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Season: 2011-12: Whole Season
2010-11: Whole Season
2009-10: February to April - October to January
2008-09: October to March - April to June
2007-08: November - December - January - February - March - April - May
2006-07: November - December - January - February - March - April - May/June
Sunday, Dec. 31, 2006 (0-1, -$110)
Dallas Mavericks (23-7) at Denver Nuggets (16-11).
Line: Mavericks by 5½.
First of all, Happy New Years to everyone reading this. I'm going with Dallas here, even though this seems like a very square bet. The Mavericks, who are perfect off no rest, play extremely well on the road, and should be able to take care of short-handed Denver.
Prediction: Mavericks -5½.
Saturday, Dec. 30, 2006 (1-4, -$315)
Charlotte Bobcats (8-21) at Indiana Pacers (17-14).
Line: Pacers by 10½.
One thing that has worked this season is going against the Bobcats after they win a game; they're 0-7 straight up, 1-6 ATS in those situations.
Prediction: Pacers -10½.
Minnesota Timberwolves (13-14) at New Jersey Nets (12-18).
Line: Timberwolves +115; Nets by 2½.
The Nets are worthless against the West, and they struggle on the latter end of a back-to-back. The Timberwolves should be able to win tonight.
Prediction: Timberwolves +115.
Toronto Raptors (13-17) at Memphis Grizzlies (6-24).
Line: Raptors +200; Grizzlies -5½.
This is a late addition, as I just noticed that Toronto is +200 on the money line. That's pretty ridiculous, seeing as how Memphis has won just two games this month.
Prediction: Raptors +200.
Cleveland Cavaliers (17-11) at Chicago Bulls (18-12).
Line: Bulls by 5 (+100).
Let's see... the Cavs are awful on the end of a back-to-back (1-6 straight up and ATS), while the Bulls are pretty solid in that situation. Cleveland stinks on the road; Chicago's great at home. Knowing my luck, the Cavs will probably win, but I have to back the Bulls.
Prediction: Bulls -5 +100.
Portland Blazers (13-17) at Utah Jazz (21-9).
Line: Jazz by 11 (-105).
Utah lost to San Antonio because the Spurs were coming off a loss. Now, the Jazz will look to respond to a defeat; they're 7-1 after going down.
Prediction: Jazz -11 -105.
Friday, Dec. 29, 2006 (2-3, -$130)
Los Angeles Lakers (19-10) at Charlotte Bobcats (7-21).
Line: Lakers by 5.
There is a system out there that works about 75 percent of the time. All you have to do is bet on winning teams at the end of a road trip (three games or more), and go against losing teams in that same situation. The Lakers are one of the best teams in the league, so you should ride them tonight.
Prediction: Lakers -5.
Chicago Bulls (17-12) at Toronto Raptors (13-16).
Line: Bulls by 2.
We've been over this before. The Bulls suck on the road. They even lost to the Knicks, who were missing almost every single player on the roster. And sshhhh... don't tell anyone, but the Raptors have won six of eight.
Prediction: Raptors +2.
Milwaukee Bucks (15-14) at Cleveland Cavaliers (16-11).
Line: Cavaliers by 5.
The system that is on tap for the Lakers-Bobcats also works in this spot. I know the Bucks barely have a winning record, but I feel confident wagering on them, given how well they've played. They've won six in a row, which includes a victory at San Antonio.
Prediction: Bucks +5.
New York Knicks (13-18) at Phoenix Suns (19-8).
Line: Suns by 12.
Two things work here: The Knicks are a pitiful 3-9 (straight up and ATS) after a victory, while the Suns play well on the latter end of a back-to-back sequence. I know this spread is large, but I'm expecting a blowout.
Prediction: Suns -12.
Boston Celtics (10-17) at Golden State Warriors (15-15).
Line: Warriors by 9½.
A terrible Eastern Conference team versus a mediocre Western Conference team? I wonder what could possibly happen. In case you're wondering, the Celtics are 2-7 (straight up and ATS) against the West.
Prediction: Warriors -9½.
