Walters Football Site: NCAA Hoops Money Picks

NCAA Money Picks

Note: My record and links to other months can be found at the bottom of the page.

NCAA Championship (April 3, 2006) (1-0)

UCLA vs. Florida. Line: Florida by 1½.
9:21 ET

I thought Florida would blow George Mason out, but I did not think that UCLA could clobber LSU. While I was impressed by the Bruins, I don't think they will win the national championship. The Gators have the height with Joakim Noah to contend with the Bruins centers. However, the difference will be Florida's dynamic three-point shooting. UCLA has trouble defending the 3-point shot -- something that LSU could not exploit. The Gators will.

Prediction: Florida -1½.
Correct 1-0

Final Four (April 1, 2006) (1-1)

Florida vs. George Mason. Line: Florida by 6.
Final Four, 6:05

George Mason's run has been amazing, but Cinderella's carriage will turn into a pumpkin when the clock strikes 8:05. The Patriots will not have the luxury of playing at home this time around; they will be on a neutral court against a very balanced Florida squad, led by Joakim Noah, who looks unstoppable right now. Frankly, I won't be shocked if this is a blowout.

Prediction: Florida -6.
Correct 1-0

UCLA vs. LSU. Line: LSU by 2.
Final Four, 8:45

Looking at this line, you might think that LSU is the higher seed. However, that's not the case; UCLA is a No. 2, while LSU is No. 4. That should tell you something about the result of this game. The Bruins are a solid team but I don't think they stand a chance against the Tigers. With Big Baby Shaq and Tyrus Thomas, who looks like the next Alonzo Mourning, LSU is just too big and too powerful for the Bruins. Guard play usually wins in the NCAA Tournament, but this could be an exception. Glen Davis and Thomas are too dominant.

Prediction: LSU -2.
Incorrect 1-1

Elite Eight (March 25 & 26, 2006) (2-2)

Texas vs. LSU. Line: Texas by 3.
Atlanta Championship

You know things aren't going your way when two of the teams you pick to win come out victorious, but fail to cover miniscule point spreads. But what can you do?

Initially, I was shocked that LSU took out Duke. However, I forgot that J.J. Redick always chokes in big games. The Tigers matched up well against the Blue Devils, but that's not the case in this contest. The Longhorns have the big men to handle Baby Shaq and Tyrus Thomas, as well as the superior guards. I still think LSU is a sloppy team that managed to advance to the Elite Eight because it played inferior competition. If I'm wrong about the Tigers, I'll eat the crow.

Prediction: Texas -3.
Incorrect 0-1

Memphis vs. UCLA. Line: Memphis by 3.
Oakland Championship

Everyone is impressed by Memphis, but who have the Tigers played to get to the Elite Eight? Oral Roberts? Bucknell? Bradley? Wow, what a challenge that was. UCLA is much better than any of those three squads. Plus, it helps that the Bruins will be playing close to home.

Prediction: UCLA +3.
Correct 1-1

Connecticut vs. George Mason. Line: Connecticut by 8.
Washington Championship

My friend Suj said it best when we were talking about the Connecticut-Washington contest: "It looked like Connecticut was drunk out there." The victorious Huskies appeared lethargic and nonchalant for most of Friday's game. If they don't take George Mason seriously, it could cost them their tournament lives. The Patriots are a very talented team from a powerful CAA conference that is capable of taking out Connecticut. I don't think the Huskies have the will power to blow anyone out at this point. Take the eight points.

Prediction: George Mason +8.
Correct 2-1

Villanova vs. Florida. Line: Villanova by 2.
Minnesota Championship

Florida was able to handle Georgetown and Wisconsin-Milwaukee because it created a hectic tempo that its opponents could not handle. Villanova, on the other hand, will be able to run with the Gators. The Wildcats are more talented and experienced than Florida.

Prediction: Villanova -2.
Incorrect 2-2

Sweet 16 (March 23 & 24, 2006) (0-3)

Duke vs. LSU. Line: Duke by 6.
Atlanta 1-4 matchup

Not a good tournament for me thus far, but like I said in a late January slump, I hate giving up. Although Duke doesn't have the size LSU has, it has much better guard play and two clutch seniors who will get the job done. LSU is simply another mediocre SEC squad that should have been eliminated against Texas A&M. I'll take a top-notch ACC team over a squad from the SEC any day.

Prediction: Duke -6.
Incorrect 0-1

UCLA vs. Gonzaga. Line: UCLA by 3.
Oakland 2-3 matchup

Guard play wins in the NCAA Tournament, and UCLA has the superior guards in this matchup. What makes this such a tough battle for Gonzaga is the fact that Adam Morrison is still recovering from the flu. Unfortunately, the Zags forward has diabetes, so it's harder for him to recover from something than it is for a person without the disease. Morrison was off on Saturday, but Gonzaga was still able to vanquish a terrible Indiana team. It won't be so easy against UCLA. If Morrison is off, Gonzaga is out.

Prediction: UCLA -3.
Incorrect 0-2

Villanova vs. Boston College. Line: Villanova by 2½.
Minnesota 1-4 matchup

It seems like everyone is picking Boston College over Villanova. I don't get it. Have these people seen how Boston College barely survived against Pacific and Montana? Although those are two quality programs, Villanova is much better than those squads. The Wildcats have superior guards whose rebounding ability is underrated. The Eagles have the size, but they will not secure the victory.

Prediction: Villanova -2½.
Incorrect 0-3

NCAA Second Round (March 18 & 19, 2006) (2-7)

Duke vs. George Washington. Line: Duke by 8½.
Atlanta 1-8 matchup

When UNC-Wilmington was beating George Washington by double digits, I began worrying about the Seahawks' ability to shoot themselves into a victory over Duke (I have the Blue Devils going to the national championship in all of my brackets -- click on MARCH MADNESS in the menu for more details). However, the Colonials' comeback opens a nice play on Duke. The Blue Devils just match up too well against George Washington. UNC-Wilmington would have been a more dangerous opponent.

Prediction: Duke -8½.
Correct 1-0

Florida vs. Wisconsin-Milwaukee. Line: Florida by 7½.
Minnesota 3-11 matchup

Check out MARCH MADNESS in the menu to see why I think Wisconsin-Milwaukee will put its second upset of this tournament.

Prediction: Wisconsin-Milwaukee +7½.
Incorrect 1-1

Gonzaga vs. Indiana. Line: Gonzaga by 3.
Oakland 3-6 matchup

This is another second-round upset I'm calling for. You can get a more-detailed preview by clicking on MARCH MADNESS. But I'm sure all of you saw Gonzaga struggle with Xavier. Indiana is a much better squad than Xavier.

Prediction: Indiana +3.
Incorrect 1-2

UCLA vs. Alabama. Line: UCLA by 7½.
Oakland 2-10 matchup

Alabama really lucked out against Marquette, thanks to guard Jean Felix's performance. Felix, who averaged eight points and shot 29 percent from 3-point range during the regular season, scored 31 and nailed eight treys on Thursday. Like that's going to happen again. UCLA will win in a blowout.

Prediction: UCLA -7½.
Incorrect 1-3

Ohio State vs. Georgetown. Line: Ohio State by 3.
Minnesota 2-7 matchup

Both of these teams are talented, but Ohio State matches up well against Georgetown. The Hoyas have tons of size and use that to their advantage. But the Buckeyes have the big men that can take on Georgetown's front court, and the deadly 3-point shooters to give them a big advantage over the seven seed.

Prediction: Ohio State -3.
Incorrect 1-4

West Virginia vs. Northwestern State. Line: West Virginia by 6.
Atlanta 6-14 matchup

I picked Northwestern State to upset Iowa because the former was way too quick for the sluggish Hawkeyes. That's not the case in this round. West Virginia plays a similar style of basketball, and has better athletes and shooters, so don't expect the Demons to make a miraculous run into the Sweet 16.

Prediction: West Virginia -6.
Correct 2-4

Memphis vs. Bucknell. Line: Memphis by 8.
Oakland 1-9 matchup

Did you notice that Memphis struggled with Oral Roberts and even trailed late in the first half? That's because the Tigers are very inexperienced and cannot be trusted to advance far into the tournament. Oral Roberts couldn't complete the upset because it has an awful defense. Bucknell, on the other hand, has a stout defense. The Bison also have way more experience than Memphis. No. 1 goes down -- you heard it here first.

