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Last Week's Winnings (May 5-11, 2008): 6-6 (-$310)

2006 Season Winnings: -$655 (+$2,640 since Aug. 19)
2007 Season Winnings: -$5,840
2008 Season Winnings (as of May 11): -$360

Career Winnings (as of May 11): -$6,805

Saturday, June 30, 2007 (1-6, -$225)



Milwaukee Brewers (46-33) at Chicago Cubs (39-39).
Line: Brewers -115; Cubs +105.


I don't know how much more I can take of this. I really don't. I had about two dozen bad beats this month going into yesterday. They're all documented on this Web site. But with this week's success, I thought that was behind me.

I lost four games yesterday in the bottom of the ninth or extra innings. Milwaukee blew a 5-0 lead to lose 6-5. Washington blew a 2-0 lead, thanks to bullpen mismanagement by Manny Acta, to go down 3-2. Thanks to San Francisco center fielder Dave Roberts' error in the seventh, the Diamondbacks scored two runs, eventually winning in the 10th, 4-3. Tampa Bay lost 2-1, as some Indians' pinch-hitter hit his first homer of the year - this after the Devil Rays blew many opportunities with the bases loaded.

I know what you're thinking - "Stop crying, loser! Everyone has bad beats!" But 28 in a single month? What is this? It's not natural. It's as if some black cloud is hovering over my sportsbook account. Every single team I picked yesterday, with the exception of Detroit, lost by one run.

I'm done betting for now. I'm keeping my money in my wallet, where it belongs. I'm not doing anything until football season. That said, I'll still make picks for entertainment purposes only.

Nice stat: The Brewers are just 15-23 on the road when playing the same opponent after a one-run loss. Hey, Milwaukee, you wouldn't be in this situation if you didn't blow a five-run lead!

  • Ben Sheets (R) is 3-2; 3.76 ERA; 1.23 WHIP; -1.5 Units on the road.
  • Sean Marshall (L) is 2-1; 2.14 ERA; 1.05 WHIP; +0.5 Units at home.

  • Prediction: Cubs +105.
    1 Unit.
    Incorrect; -$100




    Minnesota Twins (41-37) at Detroit Tigers (46-32).
    Line: Twins +135; Tigers -1.5 +135.


    Can't believe the Tigers lost 11-1 yesterday. Well, the good news is that Detroit, with Jim Leyland, is 4-1 at home after losing a game by seven or more runs.

  • Kaitlin Slowey (R) is 1-0; 4.09 ERA; 1.55 WHIP; +2.9 Units on the road.
  • Andrew Miller (L) is 2-0; 3.18 ERA; 1.32 WHIP; +2 Units at home.

  • Prediction: Tigers -1.5 +135.
    1 Unit.
    Incorrect; -$100




    Colorado Rockies (38-42) at Houston Astros (34-46).
    Line: Rockies +100; Astros -110.


    The Rockies are as unlucky as I am right now. They find new ways to lose every day. They're 16-34 on the road after losing by one to the same opponent.

  • Jeff Francis (L) is 3-2; 3.60 ERA; 1.33 WHIP; +2.4 Units on the road.
  • Jason Jennings (R) is 0-1; 3.67 ERA; 1.22 WHIP; -6.5 Units at home.

  • Prediction: Astros -110.
    1 Unit.
    Incorrect; -$110




    Atlanta Braves (42-38) at Florida Marlins (37-43).
    Line: Braves -1.5 +100; Marlins +135.


    These are a lot of games for someone on an unlucky streak. Whatever. I'm pissed off. Florida sucks after getting blown out at home. Don't feel like listing the record, but believe me.

  • Tim Hudson (R) is 3-1; 2.39 ERA; 0.94 WHIP; +2.4 Units on the road.
  • Byung-Hyun Kim (R) is 0-2; 7.78 ERA; 2.14 WHIP; -2 Units at home.

  • Prediction: Braves -1.5 +100.
    1 Unit.
    Incorrect; -$100




    Chicago White Sox (33-43) at Kansas City Royals (34-46).
    Line: White Sox +100; Royals -110.


