected Line: Spurs -9.
    Sunday, 9:05 ET

    Taking the Spurs may seem like a n00b play, but the line is high, and with the money going on San Antonio, the line has moved up from nine to 10.


    The Vegas. Edge: Sonics.
    The Spurs are a public team, so there's a lot of action on them.
  • Percentage of money on San Antonio: 95% (19,000 bets)


    Prediction: Spurs 104, Sonics 82
    Spurs -10 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200
    Spurs 116, Sonics 101.



  • Saturday, Nov. 24, 2007 (0-1, -$330)


    Golden State Warriors (4-7) at Philadelphia 76ers (3-8)
    Line: Warriors by 3.5.

    Walt's Projected Line: Warriors -2.5.
    Saturday, 7:05 ET

    Another game where the line movement matches the money. Golden State opened up -1.5 and has since risen to -3.5. I also like the Celtics a bit, so you can make a play on that if you want. Same situation, but I feel safer with the red-hot Warriors, who have won four of five.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    Big game for both teams.


    The Vegas. Edge: 76ers.
    No one on the 76ers tonight.
  • Percentage of money on Golden State: 95% (8,000 bets)


    Prediction: Warriors 103, 76ers 88
    Warriors -3.5 (3 Units) -- Incorrect; -$330
    Warriors 100, 76ers 98.



  • Friday, Nov. 23, 2007 (1-0, +$200)


    Los Angeles Lakers (7-4) at Boston Celtics (9-1)
    Line: Celtics by 8.

    Walt's Projected Line: Celtics -7.
    Friday, 7:35 ET

    I like the Warriors, but it's 6:45 and too late to take them. So, I'm siding with the Celtics because the line has moved up from seven to eight to match the money.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    Big game for both teams.


    The Vegas. Edge: Lakers.
    The public loves the purple and gold tonight.
  • Percentage of money on Boston: 83% (26,000 bets)


    Prediction: Celtics 117, Lakers 105
    Celtics -8 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200
    Celtics 107, Lakers 94.



  • Wednesday, Nov. 21, 2007 (0-1, -$330)


    Los Angeles Lakers (7-3) at Milwaukee Bucks (5-4)
    Line: Lakers by 2.5.

    Walt's Projected Line: Lakers -1.5.
    Wednesday, 8:05 ET

    This line seems shady, but think about it - the Lakers were only -1.5 at Indiana, and won in a blowout. In fact, they've won and covered their previous four contests. They're on fire.

    There's tons of money on Los Angeles, but the spread is moving its way. Milwaukee actually opened up as a 1-point favorite. Now, the line is Lakers -2.5.


    The Psychology. Edge: Bucks.
    I'm not sure if the Lakers will be focused, given that they play the Celtics in two days. Then again, they won and covered against Minnesota before San Antonio.


    The Vegas. Edge: Bucks.
    The public loves the purple and gold tonight.
  • Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 97% (8,000 bets)


    Prediction: Lakers 114, Bucks 106
    Lakers -2.5 (3 Units) -- Incorrect; -$330
    Bucks 110, Lakers 103.



  • Tuesday, Nov. 20, 2007 (1-0, +$300)


    Chicago Bulls (2-7) at Denver Nuggets (7-3)
    Line: Nuggets by 8.

    Walt's Projected Line: Nuggets -6.5.
    Tuesday, 9:05 ET

    The Nuggets have been demolishing everyone in their path, winning four of the past five games by double digits. The Bulls, meanwhile, continue to disappoint.

    The main reason I love Denver is that despite all of the action on it, the spread has risen from six to eight.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: Bulls.
    The public loves the Nuggets tonight.
  • Percentage of money on Denver: 98% (16,000 bets)


    Prediction: Nuggets 105, Bulls 84
    Nuggets -8 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300
    Nuggets 112, Bulls 91.



  • Monday, Nov. 19, 2007 (1-0, +$200)


    New Jersey Nets (4-6) at Utah Jazz (7-4)
    Line: Jazz by 11.

    Walt's Projected Line: Jazz -10.
    Monday, 7:35 ET

    The Nets stink, and I like the line movement here. Utah opened up -10.5 - a bit higher than I expected - and the line is matching the money.


    The Psychology. Edge: Nets.
    A Breather Alert if such a thing exists in the NBA. The Jazz have the Hornets and Pistons after this contest.