Prediction: Bucknell +8.
Incorrect 2-5

Pittsburgh vs. Bradley. Line: Pittsburgh by 5.
Oakland 5-13 matchup

I am among those who were shocked that Bradley defeated Kansas so easily. But the Braves' Cinderella run ends against Pittsburgh. The Panthers are an extremely balanced team with their multitude of talented guards and powerful big men Aaron Gray and Levon Kendall. Bradley will not be able to hang with one of the elite squads in college basketball.

Prediction: Pittsburgh -5.
Incorrect 2-6

Connecticut vs. Kentucky. Line: Connecticut by 9.
Washington 1-8 matchup

I wonder if Connecticut had coach Jim Calhoun is yelling at his players after that pitiful performance against Albany. I would definitely bet on it. I expect an inspired performance from the Huskies in this contest. They will wipe the floor with a mediocre Kentucky squad.

Prediction: Connecticut -9.
Incorrect 2-7

NCAA First Round (March 16 & 17, 2006) (4-7)

Connecticut vs. Albany. Line: Connecticut by 22½.
1-16 Featured Game of the Tournament

Note: My analysis for all of these games can be seen by clicking on March Madness, so you can get a more detailed preview by visiting that section of my site. This should be a blowout.

Prediction: Connecticut -22½.
Incorrect 0-1

Texas vs. Penn. Line: Texas by 14½.
2-15 Featured Game of the Tournament

Ivy League schools always play poorly in the NCAA Tournament.

Prediction: Texas -14½.
Incorrect 0-2

Iowa vs. Northwestern State. Line: Iowa by 7.
3-14 Featured Game of the Tournament

If you read my Atlanta Bracket, you know that I'm calling for an upset in this contest.

Prediction: Northwestern State +7.
Correct 1-2

LSU vs. Iona. Line: LSU by 7.
4-13 Featured Game of the Tournament

LSU will pull this one out, but it will go down to the wire.

Prediction: Iona +7.
Incorrect 1-3

Illinois vs. Air Force. Line: Illinois by 8½.
4-13 Bonus Game of the Tournament

As soon as all of the CBS and ESPN analysts said that Air Force doesn't belong in the NCAA Tournament, I penciled in Air Force +8½.

Prediction: Air Force +8½.
Incorrect 1-4

Washington vs. Utah State. Line: Washington by 6.
5-12 Featured Game of the Tournament

One of the 5-12 upsets I'm predicting this weekend.

Prediction: Utah State +6.
Incorrect 1-5

West Virginia vs. Southern Illinois. Line: West Virginia by 4.
6-11 Featured Game of the Tournament

This could be a blowout; West Virginia has too much firepower for Southern Illinois to handle.

Prediction: West Virginia -4.
Correct 2-5

Michigan State vs. George Mason. Line: Michigan State by 4.
6-11 Bonus Game of the Tournament

George Mason will be playing without its point guard because he threw a punch in the CAA semifinal.

Prediction: Michigan State -4.
Incorrect 2-6

Oklahoma vs. Wisconsin-Milwaukee. Line: Oklahoma by 2½.
6-11 Bonus Game of the Tournament

Oklahoma is struggling against everyone, even Kansas State and Texas Tech. No. 6 goes down.

Prediction: Wisconsin-Milwaukee +2½.
Correct 3-6

Marquette vs. Alabama. Line: Marquette by 1½.
7-10 Featured Game of the Tournament

Alabama doesn't have the personnel to stick with Marquette, one of the top shooting teams in the country.

Prediction: Marquette -1½.
Incorrect 3-7

Arkansas vs. Bucknell. Line: Arkansas by 4½.
8-9 Featured Game of the Tournament

Bucknell will not only win this game, it will also be victorious against Memphis in the second round.

Prediction: Bucknell +4½.
Correct 4-7

March 14, 2006 (0-1)

Rutgers (18-13) at Penn State (15-14). Line: Penn State by 1.
NIT Featured Game of the Day

The teams that usually win in the NIT are young and hungry squads that didn't have much of a shot at getting into the NCAA Tournament. Penn State has eight freshmen and four sophomores, who will be representing the university in its first postseason appearance since 2001. This means a lot to the Nittany Lions, who should be able to win this contest.

No Trends

Prediction: Penn State -1.
Incorrect 0-1

March 12, 2006 (2-2)

Boston College (26-6) vs. Duke (29-3). Line: Duke by 3½.
ACC Championship

For the first time in the ACC Tournament, Duke will be playing an opponent that does not need to win to get into the Big Dance. But that doesn't mean that the Blue Devils will be victorious. Boston College has plenty of big men that created problems for Duke when the two teams battled on Feb. 1. The Eagles were robbed in that contest and should have won. Boston College has more incentive to win this contest.

No Trends

Prediction: Boston College +3½.
Correct 1-0

South Carolina (18-14) vs. Florida (26-6). Line: Florida by 6.
SEC Championship

I'd like to apologize for taking Kentucky -3 over a desperate South Carolina team yesterday. The Gamecocks are the last team left that will be NIT-bound if it doesn't win its conference. Even if they don't win this contest, it will be close; South Carolina has everything in the world to live for, while the Florida players might as well go lay out in the sun and wait until 6 p.m. to find out where they are seeded.

Florida is 10-4 ATS in non-home games.

Prediction: South Carolina +6.
Correct 2-0

Kansas (24-7) vs. Texas (27-5). Line: Texas by 3.
Big XII Championship

The Jayhawks are one of the hottest teams in college basketball; they've won 14 of their previous 15 contests. The one loss? An 80-55 beatdown at Texas. Kansas was out-rebounded in that contest, 36-19. I don't think the young Jayhawks will be able to avenge that humiliating loss because Texas is just too big and too experienced. Plus, the Longhorns could claim a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament if they pull out a convincing victory. This game will be closer than the Feb. 25 meeting, but Texas should still be able to win by about 10.

Kansas is 10-5 ATS in non-home games.
Kansas is 12-6 ATS in Big XII play.

Prediction: Texas -3.
Incorrect 2-1

Iowa (22-11) vs. Ohio State (25-6). Line: Ohio State by 2½.
Big Ten Championship

The only incentive to win for either squad that I could find is a revenge situation for Ohio State. The Hawkeyes beat the Buckeyes on Jan. 28, 67-62. Keep in mind that Ohio State shot a season-worst 35.1 percent from the field in that contest, so head coach Thad Matta will have his team fired up for the rematch. Like Duke, Ohio State is playing a non-desperate opponent for the first time, so its margin of victory might be higher than it was against Penn State and Indiana.

No Trends

Prediction: Ohio State -2½.
Incorrect 2-2

March 11, 2006 (4-3-2)

Wake Forest (17-15) vs. Duke (28-3). Line: Duke by 12.
ACC Tournament Semifinal

Let me ask the question that every Wake Forest fan has on his or her mind right now: "Where was this all season?" The Demon Deacons won just three ACC games all year. Suddenly, they beat Florida State and N.C. State in back-to-back tournament contests. Guard Justin Gray and center Erik Williams are playing outstanding basketball right now. They will give sluggish Duke all it can handle. The Blue Devils didn't put forth maximum effort yesterday against Miami because they didn't have to. They own a No. 1 seed, while Wake Forest will be battling for its life. This could be a huge upset.

No Trends

Other ACC Tournament Predictions (wins/losses will not count against my record):
North Carolina -4½ over Boston College

Prediction: Wake Forest +12.
Push

Syracuse (22-11) vs. Pittsburgh (25-6). Line: Pittsburgh by 5½.
Big East Championship

I'd like to preface this pick by stating that Pittsburgh has what it takes to win the National Championship. The Panthers have outstanding guard play and the respectable big men to go the distance. But, I will not be betting on them today. Syracuse is playing out of its mind right now. Prior to the Big East Tournament, the Orange Men were NIT-bound, while Gerry McNamara was an overrated player in the eyes of many analysts. But like Tom Brady and other clutch athletes, McNamara comes up big when it counts most. You can tell that Syracuse really wants this Big East Championship. Whether they get it or not, I'll take 5½ points with a very hungry Orange Men squad.

Pittsburgh is 9-4 ATS in non-home games.

Prediction: Syracuse +5½.
Correct 1-0

Indiana (18-10) vs. Ohio State (24-4). Line: Ohio State by 5.
Big Ten Tournament Semifinal

It's not going to happen, but what if Mike Davis and the Hoosiers win the NCAA Tournament? Is he still going to leave the team? Whatever happens, give Indiana credit for winning five consecutive contests after looking like it was given up for dead. Beating Ohio State will guarantee the Hoosiers a spot in the NCAA Tournament. That's a realistic possibility; the Buckeyes were sluggish against Penn State because they had nothing to play for. That applies to this contest as well.

