Because I watch line movements and where the money is going, it's impossible for me to post an NBA selection
around 5:30 on weeknights. Last Week's Winnings (March 3-9):
2-4, -$380 2007-08 Season Winnings (as of March 9):
52-52-3, 50.0% (-$1,070)
Friday, Feb. 29, 2008 (1-0, +$300)
Memphis Grizzlies (14-43) at Houston Rockets (37-20)
Line: Rockets by 13.5.
With Yao Ming done for the year, everyone is writing off the Rockets. I think they have something to prove, so they become the second team to take their frustrations out on poor little Memphis.
Rockets 97, Grizzlies 80
Rockets -13.5 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300
Thursday, Feb. 28, 2008 (0-1, -$220)
Milwaukee Bucks (22-35) at New Jersey Nets (25-32)
Line: Nets by 3.5.
The Nets are always a good fade at home, where they are 9-19 against the spread (5-11 ATS as a home favorite).
Bucks 95, Nets 94
Bucks +3.5 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
Wednesday, Feb. 27, 2008 (1-0, +$300)
Phoenix Suns (39-18) at New Orleans Hornets (37-18)
Line: Hornets by 3.
Let's keep going with studying the Suns. I picked them yesterday because I thought they had something to prove. Now, I believe they are the inferior squad in this matchup. They're done with Shaq, who doesn't fit in this system.
Hornets 98, Suns 89
Hornets -3 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300
Tuesday, Feb. 26, 2008 (1-1, +$180)
Sacramento Kings (26-29) at Miami Heat (9-45)
Line: Kings by 1.5.
Two picks today to make up for none yesterday. This isn't really a play on Sacramento as much as a fade on Miami. The Heat traded for Shawn Marion, a player who fit Phoenix's scheme perfectly. Marion, however, is not that good of a player, and hence has struggled in South Beach. Miami is a lot worse than it was before, which is saying a lot.
Magic 101, Heat 88
Kings -1.5 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
Phoenix Suns (38-18) at Memphis Grizzlies (14-42)
Line: Suns by 10.
Run! The sky is falling in Phoenix! Look, I stated that the Shaq trade was dumb from Day 1. Yeah, let's trade for an old, injury-prone guy who doesn't fit our system! Great idea! Well, now that everyone sees how stupid that deal was, all the talk shows on ESPN are criticizing Phoenix for dealing Shawn Marion. The Suns have something to prove here and I think they take it out on poor little Memphis.
Suns 119, Grizzlies 98
Suns -10 (4 Units) -- Correct; +$400
Sunday, Feb. 24, 2008 (0-1, -$330)
Sacramento Kings (26-28) at Orlando Magic (35-22)
Line: Magic by 6.5.
This line seems short, doesn't it? Well, perhaps Vegas is following my drift that the Kings are going to play really well for the next few weeks in the wake of the Mike Bibby trade.
Magic 104, Kings 101
Kings +6.5 (3 Units) -- Incorrect; -$330
Saturday, Feb. 23, 2008 (1-0, +$300)
New Orleans Hornets (37-15) at San Antonio Spurs (36-17)
Line: Spurs by 6.
This is major revenge for the Spurs, who were completely destroyed by the Hornets in their last meeting. I think San Antonio has a lot to prove, as everyone is talking about every other team in the Western Conference.
Spurs 96, Hornets 81
Spurs -6 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300
Friday, Feb. 22, 2008 (0-1-1, -$350)
Sacramento Kings (25-28) at Charlotte Bobcats (19-35)
Line: Kings by 1.
As I noted two nights ago, I expect the Kings to go on a tear in the wake of losing Mike Bibby. Teams for whatever reason seem to band together after losing a top-notch player to a trade. Just look at how the 76ers tore it up after dealing Allen Iverson last year.
Kings 101, Bobcats 94
Kings -1 (2 Units) -- Push; -$20
Utah Jazz (35-19) at Los Angeles Clippers (18-33)
Line: Jazz by 5.
The fact that no one, with the exception of Charles Barkey, is talking about the Jazz being the best team in the NBA is ridiculous. They're playing better than anyone else right now, and unlike New Orleans, they have playoff experience. Robbing the 76ers blind by taking Kyle Korver away from them put them over the top. I think it's a race between Utah and the Lakers. At any rate, I'm going to keep siding with the Jazz until they stop covering.
Jazz 106, Clippers 94
Jazz -5 (3 Units) -- Incorrect; -$330
Thursday, Feb. 21, 2008 (0-1, -$330)
San Antonio Spurs (35-17) at Minnesota Timberwolves (11-41)
Line: Spurs by 8.
Every team in the West seems to have acquired a superstar - except for San Antonio, that is. I think the Spurs have something to prove now - which would explain why they've covered three in a row and completely slaughtered the Bobcats two nights ago. This should be a blowout all the way.
Spurs 96, Timberwolves 83
Spurs -8 (3 Units) -- Incorrect; -$330
Wednesday, Feb. 20, 2008 (1-0, +$300)
Atlanta Hawks (22-29) at Sacramento Kings (24-28)
Line: Kings by 5.5.
The Kings traded Mike Bibby away, so they're going to start sucking, right? I don't think so - we've seen in the past that teams band together when their best player is traded. Just look at last year's 76ers after Allen Iverson was dealt. Let's take advantage of Atlanta's road ineptness (9-15 ATS) and back the Kings.
Kings 100, Hawks 89
Kings -5.5 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300
Tuesday, Feb. 19, 2008 (1-0, +$200)
Golden State Warriors (32-20) at Utah Jazz (34-19)
Line: Jazz by 6.5.