Thursday, Dec. 28, 2006 (0-1, -$110)
Seattle Sonics (12-17) at Denver Nuggets (15-10).
Line: Nuggets by 8½.
I know Ray Allen won't be playing tonight, but that's why this line is so inflated. I think the Nuggets will take Seattle lightly.
Prediction: Sonics +8½.
Wednesday, Dec. 27, 2006 (1-1, -$10)
Los Angeles Lakers (18-10) at Orlando Magic (17-12).
Line: Magic by 1.
One of the angles that has worked for me so far is taking the Lakers off a loss; they're 7-2 in those situations. Meanwhile, the Magic are just 4-8 since Dec. 3.
Prediction: Lakers +1.
Detroit Pistons (18-8) at New York Knicks (12-18).
Line: Pistons by 3 (1st Half).
It was almost cute how the Knicks rallied together after the Melee at Madison Square. They managed to beat Utah, Charlotte and Chicago... and then they were squashed at Philadelphia. The Pistons will obliterate the short-handed Knicks tonight. I'm taking the first-half line because Detroit played last night and could be tired in the second half.
Prediction: Pistons -3 (1st Half).
Tuesday, Dec. 26, 2006 (2-3, -$110)
Houston Rockets (16-11) at Indiana Pacers (15-14).
Line: Rockets +185; Pacers by 5.
I know the Rockets will be missing Yao Ming, but they're 9-1 versus the East, and 8-2 after a straight-up loss. Besides, they're better on the road than they are at home.
Prediction: Rockets +185.
New Jersey Nets (11-16) at Detroit Pistons (17-8).
Line: Pistons by 7.
The Pistons are on a tear; they're 7-3 this month. They should demolish the Nets, who have severe problems playing on the road.
Prediction: Pistons -7.
Chicago Bulls (16-11) at Minnesota Wolves (11-13).
Line: Wolves by 1.
Situational play against the Bulls: They're 4-9 on the road (3-10 ATS) and 3-7 against the West (2-8 ATS).
Prediction: Wolves -1.
Los Angeles Clippers (11-15) at Utah Jazz (20-8).
Line: Jazz by 7½.
I've talked about some teams that have had problems on the road. The Clippers trump them all in that department; they're 2-9 as visitors, and have been outscored by an average of 11.7 points.
Prediction: Jazz -7½.
New Orleans Hornets (11-15) at Seattle Sonics (11-17).
Line: Hornets +230; Sonics by 6.
It's pretty ridiculous that the Hornets are a +230 dog against the Sonics. I mean, these two squads are essentially equal. Great value at +230.
Prediction: Hornets +230.
Saturday, Dec. 23, 2006 (2-3, -$130)
New York Knicks (6-19) at Philadelphia 76ers (6-19).
Line: 76ers by 2½.
The worst team in the NBA is favored over someone? I don't care who it is -- I'm going with that team. New York is actually 3-0 since the Melee at Madison Square, while the 76ers are 0-7 on the end of a back-to-back set.
Prediction: Knicks +2½.
San Antonio Spurs (20-7) at New Orleans Hornets (11-14).
Line: Spurs by 5 (1st Half).
I love the Spurs on the road, and I love them coming off a loss. The Hornets, meanwhile, absolutely suck in the second game off a back-to-back. By taking the first-half line, I'm taking the back-door cover out of the equation. Plus, if San Antonio shows up, it'll be in the first half.
Prediction: Spurs -5 (1st Half).
Utah Jazz (19-8) at Memphis Grizzlies (6-21).
Line: Jazz by 4.
Like the Spurs, the Jazz are almost perfect coming off a loss. They showed no effort last night, so I'm expecting something different from Jerry Sloan's bunch. Oh, and Memphis sucks. That always helps.
Prediction: Jazz -4.
Best Bet No. 1.
Charlotte Bobcats (7-18) at Chicago Bulls (15-11).
Line: Bulls by 10½.
This has blowout written all over it. As I mentioned a few days ago, Charlotte does too much partying off a win; they're 0-6 (1-5 ATS) in those situations. The Bulls, meanwhile, will be angry after losing to New York as a heavy favorite.
Prediction: Bulls -10½.