Indiana is 5-12 ATS in Big Ten play.

Other Big Ten Tournament Predictions (wins/losses will not count against my record):
Michigan State -1½ over Iowa

Prediction: Indiana +5.
Correct 2-0

South Carolina (17-14) vs. Kentucky (21-11). Line: Kentucky by 3.
SEC Tournament Semifinal

I'll keep betting on Kentucky, whose conference-tournament record the past few years speaks for itself (see below). By beating Tennessee, South Carolina has probably done enough to get into the Big Dance. That's a good thing for the Gamecocks because the Wildcats are a force to be reckoned with when it comes to SEC Tournaments.

Kentucky is 12-2 SU, 10-3 ATS in SEC Tournament games since 2001.
Kentucky is 12-4 ATS in non-home games.

Other SEC Tournament Predictions (wins/losses will not count against my record):
LSU +2 over Florida

Prediction: Kentucky -3.
Incorrect 2-1

Texas A&M (21-7) vs. Texas (26-5). Line: Texas by 8.
Big XII Tournament Semifinal

I couldn't believe my ears when I heard several ESPN analysts opine that Texas A&M has no business in the NCAA Tournament. What more do the Aggies have to do? They have an impressive 21-7 record, they were fourth in their conference, and they beat Texas once and Colorado twice. Expect an inspired performance from an angry Texas A&M squad that continues to battle and win despite all of its detractors. The Longhorns are too inconsistent and unreliable to give eight points with.

Texas A&M is 7-3 ATS in Big XII play.

Other Big XII Tournament Predictions (wins/losses will not count against my record):
Nebraska +10 over Kansas

Prediction: Texas A&M +8.
Correct 3-1

California (20-9) vs. UCLA (26-6). Line: UCLA by 6½.
PAC 10 Championship

The PAC 10 can be described as one of the weaker major conferences, but that doesn't mean a team can emerge from it and advance to the Elite Eight. UCLA has the guard play to travel far into the tournament. Plus, it has been able to win on the road this year; the Bruins possess an impressive 11-3 record in non-home games. They have been whacking teams left and right, beating all of their opponents by nine or more since Feb. 19. California has had a solid season, but I don't think the team can compete with UCLA after winning in overtime against Oregon the previous night.

UCLA is 10-4 ATS in non-home games.
UCLA is 14-6 ATS in PAC 10 play.

Prediction: UCLA -6½.
Correct 4-1

UAB (24-5) vs. Memphis (29-3). Line: Memphis by 9.
Conference USA Championship

Everyone knows that Memphis will qualify for the NCAA Tournament, whether it wins or loses. That can't be said for UAB; the Blazers will probably receive a bid from the Selection Committee, but nothing is guaranteed. This contest obviously means more to UAB, a team that beat Memphis by 6 about a week ago.

Memphis is 5-11 ATS in Conference USA play.

Prediction: UAB +9.
Incorrect 4-2

Utah State (23-7) vs. Nevada (26-5). Line: Nevada by 7.
WAC Championship

Nevada isn't playing hard in the Big West Tournament, and I can't really blame them. The Wolf Pack already have an NCAA bid lined up, so they can afford to beat 4-25 Idaho by 13, and 16-14 New Mexico State by only 11. Utah State is much more talented than those two squads, so this could be an upset. The Aggies will not receive an at-large bid if they lose this game, so their season is on the line. Bubble teams everywhere will be praying for the Wolf Pack to win. Whether they do or not, this contest will be tight.

No Trends

Prediction: Utah State +7.
Push

Wyoming (14-17) vs. San Diego State (23-8). Line: San Diego State by 7.
Mountain West Championship

Unlike Nevada, San Diego State will not receive an at-large bid if it loses in its conference championship. I took the Aztecs yesterday and they failed to cover by just three points. However, they had a terrible shooting performance, as they were just 37 percent from the field and 21.1 percent from beyond the arc, both of which were season lows since January. Meanwhile, Wyoming has had two impressive wins against Air Force and Utah, but the Cowboys will not win the Mountain West. They shot 53.4 percent against San Diego State on March 1 and still lost by 19.

San Diego State is 12-5 ATS in Mountain West play.

Prediction: San Diego State -7.
Incorrect 4-3

March 10, 2006 (6-5)

Penn State (15-13) vs. Ohio State (23-4). Line: Ohio State by 12.
Big Ten Tournament Featured Game of the Day

This is the second round of the Big Ten Tournament. I took Penn State over Northwestern yesterday because I noted that the team's roster, which is comprised of eight freshmen, four sophomores and only one senior, is 5-4 since the start of February and has made great strides this season. It's always tough to beat a squad three times in a single season, and that's exactly what Ohio State will be asked to do. Keep in mind that the Buckeyes have a No. 1 or 2 seed locked up, while Penn State will be fighting for its life. I think the Buckeyes will win this game, but the Nittany Lions should be able to cover.

Ohio State is 6-3 ATS in non-home games.
Ohio State is 11-5 ATS in Big Ten play.

Other Big Ten Tournament Predictions (wins/losses will not count against my record):
Indiana +1 over Wisconsin (Correct)
Minnesota +6 over Iowa (Incorrect)
Illinois -4½ over Michigan State (Incorrect)

Prediction: Penn State +12.
Correct 1-0

Miami (16-14) vs. Duke (27-3). Line: Duke by 12½.
ACC Tournament Featured Game of the Day

This is the second round of the ACC Tournament. Miami really surprised me when it came from behind and beat Clemson yesterday. But looking at the Hurricanes' resume, they are 8-9 in the ACC and have wins at North Carolina, Florida State and Georgia Tech. A victory over Duke could propel them into the Big Dance. Thus, Miami has everything to play for, while Duke has a No. 1 seed no matter what happens. The Hurricanes have only lost one contest by more than 12 points since Jan. 24, so this should be a close game.

No Trends

Other ACC Tournament Predictions (wins/losses will not count against my record):
Wake Forest +5 over N.C. State (Correct)
North Carolina -12½ over Virginia (Incorrect)
Maryland +3 over Boston College (Incorrect)

Prediction: Miami +12½.
Correct 2-0

Colorado (20-8) vs. Texas A&M (20-7). Line: Texas A&M by 1½.
Big XII Tournament Featured Game of the Day

This is the second round of the Big XII Tournament. It might be obvious to say that this contest is huge for Texas A&M, but in a historical perspective, it really is. That's because the Aggies have never won a Big XII Tournament game. Never. This is their greatest chance; Colorado struggled against four-win Baylor yesterday. Besides, Texas A&M can lock up an at-large bid with a victory.

Texas A&M is 6-3 ATS in non-home games.

Other Big XII Tournament Predictions (wins/losses will not count against my record):
Texas -14 over Texas Tech (Incorrect)
Oklahoma State +8 over Kansas (Correct)
Nebraska +7½ over Oklahoma (Correct)

Prediction: Texas A&M -1½.
Correct 3-0

Kentucky (20-11) vs. Alabama (17-11). Line: Kentucky by 3½.
SEC Tournament Featured Game of the Day

This is the second round of the SEC Tournament. Kentucky usually dominates its conference tournament, as you can tell by the numbers I've listed below. This contest shouldn't be any different, as the Wildcats will look to dismantle a short-handed Alabama squad. The Crimson Tide have somehow built a respectable tournament resume despite the absence of their best player, Chuck Davis, who suffered a torn ACL in early January. But looking at Alabama's results, all its big wins came at home. The one exception was a 68-64 victory at Kentucky. The Crimson Tide shot a season-third-best 53.5 percent from the field that afternoon. Furthermore, Kentucky center Randolph Morris was playing in his second game of the season. The Wildcats will flip the script this time around.

Kentucky is 11-2 SU, 9-3 ATS in SEC Tournament games since 2001.
Kentucky is 11-4 ATS in non-home games.

Other SEC Tournament Predictions (wins/losses will not count against my record):
South Carolina +5½ over Tennessee (Correct)
LSU -2½ over Vanderbilt (Correct)
Arkansas +2 over Florida (Incorrect)

Prediction: Kentucky -3½.
Correct 4-0

Pittsburgh (24-6) vs. Villanova (25-3). Line: Villanova by 5.
Big East Tournament Featured Game of the Day

This is the semi-final of the Big East Tournament. It's odd to find two conference opponents who have yet to play each other this season, but that's the case in this matchup. Advantage? Villanova, by a long shot. The Wildcats play a very unique four-guard system, which is difficult to prepare for if you've never played against it. Just look at the first Villanova-Connecticut matchup. Villanova should win this contest by double digits.

