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Spencer Flohr Mock Draft 1.1
Published at 11/27/2017 9:51:21 PM
The draft order is based on my predicted records for every team using the record they actually have through week 12 with injuries and upsets taken into account. The website I used for the predictions also ranks the teams accurately so tiebreakers were decided for me. I chose not to implement any trades other than those already made in real life simply because they're so hard to predict.
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The Browns have sat through terrible QB after terrible QB and DeShone Kizer clearly isn't the answer. I don't particularly like Josh Rosen as a prospect but after passing on young star quarterbacks like Carson Wentz and Deshaun Watson, Cleveland can't afford to stand pat again.
Week 9 Pick: Josh Rosen
The Niners have a strong young defense and have spent 4 of their last 5 first round picks on the D, they also now have a young QB they believe in, in the form of Jimmy Garropolo. While they may need significant O-line help, there is not an O-lineman worth taking at this point, thus Kyle Shanhan gets to add another toy, and in my opinion the best player in this draft, to his intricate offensive system. Carlos Hyde may be solid but Saquon Barkley is elite.
Week 9 Pick: Saquon Barkley
The Giants seriously need a running back but with Barkley gone, there is not one worth taking here. Thus they go defense and help out one of the worst safety duos in the league and one that has been picked apart all season. Derwin James may be a more athletic player but Minkah Fitzpatrick is better in pass coverage and that's what the Giants so desperately need.
Week 9 Pick: Minkah Fitzpatrick
This pick comes over from Houston in the Deshaun Watson trade and would be a much lower if not for Watson's injury. The Cleveland defense has been highly invested in and is starting to look solid but still lacks playmakers. Pairing Chubb, the best defensive player in this draft with Myles Garrett would cause absolute nightmares for opposing QBs.
Week 9 Pick: Derrius Guice
Jacoby Brissett has been serviceable for Indy and he is not the reason they are picking this high. Rather, they have this pick due to poor offensive line play and an overall bad defensive unit. With no offensive lineman worth taking at this pick, they go best defensive player available and get a dominant pass rusher in Arden Key.
Week 9 Pick: Arden Key
Mitch Trubisky has shown signs of being capable and the defense has been a bright spot so one of the major holes for a surprisingly decent Bears team is at wide receiver where Kendall Wright is the #1 option. No young QB can succeed without weapons to throw too so the Bears have to take the best receiver available.
Week 9 Pick: Courtland Sutton
The Broncos defense has been majorly dissapointing this year and young safety Justin Simmons has been solid but Darian Stewart has looked old and inefficient. Derwin James is just too good to pass up on at this point and provides a significant upgrade over the aging Stewart.
Week 9 Pick: Derwin James
The Dolphins are 4-7 and with Jay Cutler manning the helm I just can't see them winning too many more games. Webster may be a reach but corner is a clear weakness for the Dolphins and one that must be addressed if they want to win. Some may call for a running back but Williams and Drake have been decent enough to warrant keeping them on for one more season.
Week 9 Pick: Denzel Ward
It may be a stretch to see a guard getting selected this high but O-line has been a huge concern for the Cards and is one of the biggest reasons Palmer keeps getting hurt. Palmer is only getting older and they have to find ways to keep him upright, Nelson is the best offensive lineman in this draft and is a great fit in Arizona. The Cardinals still have a good team if everyone is healthy but their window is closing.
Week 9 Pick: Quenton Nelson
The Packers are a decent team but without Aaron Rodgers, they're mediocre at best. The offense is stacked with weapons so rather than go offense, Green Bay should target a talented edge rusher to help put pressure on opposing QBs.
Week 9 Pick: Harold Landry
Baker Mayfield isn't considered a first round prospect right now due to his size but that hasn't stopped guys like Russell WiIson and Drew Brees from succeeding. The bottom line is Baker Mayfield makes plays, win games and has the arm to be a franchise quarterback. If he can get his attitude in check he can finally give the Jets an answer at QB.
Week 9 Pick: Baker Mayfield
The Bucs have been surprisingly bad this season, in fact, I predicted they would make the playoffs at the beginning of the season but instead, they are 4-7 through week 12 including several embarrassing losses. While this can be contributed to the fact that Jameis Winston has struggled with injuries all year, the defense has been the main concern. They've been picked apart and simply put, need playmakers. Sack connousier Harold Landry can fill that role.
Week 9 Pick: Bradley Chubb
This may be a surprise considering the Cowboys have bigger needs but in all honesty, the Cowboys' receivers have been sneaky bad. Terrance Williams just isn't very good and Dez Bryant is no longer as fast or reliable as we're used to. With Ezekiel Elliott suspended the poor receiver play of Dallas has been exposed. It's time to add another top flight weapon to help Dak Prescott.
Week 9 Pick: Austin Bryant
The Raiders inside linebacker play is about as bad as it gets even with the signing of NaVorro Bowman. To have Roquan Smith, the best ILB prospect in the draft, fall to them, is an absolute blessing.
Week 9 Pick: Roquan Smith
The Bengals lost a lot of O-line help in the offseason and that was likely the main reason for Andy Dalton's regression. They need some new help up front to protect whichever QB is back there whether it's Dalton or A.J. McCarron.
Week 9 Pick: Orlando Brown
The Ravens have not had great luck drafting safeties and tried to solve the problem by signing Eric Weddle but he's been largely inneffective. Harrison is a good young safety who can start right away.
Week 9 Pick: Calvin Ridley