    I can't believe the Royals have won five in a row. They were triumphant last night, 8-1, which is bad news for the White Sox, who are just 8-20 after a blowout loss under Ozzie Guillen.

  • John Danks (L) is 2-3; 5.01 ERA; 1.62 WHIP; -1.6 Units on the road.
  • Odalis Perez (L) is 1-4; 7.30 ERA; 1.84 WHIP; -2.7 Units at home.

  • Prediction: Royals -110.
    2 Units.
    Incorrect; -$220




    Tampa Bay Devil Rays (33-45) at Cleveland Indians (47-32).
    Line: Devil Rays +230; Indians -260.


    Back to the scene of the crime of Bad Beat No. 3. I think either Tampa Bay or Texas wins today, so that's definitely a profit at +230 and +240.

  • J.P. Howell (L) is 0-0; 8.71 ERA; 2.32 WHIP; -2 Units on the road.
  • C.C. Sabathia (L) is 3-1; 3.59 ERA; 1.13 WHIP; +7.7 Units at home.

  • Prediction: Devil Rays +230.
    1 Unit.
    Incorrect; -$100




    Texas Rangers (32-47) at Boston Red Sox (49-29).
    Line: Rangers +240; Red Sox -275.


    Interesting fact: At least one of the two highest underdogs wins 72 percent of the time. Now you see why I'm going Rangers and Rays.

  • Robinson Tejeda (R) is 2-3; 6.28 ERA; 1.70 WHIP; -0.6 Units on the road.
  • Josh Beckett (R) is 5-1; 4.22 ERA; 1.18 WHIP; +2.4 Units at home.

  • Prediction: Rangers +240.
    1 Unit.
    Correct; +$240


    Parlays

    This is easy - I can just copy-paste and change the "to win" numbers. Hopefully this actually, you know, wins tonight.

    Devil Rays/Red Sox - 1 Unit to win 3.5.
    Rangers/Indians - 1 Unit to win 3.65.
    L,W; +$265


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    Friday, June 29, 2007 (0-7, -$840)



    Milwaukee Brewers (46-32) at Chicago Cubs (38-39).
    Line: Brewers +115; Cubs -125.


    A team as hot as the Brewers should not be an underdog. I know the Cubs have won six in a row themselves, but I think that's more of a product of playing against bad competition. Milwaukee is 12-2 its last 14. The team is also 4-1 after winning a series against the Astros under Ned Yost, if that means anything to you.

  • Yovani Gallardo (R) is 1-1; 2.70 ERA; 1.05 WHIP; -0.7 Units at home (no road starts).
  • Rich Hill (L) is 2-2; 3.47 ERA; 1.18 WHIP; -4 Units at home.

  • Prediction: Brewers +115.
    .5 Units.
    Incorrect; -$50




    Washington Nationals (32-46) at Pittsburgh Pirates (33-45).
    Line: Nationals +155; Pirates -170.


    Talk about major overlay. The Pirates don't deserve to be -170 favorites over anyone. I don't care whom they're playing or who's pitching. The Nats are worth a shot at this price.

  • Matt Chico (L) is 0-4; 4.95 ERA; 1.54 WHIP; +0.5 Units on the road.
  • Ian Snell (R) is 5-2; 2.22 ERA; 1.19 WHIP; +2.8 Units at home.

  • Prediction: Nationals +155.
    .5 Units.
    Incorrect; -$50




    Minnesota Twins (40-37) at Detroit Tigers (46-31).
    Line: Twins +100; Tigers -110.


    Everyone's jumping on the Twins because Johan Santana's an underdog. Keep in mind that Santana is 0-2 as a dog the past two seasons. Not a strong stat, but I'll take Justin Verlander and the superior offense over the Twins, who don't have Justin Morneau at the moment.

  • Johan Santana (L) is 5-2; 1.80 ERA; 0.91 WHIP; +0.9 Units on the road.
  • Justin Verlander (R) is 4-1; 3.05 ERA; 1.12 WHIP; +2.2 Units at home.