Pittsburgh is 8-4 ATS in non-home games.

Other Big East Tournament Predictions (wins/losses will not count against my record):
Syracuse +3½ over Georgetown (Correct)

Prediction: Villanova -5.
Incorrect 4-1

Arizona (19-11) vs. UCLA (25-6). Line: UCLA by 5½.
PAC 10 Tournament Featured Game of the Day

This is the semi-final of the PAC 10 Tournament. I'll be shocked if this game is not a blowout. Arizona somehow won yesterday without its leading scorer, Hassan Adams, who was suspended for the conference tournament. The Wildcats will not have enough firepower for UCLA, the clear-cut elite team in the PAC 10. Keep in mind that the Bruins beat Arizona a month ago, 84-73, even though the latter shot 58 percent from the field. The Wildcats won't be anywhere near that mark without Adams.

UCLA is 9-4 ATS in non-home games.
UCLA is 13-6 ATS in PAC 10 play.

Other PAC 10 Tournament Predictions (wins/losses will not count against my record):
Oregon +3 over California (Incorrect)

Prediction: UCLA -5½.
Correct 5-1

Ohio (19-10) vs. Kent State (23-8). Line: Kent State by 3.
MAC Tournament Featured Game of the Day

This is the semi-final of the MAC Tournament. I mentioned above that it is really difficult to beat a good team three times in one season. Kent State swept Ohio this year, shooting better than 50 percent in both contests. Based on the way the Golden Flashes struggled against Buffalo, and the way the Bobcats dominated Miami of Ohio yesterday -- Miami is a much better team than Buffalo -- things might be different in the third battle between these two MAC juggernauts. Ohio was the preseason favorite to win the MAC, so this tournament is its final chance to live up to expectations.

Kent State is 15-4 ATS in MAC play.

Other MAC Tournament Predictions (wins/losses will not count against my record):
Akron -4 over Toledo (Incorrect)

Prediction: Ohio +3.
Incorrect 5-2

Houston (20-8) vs. Memphis (28-3). Line: Memphis by 12.
Conference USA Tournament Featured Game of the Day

This is the semi-final of the Conference USA Tournament. I don't think the very young Tigers will be focused for this matchup. Memphis has qualified for the NCAA Tournament no matter what happens, so there is no incentive to win. Also, Houston's only chance of evading the NIT is by beating Memphis and then the winner of the UAB-UTEP matchup. The Cougars played Memphis a week ago and only lost by seven, despite shooting just 32.8 percent from the field. This could be an upset.

Houston is 10-5 ATS in Conference USA play.
Memphis is 4-11 ATS in Conference USA play.

Other Conference USA Tournament Predictions (wins/losses will not count against my record):
UTEP +4½ over UAB (Correct)

Prediction: Houston +12.
Incorrect 5-3

New Mexico State (16-13) vs. Nevada (25-5). Line: Nevada by 13.
WAC Tournament Featured Game of the Day

This is the semi-final of the WAC Tournament. The Nevada-New Mexico State matchup is eerily similar to the aforementioned Houston-Memphis battle. Nevada doesn't really have anything to play for, while New Mexico State's season is on the line. The Wolf Pack only beat a 4-25 Idaho squad by 13 yesterday, so it's OK to question the effort that they will be putting forth in this contest.

New Mexico State is 11-4 ATS in non-home games.
New Mexico State is 12-4 ATS in WAC play.

Other WAC Tournament Predictions (wins/losses will not count against my record):
Louisiana Tech +2 over Utah State (Incorrect)

Prediction: New Mexico State +13.
Correct 6-3

UNLV (17-12) vs. San Diego State (22-8). Line: San Diego State by 5.
Mountain West Tournament Featured Game of the Day

This is the semi-final of the Mountain West Tournament. As I discussed yesterday, the Mountain West is a one-bid league, no matter who wins the tournament, so San Diego State has to stay focused against each opponent it battles. UNLV will not offer much of a challenge.

San Diego State is 12-4 ATS in Mountain West play.

Other Mountain West Tournament Predictions (wins/losses will not count against my record):
Utah -2½ over Wyoming (Incorrect)

Prediction: San Diego State -5.
Incorrect 6-4

Cal Poly-SLO (10-18) vs. Pacific (22-7). Line: Pacific by 13.
Big West Tournament Featured Game of the Day

This is the semi-final of the Big West Tournament. Like the Mountain West, the Big West is a one-bid league. And like San Diego State, Pacific cannot afford to fool around and let the Selection Committee decide its fate. The Tigers recently beat this Cal Poly-SLO squad by 22, so expect similar things to happen in the semi-final round.

Cal Poly-SLO is 11-3 ATS in non-home games.
Cal Poly-SLO is 11-4 ATS in Big West play.
Pacific is 9-4 ATS in Big West play.

Other Big West Tournament Predictions (wins/losses will not count against my record):
UC-Irvine -2 over Long Beach State (Incorrect)

Prediction: Pacific -13.
Incorrect 6-5

March 9, 2006 (6-3)

Northwestern (14-14) vs. Penn State (14-13). Line: Northwestern by 1½.
Big Ten Tournament Featured Game of the Day

This is the first round of the Big Ten Tournament. Penn State's roster, which is comprised of eight freshmen, four sophomores and only one senior, has made tremendous strides this season. In November, the Nittany Lions were struggling against the likes of Cornell and UMKC. By February, they went into Illinois and won. They also had road victories at Purdue and Northwestern. The Wildcats are only 4-6 since the start of February, whereas Penn State is 4-4 during that stretch. I'm going to take the better, younger and hungrier team as an underdog.

No Trends

Other Big East Tournament Predictions (wins/losses will not count against my record):
Michigan -3½ over Minnesota
Michigan State -12½ over Purdue

Prediction: Penn State +1½.
Correct 1-0

Wake Forest (15-15) vs. Florida State (19-8). Line: Florida State by 4½.
ACC Tournament Featured Game of the Day

This is the first round of the ACC Tournament. Right now, Florida State will qualify for a bid on Selection Sunday. However, the team cannot afford a loss to a terrible squad like Wake Forest. The Seminoles are on fire, possessing a 7-3 record since the beginning of February. They even beat Duke last week and followed that up with a victory at Miami. Meanwhile, Wake Forest hasn't won a game away from home since December.

Wake Forest is 9-18 ATS.

Other ACC Tournament Predictions (wins/losses will not count against my record):
Clemson -1 over Miami
Virginia +3 over Virginia Tech
Georgia Tech +2½ over Maryland

Prediction: Florida State -4½.
Incorrect 1-1

Baylor (4-12) vs. Colorado (19-8). Line: Colorado by 9.
Big XII Tournament Featured Game of the Day

This is the first round of the Big XII Tournament. Baylor's record might make you think the team is pathetic. However, the Bears recently have beaten Texas Tech and Iowa State by double figures, and kept things close against Texas A&M, at Oklahoma State and at Kansas. Colorado, who will be out of its thin-air environment, might be in for a surprise. The Buffaloes have secured just two Big XII victories outside of Boulder, both of which took place in mid-January.

No Trends

Other Big XII Tournament Predictions (wins/losses will not count against my record):
Kansas State -2½ over Texas Tech
Iowa State +1 over Oklahoma State
Nebraska -3½ over Missouri

Prediction: Baylor +9.
Correct 2-1

Ole Miss (14-15) vs. Kentucky (19-11). Line: Kentucky by 10.
SEC Tournament Featured Game of the Day

This is the first round of the SEC Tournament. In years past, Kentucky always did well in the conference tournament, even though it didn't need the wins to get an NCAA bid. Now the Wildcats need to beat Ole Miss to ensure themselves a spot in the Big Dance. The Selection Committee will undoubtedly frown upon a loss to a Rebels squad that has only won once since Jan. 14. One of their defeats during that stretch was an 80-40 loss against Kentucky. That's not a misprint.

Ole Miss is 2-8 ATS in non-home games.
Kentucky is 10-4 ATS in non-home games.

Other SEC Tournament Predictions (wins/losses will not count against my record):
Mississippi State +5½ over South Carolina
Auburn +9½ over Vanderbilt
Georgia +9 over Arkansas

Prediction: Kentucky -10.
Correct 3-1

Syracuse (20-11) vs. Connecticut (27-2). Line: Connecticut by 12.
Big East Tournament Featured Game of the Day

This is the second round of the Big East Tournament. We have finally reached Syracuse's last stand. The Orange Men need a victory to get into the Big Dance, but they've needed those wins late in the season when they lost by 10 against Villanova, 39 at DePaul and 15 at Georgetown. They managed to get to the second round of the Big East Tournament after lucking out against a very mediocre Cincinnati squad.