    The Vegas. Edge: Nets.
    About three-quarters of the public is on Utah.
  • Percentage of money on Utah: 74% (12,000 bets)


    Prediction: Jazz 101, Nets 81
    Jazz -11 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200
    Jazz 102, Nets 75.



  • Saturday, Nov. 17, 2007 (1-1, +$90)


    Miami Heat (1-8) at New Jersey Nets (4-5)
    Line: Heat by 3.

    Walt's Projected Line: Pick.
    Saturday, 7:35 ET

    Last night's loss hurt. I had the Knicks +3, but watched them lose by five in double overtime.

    A 1-8 team favored on the road? Well, the Heat have Dwayne Wade back, while the Nets look lost without Vince Carter. Tons of action on Miami, but this spread actually moved from Nets -2 to +3. Looks like the books are scared of Miami action.


    The Psychology. Edge: Heat.
    Miami needs to start winning games. Now.


    The Vegas. Edge: Nets.
    Everyone's on Miami.
  • Percentage of money on Miami: 98% (5,000 bets)


    Prediction: Heat 86, Nets 78
    Heat -3 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200
    Under 175 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
    Heat 91, Nets 87.



  • Friday, Nov. 16, 2007 (0-1, -$330)


    New York Knicks (2-5) at Sacramento Kings (2-6)
    Line: Kings by 2.5.

    Walt's Projected Line: Pick.
    Friday, 10:05 ET

    Interesting line movement, as the line opened Kings -3, and despite all the action on the host, the spread is down to -2.5 in most places. The smart money is on the Knicks, and it's easy to see why; they've seemed to bond together in the wake of the Isiah Thomas-Stephon Marbury incident, covering both contests after the alleged brawl. New York nearly won at the Clippers as 9-point dogs, so I don't see why it can't win tonight.


    The Psychology. Edge: Knicks.
    The Knicks are playing like a team for the first time this season.


    The Vegas. Edge: Knicks.
    Four-fifths of the NBA gamblers are playing the host.
  • Percentage of money on Sacramento: 73% (6,000 bets)


    Prediction: Knicks 87, Kings 80
    Knicks +2.5 (3 Units) -- Incorrect; -$330
    Kings 123, Knicks 118.



  • Thursday, Nov. 15, 2007 (1-0, +$300)


    Chicago Bulls (1-5) at Phoenix Suns (6-2)
    Line: Suns by 9.

    Walt's Projected Line: Suns -9.5.
    Thursday, 10:35 ET

    There's a good amount of action on the Suns, but it appears as though the books are trying to level the cash out a bit. Vegas opened the line at -8, which has since risen to -9. That tells you the people in the know think Phoenix is the right side.


    The Psychology. Edge: Bulls.
    Possible Look-Ahead Alert as Phoenix plays Houston on Saturday.


    The Vegas. Edge: Bulls.
    Four-fifths of the NBA gamblers are playing the host.
  • Percentage of money on Phoenix: 79% (9,000 bets)


    Prediction: Suns 112, Bulls 97
    Suns -9 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300
    Suns 112, Bulls 102.



  • Wednesday, Nov. 14, 2007 (1-1, -$240)


    Utah Jazz (6-2) at Toronto Raptors (4-3)
    Line: Jazz by 1.5.

    Walt's Projected Line: Jazz -4.
    Wednesday, 7:05 ET

    I made this line Utah -4; the Jazz were favorites of 6.5 at Seattle and underdogs of one at the Lakers, so I figured this spread would be somewhere in between. Well, the line is -1.5 - and people are all over Utah.

    One thing I'm looking at is the Jazz's schedule. The teams they've beaten are a combined 9-22 straight up and 13-21 against the spread. Pretty horrific. The Raptors at least won in New Jersey and kept the Celtics to three.


    The Psychology. Edge: Raptors.
    Possible Look-Ahead Alert as Utah plays Cleveland on Friday.


    The Vegas. Edge: Raptors.
    Everyone is betting the Jazz on this short line.
  • Percentage of money on Utah: 87% (6,000 bets)


    Prediction: Raptors 95, Jazz 90
    Raptors +1.5 (4 Units) -- Incorrect; -$440
    Jazz 92, Raptors 88.


    New Jersey Nets (4-3) at Boston Celtics (6-0)
    Line: Celtics by 10.5.