  • Prediction: Tigers -110.
    1 Unit.
    Incorrect; -$110




    Tampa Bay Devil Rays (33-44) at Cleveland Indians (46-32).
    Line: Devil Rays +180; Indians -200.


    Happy Edwin Jackson Day! Actually, this may surprise you, but I'm siding with E-Jack tonight. No, I haven't lost my mind; Jackson has pitched well in three of his previous four appearances. Jake Westbrook, meanwhile, has been inconsistent this season. Tampa Bay has the lineup to expose him.

  • Edwin Jackson (R) is 0-3; 5.74 ERA; 1.53 WHIP; -0.4 Units on the road.
  • Jake Westbrook (R) is 1-1; 3.95 ERA; 1.46 WHIP; +0.9 Units at home.

  • Prediction: Devil Rays +180.
    1 Unit.
    Incorrect; -$100




    Texas Rangers (32-46) at Boston Red Sox (48-29).
    Line: Rangers +200; Red Sox -230.


    I'll continue to bet on the Rangers, who have won nine of their last 13. Boston has dropped three in a row and will be sending the mediocre Tim Wakefield to the mound tonight. Good chance Texas wins.

  • Jamey Wright (R) is 0-1; 7.20 ERA; 2.00 WHIP; -1 Units on the road.
  • Tim Wakefield (R) is 3-3; 5.54 ERA; 1.39 WHIP; -1.3 Units at home.

  • Prediction: Rangers +200.
    1 Unit.
    Incorrect; -$100




    Arizona Diamondbacks (45-35) at San Francisco Giants (33-44).
    Line: Diamondbacks +120; Giants -130.


    I can't give you a convincing write-up here. I just have a huge hunch that the Giants are going to win this game. I can't really describe it. I'm going against a nice trend in Arizona's favor, so I'm not even convinced myself. Just have a feeling that Matt Mercury Morris is going to dominate this game. I can't take the run line, however, because San Francisco's offense sucks.

  • Livan Hernandez (R) is 2-4; 5.67 ERA; 1.78 WHIP; -4 Units on the road.
  • Matt Morris (R) is 3-1; 2.79 ERA; 1.37 WHIP; +3.4 Units at home.

  • Prediction: Giants -130.
    1 Unit.
    Incorrect; -$130




    San Diego Padres (44-33) at Los Angeles Dodgers (45-34).
    Line: Padres -120; Dodgers +110.


    This is a late pick posted at 7:15 Eastern. It seems as though everyone and their ugly step-sister is on San Diego tonight. I won't be one of the sheep. The Padres can't generate any offense, and I don't think they'll have much luck against this Kuo character. The Dodgers, meanwhile, are simply on fire, winning three of four, and scoring an average of 5.5 runs the past eight nights. Chris Young had his worst outing of the year in Los Angeles, and I think we may see history repeat itself.

  • Chris Young (R) is 4-2; 3.37 ERA; 1.22 WHIP; +3.9 Units on the road.
  • Hong-Chih Kuo (L) is 1-0; 1.29 ERA; 0.86 WHIP; +1.1 Units at home.

  • Prediction: Dodgers +110.
    1 Unit.
    Incorrect; -$100


    Parlays

    One of the parlays cashed in yesterday, although it was just the Tigers money line because the Cardinals-Mets game was postponed.

    Devil Rays/Red Sox - 1 Unit to win 3.
    Rangers/Indians - 1 Unit to win 3.5.
    L,L; -$200



    Thursday, June 28, 2007 (1-2, -$150)



    Toronto Blue Jays (39-38) at Minnesota Twins (39-37).
    Line: Blue Jays -110; Twins +100.


    A small play on the Twins this afternoon; they're 9-6 at home under Ron Gardenhire after losing to the same team by one run. I'll take those odds with a slight dog.