Syracuse is 5-11 ATS in Big East play.
Connecticut is 9-4 ATS in non-home games.

Other Big East Tournament Predictions (wins/losses will not count against my record):
Marquette +2½ over Georgetown
Rutgers +10 over Villanova
West Virginia +1 over Pittsburgh

Prediction: Connecticut -12.
Incorrect 3-2

Stanford (15-12) vs. Arizona (18-11). Line: Arizona by 2½.
PAC 10 Tournament Featured Game of the Day

This is the second round of the PAC 10 Tournament. In case you aren't aware, Arizona guard Hassan Adams, the team's leading scorer, has been suspended for the conference tournament and perhaps the Big Dance. The Wildcats don't even need to win this game because they've basically clinched an at-large bid. That's not the case for Stanford. A desperate Cardinal squad will beat short-handed Arizona.

Arizona is 6-12 ATS in PAC 10 play.

Other PAC 10 Tournament Predictions (wins/losses will not count against my record):
USC +4 over California
Oregon State +16 over UCLA
Oregon +7½ over Washington

Prediction: Stanford +2½.
Incorrect 3-3

Buffalo (19-12) vs. Kent State (22-8). Line: Kent State by 6½.
MAC Tournament Featured Game of the Day

This is the second round of the MAC Tournament. Unlike some other mid-major conferences, the MAC is a one-bid league, meaning Kent State will have to win its tournament to receive entry into the Big Dance. While doing so will prove to be a challenge, the same cannot be said about getting past Buffalo. The Bulls have defeated just one winning team (Akron) since Jan. 26. One of the many losses they suffered recently was a 4-point letdown against Kent State, even though they shot 52.1 percent from the field. That's not going to happen again. By the way, the Golden Flashes are 9-2 since the 26th.

Kent State is 14-4 ATS in MAC play.

Other MAC Tournament Predictions (wins/losses will not count against my record):
Toledo -1 over Northern Illinois
Akron -10½ over Western Michigan
Ohio +2 over Miami of Ohio

Prediction: Kent State -6½.
Correct 4-3

New Mexico State (15-13) vs. Hawaii (17-10). Line: Hawaii by 1.
WAC Tournament Featured Game of the Day

This is the first round of the WAC Tournament. Most of you know that I love betting against Hawaii when it plays on the mainland. That will continue to be the case in this contest. New Mexico State lost its previous game at Hawaii by 5 points. I don't think the Warriors will play as well at Reno, the site of the WAC Tournament.

New Mexico State is 10-4 ATS in non-home games.
New Mexico State is 11-4 ATS in WAC play.
Hawaii is 2-10 ATS in non-home games.

Other WAC Tournament Predictions (wins/losses will not count against my record):
Louisiana Tech -6 over Boise State
Utah State -11½ over San Jose State
Idaho +23 over Nevada

Prediction: New Mexico State +1.
Correct 5-3

Colorado State (16-14) vs. San Diego State (21-8). Line: San Diego State by 5½.
Mountain West Tournament Featured Game of the Day

This is the second round of the Mountain West Tournament. San Diego State has had an impressive season, but the Aztecs need to reach the Mountain West Championship to feel secure about their chances of an at-large bid. Colorado State will not offer much resistance; the team has a 5-12 conference record and barely beat 6-25 TCU in the first round. Meanwhile, San Diego State is 15-3 since Dec. 27.

Colorado State is 3-14 ATS in Mountain West play.
San Diego State is 11-4 ATS in Mountain West play.

Other Mountain West Tournament Predictions (wins/losses will not count against my record):
New Mexico +2 over UNLV
Air Force -8½ over Wyoming
BYU -3 over Utah

Prediction: San Diego State -5½.
Correct 6-3

March 8, 2006 (0-0-1)

Louisville (18-11) vs. Pittsburgh (22-6). Line: Pittsburgh by 5.
Big East Tournament Featured Game of the Day

This is the first round of the Big East Tournament. Louisville is desperate. The team needs at least two victories in the conference tournament to ensure themselves a spot in the Big Dance. Looking at Louisville's recent results, you can tell they are trying hard to win. The Cardinals were able to beat Marquette at home and lost by only four points at Connecticut and West Virginia. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh might as well head down to Florida for Spring Break; the Panthers have already cemented their place in the NCAA Tournament.

No Trends

Other Big East Tournament Predictions (wins/losses will not count against my record):
Cincinnati -3 over Syracuse (Incorrect)
Notre Dame +3 over Georgetown (Incorrect)
Seton Hall -2½ over Rutgers (Incorrect)

Prediction: Louisville +5.
Push

March 7, 2006 (2-0)

Penn (20-7) at Princeton (11-15). Line: Penn by 4½.
Ivy League Featured Game of the Day

This game means nothing to Penn. The Quakers have already clinched the Ivy League title because there is no conference tournament. This is Princeton's final contest of the season, so it will want to finish its disappointing campaign on a high note by avenging a 19-point loss it suffered to Penn on Valentine's Day. The Tigers only shot 31.4 percent from the field that evening, which was their worst figure since the middle of January.

No Trends

Prediction: Princeton +4½.
Correct 1-0

Sacramento State (15-14) at Northern Arizona (20-9). Line: N. Arz by 7.
Big Sky Tournament Featured Game of the Day

This is the semi-final of the Big Sky Tournament. Northern Arizona has a tremendous advantage in this contest because the conference tournament is being held in its home, Flagstaff. The Lumberjacks were 12-1 at home this season and beat up on opponents by an average of 16.8 points. Getting by Sacramento State should be a breeze; the Hornets have only won once since Feb. 4, which was a month later in the first round of the Big Sky Tournament. Sacramento State simply lucked out because it got to beat up on an equally pathetic Montana State squad.

No Trends

Other Big Sky Tournament Predictions (wins/losses will not count against my record):
Eastern Washington +6 over Montana (Correct)

Prediction: Northern Arizona -7.
Correct 2-0

March 6, 2006 (3-0)

Bowling Green (9-20) at Toledo (17-10). Line: Toledo by 14.
MAC Tournament Featured Game of the Day

This is the first round of the MAC Tournament. There are three teams in the conference who have an outstanding home-court advantage: Akron, Ohio and Toledo. The Rockets are 13-2 as a host and have beaten their opponents by an average of 12.5 points. In fact, they have recent home victories of 23, 27, 16, 16 and 30 points. They should be able to make quick work of a Bowling Green squad that has not won a game since Feb. 7. Since that date, the Falcons have lost six of seven contests by double digits.

No Trends

Other MAC Tournament Predictions (wins/losses will not count against my record):
Buffalo -8 over Ball State (Push)
Eastern Michigan +7½ over Western Michigan (Correct)
Ohio -17 over Central Michigan (Correct)

Prediction: Toledo -14.
Correct 1-0

Hofstra (24-5) vs. UNC-Wilmington (24-7). Line: UNC-Wilmington by 3½.
CAA Tournament Featured Game of the Day

This is the CAA Championship. Hofstra needed a victory over George Mason yesterday to clinch an at-large bid. If the Pride lose tonight, they will still be able to participate in the NCAA Tournament. That does not apply to UNC-Wilmington, even though I think they deserve a bid over the likes of Syracuse, Colorado and Utah State. The Seahawks simply need this contest more than Hofstra, a team that has only lost once since Jan. 21. They were defeated by UNC-Wilmington by 9.

UNC-Wilmington is 13-5 ATS in non-home games.

Prediction: UNC-Wilmington -3½.
Correct 2-0

LMU (12-17) vs. Gonzaga (26-3). Line: Gonzaga by 12.
WCC Tournament Featured Game of the Day

This is the WCC Championship. I went against Gonzaga and won yesterday. My reasoning? The Zags don't care about winning their conference tournament -- they obviously have an NCAA Tournament bid lined up for them already. At 12-17, LMU needs to win the WCC Tournament to get into the Big Dance. The Lions gave Gonzaga a bit of trouble the two times they clashed, losing by only 9 and 12 points.

LMU is 10-5 ATS in WCC play.
Gonzaga is 9-4 ATS in non-home games.