    Walt's Projected Line: Celtics -10.
    Wednesday, 7:35 ET

    OK, so I'm breaking my vow to pick one NBA game per night. Sue me. But as I wrote yesterday, I'm going to take the Celtics until they stop covering. Only one of their six victories has been decided by single digits. They're just so much better than anyone they're playing right now. Plus, if you look at the line movement, it's actually matching where the public is going, so the oddsmaker looks a little scared and wants action on the Nets.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    These teams hate each other, so they'll both be focused.


    The Vegas. Edge: Celtics.
    The public loves the Celtics.
  • Percentage of money on Boston: 89% (10,000 bets)


    Prediction: Celtics 100, Nets 84
    Celtics -10 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200
    Celtics 91, Nets 69.



  • Tuesday, Nov. 13, 2007 (1-0, +$200)


    Boston Celtics (5-0) at Indiana Pacers (3-3)
    Line: Celtics by 7.

    Walt's Projected Line: Celtics -4.5.
    Tuesday, 7:05 ET

    I've decided to go with Boston. The line opened at -5 and increased to -7, so Vegas looks like it wants people to go the other way. Plus, the Celtics might be like the Patriots right now - keep betting them because they're so much better than everyone else.


    The Psychology. Edge: Pacers.
    This game for Boston is sandwiched in between two games with the archrival Nets.


    The Vegas. Edge: Pacers.
    Four-fifths of the public likes the Hornets because Carter will miss the game. I'll go the other way.
  • Percentage of money on Boston: 92% (16,000 bets)


    Prediction: Celtics 114, Pacers 97
    Celtics -7 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200
    Celtics 101, Pacers 86.



  • Monday, Nov. 12, 2007 (0-0-1, -$30)


    New Orleans Hornets (5-3) at New Jersey Nets (5-2)
    Line: Hornets by 2.

    Walt's Projected Line: Nets -3.
    Monday, 7:35 ET

    The line is off, but that's because Vince Carter is out. With that in mind, I like the Nets. We've seen this in the NFL; teams play harder with major personnel out. Jacksonville upset Tampa Bay when Quinn Gray made his first start. I'll take the line value with New Jersey.


    The Psychology. Edge: Nets.
    The Nets will play harder than the Hornets. New Jersey will also attempt to rebound off a home loss to Boston.


    The Vegas. Edge: Nets.
    Four-fifths of the public likes the Hornets because Carter will miss the game. I'll go the other way.
  • Percentage of money on New Orleans: 78% (8,000 bets)


    Prediction: Nets 84, Hornets 78
    Nets +2 (3 Units) -- Push; -$30
    Hornets 84, Nets 82.



  • Sunday, Nov. 11, 2007 (0-2, -$330)


    Cleveland Cavaliers (3-3) at Los Angeles Clippers (4-1)
    Line: Pick. Total: 192.

    Walt's Projected Line: Clippers -3.
    Sunday, 9:35 ET

    The Cavaliers did nothing this offseason. However, the public, infatuated with LeBron James, continued to overrated them. The team's 2-4 against-the-spread record reflects that.

    Meanwhile, the Clippers have covered every game this year, save for one. I think they're the better team, and because Cleveland is overhyped, we're getting a really favorable line.

    I'm also going with the Under for a small play. The total dropped four points, even though there's equal action on the over-under, meaning Vegas wants to induce the public into betting Over.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: Cavaliers.
    Equal action.
  • Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 60% (11,000 bets)


    Prediction: Clippers 90, Cavaliers 84
    Clippers PK (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
    Under 192 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
    Cavaliers 103, Clippers 95.



  • Saturday, Nov. 10, 2007 (2-0, +$300)


    Toronto Raptors (3-3) at Chicago Bulls (1-4)
    Line: Bulls by 6.5. Total: 189.5.

    Walt's Projected Line: Bulls -3.
    Saturday, 8:30 ET

    The Bulls have struggled all year. They had one good game against Chicago, and they're supposed to be great again? Not buying it.

    We're not getting much of an edge with the Vegas. However, I do love the Under because the total dropped 1.5 points despite the fact that more than 80 percent is on the Over.


    The Psychology. Edge: Raptors.
    The Bulls just beat archrival Detroit, and they have a West Coast trip coming up. Sandwich Situation.