The Jazz have been excellent against the spread ever since robbing the 76ers blind in the Kyle Korver trade. I think they keep covering - in my opinion, they're the best team in the NBA right now.
Jazz 106, Warriors 96
Jazz -6.5 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200
Thursday, Feb. 14, 2008 (1-0, +$500)
Miami Heat (9-42) at Chicago Bulls (20-31)
Line: Bulls by 2.
Well, my premise was right. Hosts were 11-3 against the spread with the first-half line yesterday. Unfortunately, I picked one of the wrong ones.
Bulls 94, Heat 85
Bulls -1 1st Half (5 Units) -- Correct; +$500
Wednesday, Feb. 13, 2008 (1-1, -$50)
Atlanta Hawks (22-27) at Charlotte Bobcats (18-34)
Line: Bobcats by 1.
A thing I LOVE to use in baseball is betting on each home team the day before the All-Star break. The road squads don't care; they just want to get out of there. The Hawks will probably have their cars running in the parking lot. Bet every host today.
Bobcats 101, Hawks 86
Bobcats -1 (5 Units) -- Correct; +$500
Washington Bullets (24-27) at Los Angeles Clippers (17-32)
Line: Clippers by 3.
Taking another home team. I wanted one late game.
Clippers 99, Wizards 90
Clippers -3 (5 Units) -- Incorrect; -$550
Tuesday, Feb. 12, 2008 (1-0, +$200)
Minnesota Timberwolves (10-39) at New Jersey Nets (22-29)
Line: Nets by 6.5.
I think this spread should be three or four, as Minnesota is 8-2-1 against the spread in its previous 11. The Nets are overrated, in my opinion (which doesn't mean anything here because my NBA picks suck).
Nets 94, Timberwolves 93
Timberwolves +6.5 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200
Monday, Feb. 11, 2008 (0-1, -$220)
Dallas Mavericks (34-16) at Philadelphia 76ers (21-30)
Line: Mavericks by 3.5.
My NBA picks have sucked recently, so hopefully I get back to how well I was doing at the beginning of the year. We have now entered the Twilight Zone. Why is Dallas just 3.5 over the 76ers? I don't get it.
Mavericks 100, 76ers 99
76ers +1.5 1st Half (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
Friday, Feb. 8, 2008 (0-1, -$110)
New Jersey Nets (20-29) at Charlotte Bobcats (18-31)
Line: Bobcats by 4.
I'm lowering the amount of units for NBA games until I snap out of my slump and figure out what I'm doing. I like the Bobcats here. They haven't covered in four games, but they've pretty much played close to the spread. The Nets, on the other hand, have been getting " Blowed Out
Bobcats 101, Nets 93
Bobcats -4 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
Thursday, Feb. 7, 2008 (0-1, -$330)
Miami Heat (9-39) at Philadelphia 76ers (19-30)
Line: 76ers by 9.5.
This is a joke, right? Sixers favored by 9.5? They've won by more than eight just once since the New Year. I'm taking the points. I don't care. However, I'm going the full game because the 76ers usually jump out in front and screw up at the end. Trust me, I know. I was a fan until the dumb Kyle Korver trade.
76ers 94, Heat 93
Heat +9.5 (3 Units) -- Incorrect; -$330
Wednesday, Feb. 6, 2008 (0-1, -$330)
Utah Jazz (31-18) at Denver Nuggets (29-18)
Line: Nuggets by 2.5.
Everyone is saying how great the Jazz are. Everyone's singing their praises. They just beat the darling Hornets, so everyone's jumping on their bandwagon. With that in mind, don't you find it odd that they're underdogs to an inferior team?
Nuggets 111, Jazz 105
Nuggets -1 1st Half (3 Units) -- Incorrect; -$330
Tuesday, Feb. 5, 2008 (0-1, -$220)
Boston Celtics (36-8) at Cleveland Cavaliers (26-20)
Line: Cavaliers by 3.5.
Any time a great team like the Celtics are underdogs, the public is going to back them at an alarming rate. That's what happening here. Yet, the Cavaliers have risen from -2 to -3.5 in some places.
Cavaliers 97, Celtics 92
Cavaliers -1.5 1st Half (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
Monday, Feb. 4, 2008 (0-1, -$220)
Dallas Mavericks (31-15) at Orlando Magic (31-18)
Line: Magic by 4.5.
When I looked at this spread, I thought to myself, "Wow, people must be betting the Mavericks like crazy." I was correct - close to 70 percent of the money is on Dallas. Yet, the line has jumped from -3 to -4.5.
Magic 109, Mavericks 100
Magic -2 1st Half (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
Saturday, Feb. 2, 2008 (0-1, -$110)
New York Knicks (14-32) at Seattle Sonics (11-35)
Line: Sonics by 3.5.
I like the way the Sonics are playing right now. They've won two in a row and covered five of six. I don't trust the Knicks to show up and beat a team they're supposed to easily dispatch.
Sonics 102, Knicks 94
Sonics -2 1st Half (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
Friday, Feb. 1, 2008 (1-0, +$200)
New Orleans Hornets (32-13) at Sacramento Kings (20-24)
Line: Hornets by 2.5.
Another very shady line, as tons of square bettors are lining up to gamble on the Hornets. Can you blame them though? All the visitor has to do is win by three or more. This spread should at least be seven. Instead, it's way too low and moving the other way (nearly 90 percent of the cash in Vegas is on New Orleans).
Kings 100, Hornets 99
Kings +1.5 1st Half (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200
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