Prediction: LMU +12.
Correct 3-0

March 5, 2006 (3-4)

Florida (23-6) at Kentucky (19-10). Line: Kentucky by 3½.
SEC Featured Game of the Day

I previewed the Florida-Kentucky contest when the two teams battled on Feb. 4. I stated that Kentucky always dominated the Gators until late last season. Florida finally got over the hump and beat the Wildcats in the SEC Championship, and then parlayed that victory by beating Kentucky again, 95-80 a month ago. The Gators are the better team; they have superior athleticism and scoring ability.

Kentucky is 2-9 ATS at home.

Prediction: Florida +3½.
Correct 1-0

Maryland (17-11) at Virginia (14-12). Line: Virginia by 2.
ACC Featured Game of the Day

On Jan. 25, I picked against Maryland because guard Chris McCray was suspended for the season for academic violations. I was wrong, as the Terrapins beat up on Georgia Tech, 86-74. However, since then, Maryland is just 3-7, losing to the likes of Temple, Clemson and Florida State. The Terps are also 0-5 on the road during that stretch. Virginia needs a victory to claim an 8-8 conference record. The team will also be looking for revenge; the Cavaliers were beaten by Maryland on Feb. 7, 76-65.

Maryland is 7-14 ATS.
Maryland is 2-6 ATS on the road.
Maryland is 4-11 ATS in ACC play.
Virginia is 7-3 ATS at home.

Prediction: Virginia -2.
Incorrect 1-1

Fordham (13-15) at Temple (15-12). Line: Temple by 10½.
Atlantic 10 Featured Game of the Day

I don't know how they did it, but the Owls have developed a dominant home-court advantage. They are 11-3 as a host and have beaten their opponents by an average of 11.4 points. Keep in mind that that figure includes a recent 8-point loss at Duke and a tough 6-point victory against Maryland. Temple should win this contest by double digits; keep in mind that Fordham recently lost at Xavier by 20.

Temple is 12-2 ATS at home.

Prediction: Temple -10½.
Incorrect 1-2

Hofstra (23-5) vs. George Mason (23-6). Line: George Mason by 3½.
CAA Tournament Featured Game of the Day

This is the semi-final of the CAA Tournament. Even though Hofstra has a better record than George Mason, it has yet to secure an at-large bid. The Patriots, meanwhile, were ranked a few weeks ago and will qualify for the Big Dance even if they lose to the Pride. Hofstra will win this contest because it means more to them.

George Mason is 16-8 ATS.
George Mason is 12-6 ATS in CAA play.

Other CAA Tournament Predictions (wins/losses will not count against my record):
UNC-Wilmington -5 over Northeastern (Correct)

Prediction: Hofstra +3½.
Correct 2-2

San Diego (18-11) vs. Gonzaga (25-3). Line: Gonzaga by 13.
WCC Tournament Featured Game of the Day

This is the semi-final of the WCC Tournament. I wonder if Gonzaga even practiced for this game. The Bulldogs obviously do not need to win their conference tournament because they will qualify for the NCAAs as an at-large. On the other hand, San Diego's season is on the line.

Gonzaga is 9-4 ATS in non-home games.

Other WCC Tournament Predictions (wins/losses will not count against my record):
Saint Mary's -4 over LMU

Prediction: San Diego +13.
Correct 3-2

UT-Chattanooga (19-12) vs. Davidson (19-10). Line: Davidson by 7.
SoCon Tournament Featured Game of the Day

This is the SoCon championship; the winner will move on to play in March Madness. Davidson made it here, but it hasn't been an easy ride for them. The Wildcats struggled against The Citadel and Elon, just one year after they were upset by UNC-Greensboro. UT-Chattanooga will either win this contest or keep it close.

Davidson is 3-10 ATS in non-home games.

Prediction: UT-Chattanooga +7.
Incorrect 3-3

Marist (19-9) vs. Iona (21-7). Line: Iona by 3.
MAAC Tournament Featured Game of the Day

This is the semi-final of the MAAC Tournament. I'm going to give you one reason why Marist is going to win this game -- they're the better team. The Red Foxes, who are 14-3 since Jan. 10, demolished the Gaels at Iona about a month ago. Meanwhile, Iona has been sloppy recently after a hot start.

No Trends

Other MAAC Tournament Predictions (wins/losses will not count against my record):
Manhattan -2½ over Saint Peter's (Incorrect)

Prediction: Marist +3.
Incorrect 3-4

March 4, 2006 (7-4)

North Carolina (20-6) at Duke (27-2). Line: Duke by 6½.
ACC Featured Game of the Day

No one is playing as well as North Carolina right now. The Tar Heels, despite their youth, are demolishing everyone in their path. They have recently blown out Virginia, Maryland and N.C. State (on the road). In fact, their only loss since Jan. 25 was a four-point letdown against Duke. However, things might be different this time. The young Tar Heels have grown throughout this season and are ready to establish themselves as a top-five team in college hoops. They can do that by going into Duke and winning. As I've stated many times, I'm not a believer in the Blue Devils. Freshman point guard Greg Paulus does not have what it takes to win a national championship. Duke also lacks size beyond Shelden Williams. I'm calling for an upset. North Carolina by five.

North Carolina is 17-7 ATS.
North Carolina is 7-2 ATS on the road.
North Carolina is 11-4 ATS in ACC play.

Prediction: North Carolina +6½.
Correct 1-0

Indiana (16-10) at Michigan (18-8). Line: Michigan by 5½.
Big Ten Featured Game of the Day

The winner of this contest will probably be awarded with an at-large bid. Michigan has a huge edge because it is playing at home and has revenge on its side. The Wolverines have only lost once as a host in conference play, while Indiana has just one victory on the road in the Big Ten (at Purdue). I figure that if Michigan can beat Illinois by 8, it can cover the 5½-point spread against reeling Indiana.

Indiana is 7-16 ATS.
Indiana is 3-7 ATS on the road.
Indiana is 3-12 ATS in Big Ten play.

Prediction: Michigan -5½.
Incorrect 1-1

Wisconsin (19-9) at Iowa (21-8). Line: Iowa by 6.
Big Ten Bonus Game of the Day

I have an additional Big Ten game because this one seems as easy to call as the other. The bottom line is: Wisconsin stinks on the road, while Iowa is undefeated at home. In fact, the Hawkeyes have beaten opponents as a host by an average of 17.6 points per game.

Wisconsin is 2-7 ATS on the road.

Prediction: Iowa -6.
Correct 2-1

Kansas (21-7) at Kansas State (15-11). Line: Kansas by 5.
Big XII Featured Game of the Day

When the Jayhawks and Wildcats battle, I always take Kansas State if the game is at Kansas. If the contest is in Manhattan, I take the visitng Jayhawks. It always works. Kansas owes Kansas State a bit of revenge after losing to them on Jan. 14.

Kansas is 5-2 ATS on the road.
Kansas is 10-5 ATS in Big XII play.

Prediction: Kansas -5.
Correct 3-1

South Carolina (14-14) at Auburn (12-14). Line: South Carolina by 2.
SEC Featured Game of the Day

Winning on the road in the SEC is a tall task for most teams, and South Carolina will find that out on Saturday afternoon. The Gamecocks, who have their previous four games -- three of them were at home -- have only won twice in conference road contests. Meanwhile, Auburn has been able to handle the competition as host, just as long as the opponent isn't among the elite of the SEC. I wouldn't say South Carolina is an elite squad.

No Trends

Prediction: Auburn +2.
Incorrect 3-2

Washington (23-5) at Arizona (18-10). Line: Arizona by 1½.
PAC 10 Featured Game of the Day

I hope Arizona qualifies for the NCAA Tournament just so I can pick against them in the first round and produce an instant winner. The Wildcats have a respectable record, but since the beginning of January, they have lost to every formidable team they've played. Just check out some recent results: a 9-point loss to California; an 11-point defeat at UCLA; a 7-point loss to USC; and a 17-point beatdown to North Carolina. Arizona also suffered consecutive losses at Oregon and Oregon State. Meanwhile, Washington has won seven in a row and looks ready to avenge its New Years Eve loss to the Wildcats.

Arizona is 4-9 ATS at home.
Arizona is 6-11 ATS in PAC 10 play.

Prediction: Washington +1½.
Correct 4-2

Charlotte (18-10) at George Washington (25-1). Line: GW by 9.
Atlantic 10 Featured Game of the Day

I think we would all agree that Charlotte's chances of capturing an at-large bid would be magnified if it could knock off George Washington. That is possible; the Colonials are without one of their best players, forward Pops Mensah-Bonsu, who recently injured his knee. When these two teams met on Jan. 21, the 49ers lost by 14 because they shot just 36.1 percent from the field. They are almost guaranteed a better shooting performance this time around. Charlotte needs this contest much more than George Washington does.