Toronto Raptors (12-15) at Seattle Sonics (10-17).
Line: Raptors +150 (1st Half).
The Raptors are actually +2½ for the first half, but +150 seems like a great bargain. Toronto has quietly won five of six, and I think that streak continues against the Sonics, who can't seem to do anything right without Ray Allen, especially at home where they are 4-8 ATS. I'm taking the first-half line because the Raptors' legs may be tired in the second half.
Prediction: Raptors +150 (1st Half).
Best Bet No. 2.
Friday, Dec. 22, 2006 (1-2, -$120)
Utah Jazz (19-7) at Charlotte Bobcats (6-18).
Line: Jazz by 6½.
I feel like a complete square and a moron for taking this big road favorite, but let's look at the facts: The Bobcats are 1-8 against the West, and have been outscored in those nine contests by an average of 14 points. This is a huge mismatch.
Prediction: Jazz -6½.
Los Angeles Lakers (17-9) at New Jersey Nets (11-14).
Line: Nets by 2 (First Half).
I can't believe the Nets are favored. Not only can't they play against Western Conference teams, they're also horrific off straight-up victories. I'm taking the Lakers in the first half; their legs may get tired in the second.
Prediction: Lakers +2 (First Half).
Washington Wizards (12-12) at Phoenix Suns (18-6).
Line: Suns by 10.
There have been three instances this season when the Wizards were faced with a back-to-back set of games in which they won the first. In all three cases, the results have been disastrous. The Suns are 2-2 ATS as double-digit favorites in case you were wondering.
Prediction: Suns -10.
Thursday, Dec. 21, 2006 (0-1, -$110)
Detroit Pistons (15-8) at Cleveland Cavaliers (14-9).
Line: Cavaliers by 3.
I guess I can't complain about second-half collapses anymore, huh? Miami suffered one, but Memphis and Dallas actually came back for me.
The Pistons are coming off three days rest, while the Cavaliers just played last night. You bet the former, right? Well, not in this case. Detroit has been really rusty and lethargic off long rest periods, failing to cover in all four instances. Meanwhile, Cleveland, 11-2 as a host, is just 1-5 in the end of a back-to-back. Looking closely, all five of those losses were on the road. The sole victory was at home. I think the Cavaliers get errr done.
Prediction: Cavaliers -3.
Wednesday, Dec. 20, 2006 (2-1, +$90)
Memphis Grizzlies (6-19) at San Antonio Spurs (19-6).
Line: Spurs by 12½.
I actually wrote this before the Lakers pulled in within 5½: "How many times can NBA teams blow it for me in the 4Q???? Yesterday it was the Warriors. Now the Lakers are choking like Aurora Snow. Arggghghghghhh." By the way, the Aurora Snow thing is Grand Theft Reference, as ESPN's Bill Simmons used it about a month ago.
Twelve-and-a-half points is a bit too much against a team that has just gotten back its best player; I mean, it's no accident the Grizzlies just beat the Sonics by 8. As a double-digit home favorite, the Spurs are just 1-3 ATS. I'll take the points.
Prediction: Grizzlies +12½.
Miami Heat (11-13) at Milwaukee Bucks (10-14).
Line: Bucks by 2.
As you can tell by their record, the Bucks don't win too often. When they do, I guess they do too much partying because they are just 1-8 (2-7 ATS) the next game off a victory. Well, Milwaukee just beat Minnesota. Meanwhile, I expect the Heat to get rolling now that Dwyane Wade is back in the lineup.
Prediction: Heat +2.
Dallas Mavericks (18-7) at Seattle Sonics (10-16).
Line: Mavericks by 5½.
This is a very square bet, but I've actually done well with those. The Mavericks are incredible on the road. And in case you're wondering, the Sonics were home underdogs once this year. They lost 98-78.
Prediction: Mavericks -5½.
Tuesday, Dec. 19, 2006 (1-0, +$100)
Los Angeles Lakers (12-13) at Chicago Bulls (14-10).
Line: Bulls by 5½.