    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Equal action.
  • Percentage of money on Chicago: 57% (8,000 bets)


    Prediction: Bulls 91, Raptors 87
    Raptors +6.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Under 189.5 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200
    Raptors 101, Bulls 71.



  • Friday, Nov. 9, 2007 (1-1, -$280)


    San Antonio Spurs (4-1) at New Orleans Hornets (4-1)
    Line: Spurs by 3.5. Total: 187.

    Walt's Projected Line: Spurs -6.
    Friday, 8:05 ET

    The Spurs were favored by two over Houston, so I figured that the Rockets were about four points better than the Hornets. I made this line Spurs -6.

    Well, the spread is 2.5 points lower than that. The soft line is enticing the public to take San Antonio, as evidenced in the Vegas section.

    I feel as though the Spurs are overrated right now. They're 1-4 against the spread this year, failing to cover against winless and Dwayne Wade-less Miami, Portland and Memphis. The Hornets, meanwhile, are 4-1. This is their Super Bowl. Beating San Antonio means everything to them.


    The Psychology. Edge: Hornets.
    The biggest game of the year for the Hornets in the early going. They can prove that they are legitimate by beating the defending world champions.


    The Vegas. Edge: Hornets.
    As I suspected, most people are on the visitor.
  • Percentage of money on San Antonio: 88% (7,000 bets)


    Prediction: Hornets 88, Spurs 84
    Hornets +3.5 (3 Units) -- Incorrect; -$330
    Under 187 (.5 Units) -- Correct; +$50
    Spurs 97, Hornets 85.



  • Thursday, Nov. 8, 2007 (1-1, +$90)


    Detroit Pistons (3-0) at Chicago Bulls (0-4)
    Line: Pistons by 1. Total: 182.

    Walt's Projected Line: Pistons -4.
    Thursday, 8:05 ET

    As I mentioned in the write-up of yesterday's selection, I've decided to make my own lines for every game and investiage the ones where the spread is off by three or more. Washington-New Jersey applied - I made the Nets -9 - but there's about equal action on that game.

    As for this contest, I made Detroit a 4-point favorite. The Bulls are winless and have been blown out in almost every single contest. I was appalled to see Detroit favored by one. The public consequently is pounding the visitor at an 86-percent clip.

    You almost have to take the Bulls, right? Seems like an obvious trap. Chicago isn't untalented; it just has gotten off to a slow start in the wake of the Kobe Bryant trade rumors. If the Bulls don't regroup for the squad that knocked them out of the playoffs last year, I don't think they ever will.


    The Psychology. Edge: Bulls.
    This is a Revenge Situation for the Bulls, as Detroit knocked them out of the postseason in the spring of 2007.


    The Vegas. Edge: Bulls.
    As I suspected, most people are on the visitor.
  • Percentage of money on Detroit: 86% (12,000 bets)


    Prediction: Bulls 93, Pistons 87
    Bulls +1 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200
    Under 182 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
    Bulls 97, Pistons 93.



  • Wednesday, Nov. 7, 2007 (2-0, +$500)


    New Orleans Hornets (4-0) at Portland Blazers (0-3)
    Line: Hornets by 3.

    Walt's Projected Line: Hornets -6.
    Wednesday, 10:30 ET

    So, the first thing I'm going to do when I check out the NBA games each night is attempt to guess a line for each contest. Seeing as how the Hornets are undefeated and the Blazers are winless, I said Hornets -6.

    I stared in disbelief when I saw that New Orleans was favored by only three points. The Hornets are undefeated, so everyone has to be betting them tonight. I was right when I saw that most of the public is on the Hornets (check the Vegas).

    Portland, despite being winless, is underrated. The team, 2-1 against the spread, lost to San Antonio and Houston by 9. Their other defeat was at New Orleans, 113-93. Now, they get the Hornets as home underdogs.


    The Psychology. Edge: Blazers.
    Not only is this a Revenge Situation for the Blazers, the Hornets are in a Look-Ahead Alert, given that they play San Antonio in two nights.


    The Vegas. Edge: Blazers.
    As I suspected, most people are on the visitor.
  • Percentage of money on New Orleans: 91% (8,000 bets)


    Prediction: Blazers 94, Hornets 90
    Blazers +3 (4 Units) -- Correct; +$400
    Under 202 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Blazers 93, Hornets 90.



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