Charlotte is 10-2 ATS on the road.
George Washington is 5-2 ATS at home.

Prediction: Charlotte +9.
Correct 5-2

Kent State (22-7) at Akron (20-8). Line: Akron by 3.
MAC Featured Game of the Day

If you've been visiting this Web site, you know that I always take Akron at home. The Zips never lose as a host. They are 12-0 straight up (10-1 against the spread), and have demolished their foes by an average of 20.3 points per game. This is also a revenge situation for Akron; it lost at Kent State by six.

Kent State is 16-8 ATS.
Kent State is 14-3 ATS in MAC play.
Akron is 10-1 ATS at home.

Prediction: Akron -3.
Correct 6-2

Georgia State (7-21) vs. George Mason (22-6). Line: George Mason by 16½.
CAA Tournament Featured Game of the Day

This is the second round of the CAA Tournament, as No. 10 Georgia State battles No. 2 George Mason. As you can tell by the records and the seeds of these two squads, this contest is going to be ugly. George Mason probably has an at-large bid locked up, but that will not be the case if it falls to a pathetic team like Georgia State. The Panthers got lucky with a first-round win against an equally horrendous Towson State squad. They won't be so fortunate this time around. The Patriots could probably sleep walk through this game and still cover.

George Mason is 9-4 ATS in non-home games.
George Mason is 12-5 ATS in CAA play.

Other MVC Tournament Predictions (wins/losses will not count against my record):
UNC-Wilmington -13½ over Delaware
Old Dominion -5 over Northeastern
Hofstra -2½ over Virginia-Commonwealth

Prediction: George Mason -16½.
Incorrect 6-3

Bradley (19-9) vs. Wichita State (24-7). Line: Bradley by 1.
MVC Tournament Featured Game of the Day

This is the semi-finals of the MVC Tournament, as No. 5 Bradley battles No. 1 Wichita State. There is no question about who needs this game more. If Wichita State were to lose to Bradley, it would still claim an at-large bid. However, the Braves need to keep going if they want to participate in the Big Dance. Bradley already lost to Wichita State twice this year. It's nearly impossible to beat the same team three times.

Bradley is 13-6 ATS in MVC play.

Other MVC Tournament Predictions (wins/losses will not count against my record):
Northern Iowa -2½ over Southern Illinois

Prediction: Bradley -1.
Correct 7-3

Saint Peter's (15-14) vs. Siena (15-12). Line: Siena by 3½.
MAAC Tournament Featured Game of the Day

This is the second round of the MAAC Tournament, as No. 5 Saint Peter's battles No. 4 Siena. Siena worked hard toward the end of the season to guarantee themselves a bye in the conference tournament. Its key victory was an 82-76 triumph at No. 2 Iona. The Saints also swept No. 6 Loyola-Maryland in February. Meanwhile, Saint Peter's hasn't done much recently except beat bad teams like Rider and UNC-Greensboro.

Siena is 17-6 ATS.
Siena is 10-3 ATS in non-home games.
Siena is 12-5 ATS in MAAC play.

Other MVC Tournament Predictions (wins/losses will not count against my record):
Iona -7½ over Niagara. Canisius +9½ over Marist.

Prediction: Siena -3½.
Incorrect 7-4

Elon (15-13) vs. Davidson (18-10). Line: Davidson by 7.
SoCon Tournament Featured Game of the Day

This is the semi-finals of the SoCon Tournament, as No. 3 Elon battles No. 2 Davidson. I bet against Davidson yesterday because the team always seems to choke in the conference tournament. The Wildcats did so last year when they were knocked out by UNC-Greensboro. They nearly did so yesterday when a 10-21 The Citadel squad gave them fits. I think Davidson will choke again. Elon might win this close contest.

Davidson is 3-10 ATS in non-home games.

Other MVC Tournament Predictions (wins/losses will not count against my record):
UT-Chattanooga -1 over Appalachian State

Prediction: Elon +7.
Push

March 3, 2006 (3-3)

James Madison (5-22) vs. Northeastern (17-10). Line: Northeastern by 16.
CAA Tournament Featured Game of the Day

This is the first round of the CAA Tournament, as No. 12 James Madison battles No. 5 Northeastern. It's a joke that the Dukes are allowed to participate in the conference tournament. I've bet against them a lot because they've been pathetic all year. They even suffered a recent 22-point loss at Northeastern. The Huskies have too much on the line to stoop down to James Madison's level.

Northeastern is 11-5 ATS in CAA play.

Other MVC Tournament Predictions (wins/losses will not count against my record):
Virginia Commonwealth -13 over William & Mary
Towson State -2 over Georgia State. (Incorrect)
Drexel -8½ over Delaware. (Incorrect)

Prediction: Northeastern -16.
Correct 1-0

Illinois-Chicago (16-14) vs. Wisconsin-Green Bay (14-15). Line: Ill-Chi by 2½.
Horizon League Tournament Featured Game of the Day

This is the second round of the CAA Tournament, as No. 6 Chicago-Illinois battles No. 3 Wisconsin-Green Bay. It's pretty odd that the lower seed has a better record than the better seed. Maybe that's because the Flames started heating up toward the end of January. In fact, Illinois-Chicago is 8-3 since Jan. 25, a run that includes a 13-point victory against Wisconsin-Green Bay. Meanwhile, the Phoenix have struggled lately, losing to the likes of Wright State and Farleigh Dickinson at home. The team also barely beat a pathetic Cleveland State squad.

No Trends

Other MVC Tournament Predictions (wins/losses will not count against my record):
Detroit -2 over Loyola-Illinois. (Incorrect)

Prediction: Illinois-Chicago -2½.
Incorrect 1-1

Canisius (8-19) vs. Loyola-Maryland (15-12). Line: Loyola-MD by 2½.
MAAC Tournament Featured Game of the Day

This is the first round of the MAAC Tournament, as No. 9 Canisius battles No. 6 Loyola-Maryland. The Golden Griffins might have the second-worst conference record in the MAAC, but they have actually played pretty well lately. They went into Saint Peter's and won, and even knocked off top-seed Manhattan, 86-75, on Feb. 11. Loyola-Maryland swept the season series against Canisius. It's tough to beat a team three times in a single season.

Canisius is 10-3 ATS in non-home games.

Other MVC Tournament Predictions (wins/losses will not count against my record):
Saint Peter's -5 over Rider. (Correct)
Fairfield +3 over Niagara. (Incorrect)

Prediction: Canisius +2½.
Correct 2-1

The Citadel (10-20) vs. Davidson (17-10). Line: Davidson by 16.
SoCon Tournament Featured Game of the Day

This is the second round of the SoCon Tournament, as No. 11 The Citadel battles No. 3 Davidson. This may seem like a mismatch, based on the records and the seeds of the two teams. However, while Davidson is a pristine 14-1 at home, it is only 3-9 in away and neutral contests. The Wildcats own one victory away from home since Jan. 17, which is a four-point triumph at The Citadel. The line is 16. The Bulldogs have played well lately, as they shocked the SoCon world by knocking off Furman on Thursday. They will keep this contest close. After all, Davidson doesn't have the best track record when it comes to SoCon tournaments; the team was upset by UNC-Greensboro last year.

The Citadel is 4-8 ATS in non-home games.
Davidson is 3-9 ATS in non-home games.

Other MVC Tournament Predictions (wins/losses will not count against my record):
Georgia Southern -6½ over Appalachian State (Incorrect)
UT-Chattanooga +6½ over College of Charleston (Correct)
Elon -3 over UNC-Greensboro (Push)

Prediction: The Citadel +16.
Correct 3-1

Indiana State (13-15) vs. Wichita State (23-7). Line: Wichita State by 10.
MVC Tournament Featured Game of the Day

This is the second round of the MVC Tournament, as No. 9 Indiana State battles No. 1 Wichita State. I'm going to keep on riding the Sycamores, who have played great since getting their top scorer, David Moss, back from injury. Indiana State is 5-4 with Moss at full strength; only two of those defeats were by double digits. Wichita State probably has an at-large bid locked up, so the Shockers don't really need to win this contest as much as Indiana State does.