I'm tired of these bad beats. The Warriors were up eight as 6-point underdogs yesterday. I felt pretty confident. Of course, they blow it all in the fourth quarter and lose by eight. Argh!
As for this game, I expect Magic Johnson and James Worthy to take it to Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen. Michael Cooper will be the wildcard. Sorry, flashback. Seriously though, Chicago struggles against the West, while the Lakers bounce back well off outright losses.
Prediction: Lakers +5½.
Monday, Dec. 18, 2006 (2-1, +$90)
Golden State Warriors (12-13) at New Jersey Nets (9-14).
Line: Nets by 6.
A few cool trends and the reasoning behind each: Nets are 5-9 ATS at home (They are actually outscored by an average margin of 0.4 at home -- because they stink); Nets are 2-6 ATS this month (they really stink this month); and Nets are 2-7 ATS vs. the Western Conference (along with the Nets, everyone in the East stinks).
Prediction: Warriors +6.
New Orleans Hornets (10-12) at Miami Heat (10-13).
Line: Heat by 7½.
Like the Nets, Miami has been outscored at home, which is really bizarre. Given that fact, who are they to be laying 7½ against anyone? The Hornets' success against the Eastern Conference will continue.
Prediction: Hornets +7½.
Dallas Mavericks (17-7) at Sacramento Kings (10-12).
Line: Mavericks by 3½.
This is a square bet, so I'd like to apologize in advance. I like the Mavericks -- they're great on the road, while the Kings have faltered as a home underdog. I considered Phoenix -2 over Sacramento a few nights ago, but stayed away because it looked like a sucker bet. I'm not going to repeat that.
Prediction: Mavericks -3½.
Sunday, Dec. 17, 2006 (0-2, -$220)
Seattle Sonics (10-14) at Detroit Pistons (14-8).
Line: Pistons by 6½.
The Sonics have played well on the road, but I think they're finally running out of gas after playing without Ray Allen. Meanwhile, the Pistons have done a remarkable job in the back end of back-to-back games, especially coming off a victory.
Prediction: Pistons -6½.
Washington Wizards (11-11) at Los Angeles Lakers (16-7).
Line: Lakers by 5.
I like the west-versus-east part of this matchup, and the fact that the Lakers are playing at home, where they've been really strong.
Prediction: Lakers -5.
Saturday, Dec. 16, 2006 (1-1, -$10)
Boston Celtics (9-13) at Charlotte Bobcats (6-16).
Line: Bobcats by 2½.
The Bobcats are favored? What!? That only happened once this year, and they lost 102-93 to Miami. The Celtics have played well lately, especially on the road, and they should be able to win their 10th tonight.
Prediction: Celtics +2½.
Philadelphia 76ers (5-17) at San Antonio (18-6).
Line: Spurs by 9 (1H).
The spread for this game is way too high (16½) and could easily get backdoored. But I like the first-half line of nine. The Spurs should be able to jump out ahead of an Allen Iverson-less 76ers squad.
Prediction: Spurs -9 1st Half.
Friday, Dec. 15, 2006 (2-2, -$20)
New York Knicks (9-15) at Indiana Pacers (12-12).
Line: Pacers by 6.
If you've bet against the Knicks after each of their victories, you'd be a rich man. The Pacers, who play really well at home, should be able to take care of business.
Prediction: Pacers -6.
Denver Nuggets (12-8) at Boston Celtics (8-13).
Line: Nuggets by 3.
You have to consider a Western conference team over an Eastern conference squad, but I have other reasons for taking the Nuggets. Boston stinks as a host, especially in the role of a home dog. The Nuggets, meanwhile, have thrived as a visitor, even after their blowout loss to Washington.
Prediction: Nuggets -3.
Seattle Sonics (10-13) at Cleveland Cavaliers (13-8).
Line: Cavaliers by 8.
Do you realize that Cleveland is 8-13 against the spread this year? That's not surprising, as people love to bet on LeBron James. The Sonics aren't as bad as people think; they've hung with tough opponents on the road.
Prediction: Sonics +8.
Los Angeles Clippers (10-11) at Portland Blazers (10-14).
Line: Clippers by 3.