No Trends

Other MVC Tournament Predictions (wins/losses will not count against my record):
Bradley -2 over Creighton (Correct)
Evansville +11 over Southern Illinois (Incorrect)
SMS -2 over Northern Iowa (Correct)

Prediction: Indiana State +10.
Incorrect 3-2

Penn (18-7) at Yale (15-12). Line: Penn by 5½.
Ivy League Featured Game of the Day

Penn can clinch at least a share of the Ivy League title with a win against Yale. Why is the line only 5½? The Quakers beat the Bulldogs by 22 on Feb. 4 even though Yale shot better than Penn. Blowout.

Penn is 6-2 ATS on the road.
Yale is 4-1 ATS at home.

Prediction: Penn -5½.
Incorrect 3-3

March 2, 2006 (3-2)

Wisconsin (19-8) at Michigan State (19-9). Line: Michigan State by 6.
Big Ten Featured Game of the Day

Wisconsin hasn't had much success on the road this conference season. Check out whom they have lost to and the corresponding deficit: Northwestern by 11; Purdue by 8; Michigan by 9; and Ohio State by 10. In fact, the Badgers only have two road victories in Big Ten play. Michigan State, a team that has demolished opponents at home by an average of 14.2 points, will be looking for revenge after losing to Wisconsin in early January, 82-63.

Wisconsin is 2-6 ATS on the road.

Prediction: Michigan State -6.
Correct 1-0

San Jose State (6-22) at Nevada (22-5). Line: Nevada by 19.
WAC Featured Game of the Day

San Jose State's record is terrible and the team has won just one game in February. However, looking at the scores of some of their contests, you'll realize that the Spartans have actually been playing well lately. They nearly knocked off Hawaii, Fresno State and New Mexico State, all of whom have winning records in the WAC. In fact, the last time San Jose State lost a game by 20 or more points was in late January. Nevada will not be focused because it is coming off a monstrous, 20-point win over new rival Utah State.

No Trends

Prediction: San Jose State +19.
Incorrect 1-1

Cal Poly-SLO (9-16) at CS-Northridge (10-15). Line: CS-Northridge by 5½.
Big West Featured Game of the Day

I know the oddsmakers usually don't make mistakes, but the person who made this line might have been on some sort of medication. CS-Northridge, a team that has lost five games in February by double digits -- including two home contests by an average of 24 points -- is favored by 5½? Keep in mind that Cal Poly-SLO recently went into 16-11 UC-Irvine and came out victorious.

Cal Poly-SLO is 16-5 ATS.
Cal Poly-SLO is 9-2 ATS on the road.
Cal Poly-SLO is 9-3 ATS in Big West play.
CS-Northridge is 5-15 ATS.
CS-Northridge is 2-5 ATS at home.
CS-Northridge is 4-8 ATS in Big West play.

Prediction: Cal Poly-SLO +5½.
Correct 2-1

Indiana State (12-15) at Drake (12-18). Line: Drake by 1½.
MVC Tournament Featured Game of the Day

This is the opening round of the MVC Tournament, which features No. 9 Indiana State at No. 8 Drake. I feel that the visiting Sycamores have a great chance of contending for the conference title because they have played well since getting back David Moss from injury. Remember, Indiana started the season on an 8-0 spurt, knocking off Indiana in the process. Meanwhile, Drake has only been victorious once in February. The Sycamores will finish them off.

Indiana State is 6-12 ATS in MVC play.
Drake is 6-11 ATS in MVC play.

Other MVC Tournament Predictions (wins/losses will not count against my record):
Evansville +1 over Illinois State. (Correct)

Prediction: Indiana State +1½.
Correct 3-1

UNC-Greensboro (11-18) at West Carolina (13-16). Line: West Carolina by 3½.
SoCon Tournament Featured Game of the Day

This is the opening round of the SoCon Tournament, which features No. 10 UNC-Greensboro at No. 7 West Carolina. The home Catamounts have finished the regular season on a hot streak and have to feel good about their chances regarding the conference title. They finished their campaign winning four of their final seven contests, which included a victory at first-place Davidson. West Carolina also beat UNC-Greensboro by 14 recently, sweeping the season series against the Spartans, who haven't won since Feb. 4.

West Carolina is 10-4 ATS in SoCon play.

Other MVC Tournament Predictions (wins/losses will not count against my record):
Furman -11 over The Citadel. (Incorrect)
Wofford -1 over Appalachian State. (Incorrect)

Prediction: West Carolina -3½.
Incorrect 3-2

March 1, 2006 (4-2)

Duke (27-1) at Florida State (17-8). Line: Duke by 7.
ACC Featured Game of the Day

Duke is ranked first in the country but I don't think the team has a chance to win the national title. Point guard Greg Paulus is shaky on the road, which is why the Blue Devils often have trouble covering when playing away from Coach K Court. In five away contests in February, Duke has beaten Boston College by 2; North Carolina by 4; Maryland and Temple by 8; and Georgia Tech by 7. This matchup means the world to Florida State because it can secure an at-large bid by knocking off the No. 1 team in the country. Don't think the Seminoles can stick with Duke? They nearly upset the Blue Devils on Feb. 4, 97-96. Duke will be looking ahead to the North Carolina rivalry on Saturday.

No Trends

Prediction: Florida State +7.
Correct 1-0

Marquette (19-8) at Louisville (17-10). Line: Louisville by 3.
Big East Featured Game of the Day

This is a must win for Louisville; it cannot afford to lose. The Cardinals are 5-9 in Big East play and on the cusp of being eliminated from participating in the Big East Tournament. Keep in mind that the Cardinals play at Connecticut to close out the regular season, so this is their final realistic chance to win a non-postseason contest. Marquette is only 3-6 on the road this year, so Louisville should be able to win this former Conference USA matchup by about 10 points.

Marquette is 11-3 ATS in Big East play.
Louisville is 7-16 ATS.
Louisville is 3-11 ATS at home.

Prediction: Louisville -3.
Correct 2-0

Texas (24-4) at Texas A&M (18-7). Line: Texas by 7.
Big XII Featured Game of the Day

This matchup is a mirror image of the Duke-Florida State contest. Even the line is the same. The home team, Texas A&M, is on the bubble but could clinch an at-large bid by knocking off a superior road squad. Texas has bigger fish to fry, as it plays Oklahoma on Sunday. I'll ask the same question I posed in my Duke-Florida State preview: Don't think the Aggies can stick with the Longhorns? Well, Texas A&M was defeated in Austin by 13 points even though Texas had its second-best shooting performance of the conference season (51.2 percent from the field).

Texas A&M is 3-7 ATS on the road.

Prediction: Texas A&M +7.
Correct 3-0

Vanderbilt (15-10) at Ole Miss (14-13). Line: Vanderbilt by 4½.
SEC Featured Game of the Day

Both of these squads have winning records but neither has played well lately. Vanderbilt has only won thrice since Jan. 22, having only been victorious once by more than three points during that timespan. Ole Miss had only one win in February. However, the Rebels played the majority of their games on the road last month. They are still 12-5 at home.

Ole Miss is 6-14 ATS.

Prediction: Ole Miss +4½.
Incorrect 3-1

UMass (12-3) at Richmond (11-16). Line: UMass by 6.
Atlantic 10 Featured Game of the Day

Let me make this quick. Richmond stinks. In the month of February, the Spiders have lost every game by 12 points or more. This includes two recent defeats to Temple and Saint Joseph's by an average of 34 points.

Richmond is 7-16 ATS.
Richmond is 4-10 ATS in Atlantic 10 play.

Prediction: UMass -6.
Incorrect 3-2

Western Michigan (13-14) at Toledo (15-10). Line: Toledo by 10.
MAC Featured Game of the Day

A classic battle between a team that can't play on the road against a squad that is nearly invincible at home. Excluding victories at MAC cellar-dwellers Ball State, Eastern Michigan and Central Michigan, the Broncos have lost every conference away contest by double digits. Meanwhile, Toledo has won its previous five games by eight points or more. This is also a revenge situation for the Rockets, who will look to get even with Western Michigan after losing to them by four points on Feb. 1.

Western Michigan is 4-8 ATS on the road.

Prediction: Toledo -10.
Correct 4-2

Season:
2007-2008: December - January - February - March -
2006-2007: November - December - January - February - March - April -

Last Week (March 3-9, 2008): 8-3-1, +$1,730

2003-2004 Season: 138-107-6 (56.3%)
2004-2005 Season: 168-148-6 (53.2%)
2005-2006 Season: 188-173-7 (52.1%)
2006-2007 Season: 273-255-8 (51.7%), +$945
2007-2008 Season: 71-64-5 (52.6%), +$1,420

Career Against The Spread: 840-727-30 (53.6%), +$2,365