Doesn't it seem odd that a team that is 1-7 on the road happens to be a 3-point favorite over a squad with the same number of victories? Yet, two-thirds of the public is on the Clippers. I don't get it.
Prediction: Blazers +3.
Wednesday, Dec. 13, 2006 (0-3, -$330)
Charlotte Bobcats (5-15) at Cleveland Cavaliers (12-8).
Line: Cavaliers by 11.
Charlotte has lost three in a row by at least 20 points -- all of which came at home. How are the Bobcats supposed to go on the road, where they've struggled, against a dominant Cleveland squad?
Prediction: Cavaliers -11.
Denver Nuggets (12-7) at Washington Wizards (9-11).
Line: Wizards by 3.
I think the wrong team is favored here. The Nuggets, who have played well on the road, should be able to take care of business against Washington.
Prediction: Nuggets +3.
Atlanta Hawks (8-12) at New York Knicks (8-15).
Line: Knicks by 7.
I don't care if Joe Johnson's not playing; the Knicks shouldn't be 7-point favorites over anyone.
Prediction: Hawks +7.
Tuesday, Dec. 12, 2006 (1-0, +$100)
Seattle Sonics (10-11) at Milwaukee Bucks (8-12).
Line: Bucks by 5.
My new strategy went 3-0 yesterday. I hope it keeps up. The Bucks aren't a good home team, while Seattle has played extremely well on the road.
Prediction: Sonics +5.
Monday, Dec. 11, 2006 (3-0, +$300)
Boston Celtics (6-13) at New York Knicks (8-14).
Line: Knicks by 2½.
I'm changing the way I do my NBA picks. Let's hope it works out. One of my new rules is to go against the Knicks at home; they're 3-8 against the spread at the Garden. It should not be a surprise that the Celtics won four of the previous five meetings in New York.
Prediction: Celtics +2½.
Cleveland Cavaliers (12-7) at New Orleans Hornets (9-10).
Line: Cavaliers by 5.
I don't know who Cleveland is to be laying five on the road; the Cavs can't even win at Cleveland, Washington or Indiana.
Prediction: Hornets +5.
San Antonio Spurs (15-6) at Los Angeles Clippers (10-9).
Line: Spurs by 2½.
Sorry for the square play, but the Spurs are money off a loss, and happen to be 8-3 against the spread on the road. I like them to rebound tonight.
Prediction: Spurs -2½.
Saturday, Dec. 9, 2006 (0-2, -$220)
Philadelphia 76ers (5-13) at Orlando Magic (14-7).
Line: Magic by 12.
How many games have I lost by one point this week? Five? Five hundred? Anyway, this is a very square play, but I'm going with the Magic. The 76ers are in disarray with the whole Allen Iverson situation, and Orlando is coming off two consecutive losses.
Prediction: Magic -12.
Los Angeles Clippers (9-9) at Memphis Grizzlies (5-14).
Line: Clippers by 2½.
With Memphis starting to show its true colors, you have to wonder why the Clippers are a slim 2½-point favorite. Vegas knows people think Memphis stinks. That's why all of the action is on the visitor.
Prediction: Grizzlies +2½.
Friday, Dec. 8, 2006 (1-1, -$10)
Utah Jazz (15-4) at Minnesota Timberwolves (8-9).
Line: Jazz by 1.
Wow, how much did last night's Nets-Suns loss hurt? New Jersey should have covered twice, as it took Phoenix to double overtime. Of course they lost by four, failing to cover by one point. Let's hope for better luck tonight; I like Minnesota over Utah. More than 85 percent of the public is on the Jazz because all they have to do is win.
Prediction: Wolves +1.
Memphis Grizzlies (5-13) at Milwaukee Bucks (7-11).
Line: Bucks by 5.
The Grizzlies continue to play well and be overrated because of their pathetic record. Milwaukee has beaten only one winning team since its season opener. Memphis should be able to keep this close -- or even pull off the mild upset.
Prediction: Grizzlies +5.
Thursday, Dec. 7, 2006 (0-2, -$220)
Phoenix Suns (10-6) at New Jersey Nets (7-10).
Line: Suns by 3.
Let's see... Suns have won seven in a row; Nets have lost seven of nine. Suns are 10-6; Nets are 7-10. Suns -3? Yeah, seems right to me.
Prediction: Nets +3.
Miami Heat (7-10) at Sacramento Kings (8-9).
Line: Kings by 4½.
The Heat, despite being 7-10, are still a public team. Sacramento? Not so much... the Kings have dropped four in a row. I think the books made this line too high, which has induced a lot of action on Miami. Maybe they know something we don't.
Prediction: Kings -4½.
Tuesday, Dec. 5, 2006 (0-1, -$110)
Dallas Mavericks (12-5) at New Jersey Nets (7-9).
Line: Mavericks by 2½.
As long as the books keep setting ridiculous numbers on Mavericks games that induce the public to bet Dallas' way, I'll keep fading.
Prediction: Nets +2½.
Monday, Dec. 4, 2006 (1-1, -$10)
Dallas Mavericks (12-4) at Washington Wizards (6-10).
Line: Mavericks by 4.
It never ceases to amaze me how much Vegas cheats the public. You'd think that they would want to give back around Christmas time. It looks like they're doing just that, making Dallas a slim 4-point favorite over Washington. But Vegas is the Grinch; it wants you to take the Mavericks. Well, sorry Mr. Grinch, I'm going with Washington tonight.
Prediction: Wizards +4.
Indiana Pacers (9-9) at Los Angeles Lakers (11-5).
Line: Lakers by 7.
Shouldn't this spread be at least 10? The Lakers are one of the hottest teams in the NBA, having knocked off the Clippers and Jazz by an average of 19.5 points. Indiana, meanwhile, is coming off back-to-back losses to Seattle and Denver. No one in their right mind would take them.
Prediction: Pacers +7.
Sunday, Dec. 3, 2006 (1-0, +$100)
Detroit Pistons (11-5) at Charlotte Bobcats (4-12).
Line: Pistons by 4.
If the books wanted equal action on this game, they would have made the Pistons -8 or more. Everyone and their great aunt twice removed is on Detroit. Even Pinnacle has made the spread -4 +100. If you have no idea what I'm talking about, just take Charlotte.
Prediction: Bobcats +4.
Saturday, Dec. 2, 2006 (1-1, -$10)
Miami Heat (6-9) at Memphis Grizzlies (4-11).
Line: Grizzlies by 2½.
I've talked about Memphis playing better lately; the team was a huge underdog at Dallas, Cleveland, Houston, Denver and the Clippers, and managed to cover four out of those five. Now, the Grizzlies are a favorite, which is forcing the public to jump on the "better squad."
Prediction: Grizzlies -2½.
Sacramento Kings (8-6) at San Antonio Spurs (11-5).
Line: Spurs by 9.
Doesn't this line seem a bit low to you? The Spurs, who always beat the Kings, are coming off two losses, which is leading the public to believe they will bounce back with a huge effort. Maybe they will, but this is a Sacremento squad that still has revenge on its mind after losing to San Antonio in the playoffs.
Prediction: Kings +9.
Friday, Dec. 1, 2006 (1-2, -$120)
Cleveland Cavaliers (9-6) at Atlanta Hawks (6-7).
Line: Cavaliers by 3.
You gotta love the Cavaliers over the Hawks! They're only a 3-point favorite! They're sure to cover. Oops, I just got possessed by a square bettor. Sorry about that.
Prediction: Hawks +3.
Orlando Magic (12-4) at Portland Blazers (6-10).
Line: Magic by 4½.
Another shady line. Orlando, 12-4, has won nine of 10, while Portland, 6-10, is 2-8 since Nov. 12. Why is Orlando a slim 4½-point favorite? I'm taking Portland.
Prediction: Blazers +4½.
Indiana Pacers (9-7) at Seattle Sonics (6-10).
Line: Sonics by 3½.
It's Crappy NBA Team Friday on walterfootball.com! For my third pick, I'm going with the Sonics, who shouldn't be a 3½-point favorite over a winning team. Go Seattle!
Prediction: Sonics -3½.
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