  • A.J. Burnett (R) is 2-5; 5.06 ERA; 1.40 WHIP; -4 Units on the road.
  • Carlos Silva (R) is 2-3; 3.27 ERA; 1.32 WHIP; -1.9 Units at home.

  • Prediction: Twins +100.
    .5 Units.
    Correct; +$50




    Texas Rangers (32-45) at Detroit Tigers (45-31).
    Line: Rangers +180; Tigers -200.


    I'm simply copy-pasting yesterday's rained-out game. Same teams and same pitcher, so there's no change.

    Anyone shocked Texas is about to sweep Detroit? I'm not. As I said yesterday, the Rangers' overall record stinks, but they're 9-3 their last 12. A team that hot shouldn't be a +180 dog. Just hope Kevin Millwood doesn't eat too many Doritos before the game starts.

    Detroit is just 2-4 facing a home sweep under Jim Leyland.

    More picks to be posted soon.

  • Kevin Millwood (R) is 2-3; 6.57 ERA; 1.70 WHIP; +1.8 Units on the road.
  • Kenny Rogers (R) is 1-0; 0.00 ERA; 0.33 WHIP; +1.3 Units on the road (no home starts).

  • Prediction: Rangers +180.
    1 Unit.
    Incorrect; -$100




    St. Louis Cardinals (34-41) at New York Mets (43-33).
    Line: Cardinals +165; Mets -185.


    I think we're getting a nice price with the Cardinals. Neither team can score, so this contest is basically a toss up, in my opinion. I'll take that at +165.

  • Adam Wainwright (R) is 2-1; 4.66 ERA; 1.52 WHIP; +4.7 Units on the road.
  • Orlando Hernandez (R) is 1-1; 2.25 ERA; 1.06 WHIP; -1 Units at home.

  • Prediction: Cardinals +165.
    1 Unit.
    Game postponed; no action




    Chicago White Sox (32-42) at Tampa Bay Devil Rays (33-43).
    Line: White Sox +120; Devil Rays -1.5 +160.


    I normally don't take Tampa Bay for the full game because of its bullpen, but I'm only spending .5 Units here. The Devil Rays are 4-1 preventing a home sweep under Joe Maddon.

  • Javier Vazquez (R) is 2-2; 4.27 ERA; 1.10 WHIP; -2.2 Units on the road.
  • Scott Kazmir (L) is 0-2; 3.83 ERA; 1.57 WHIP; -0.2 Units at home.

  • Prediction: Devil Rays -1.5 +160.
    .5 Units.
    Incorrect; -$50


    Parlays

    One of the parlays hit yesterday. I was starting to get worried. Let's get one more tonight.

    Rangers/Mets - 1 Unit to win 3.3.
    Tigers/Cardinals - 1 Unit to win 3.
    L,W; -$50



    Wednesday, June 27, 2007 (2-1, +$455)



    Texas Rangers (32-45) at Detroit Tigers (45-31).
    Line: Rangers +180; Tigers -200.


    Anyone shocked Texas is about to sweep Detroit? I'm not. As I said yesterday, the Rangers' overall record stinks, but they're 9-3 their last 12. A team that hot shouldn't be a +180 dog. Just hope Kevin Millwood doesn't eat too many Doritos before the game starts.

    Detroit is just 2-4 facing a home sweep under Jim Leyland.

    More picks to be posted soon.

  • Kevin Millwood (R) is 2-3; 6.57 ERA; 1.70 WHIP; +1.8 Units on the road.
  • Kenny Rogers (R) is 1-0; 0.00 ERA; 0.33 WHIP; +1.3 Units on the road (no home starts).

  • Prediction: Rangers +180.
    1 Unit.
    Game postponed; no action




    Kansas City Royals (32-45) at Los Angeles Angels (49-29).
    Line: Royals +225; Angels -260.


    Texas' victories didn't surprise me. Kansas City's completely blows my mind. The Royals about to sweep the Angels? What's going on here? Kansas City is actually 9-6 its previous 15.

  • Jorge de la Rosa (L) is 1-4; 4.95 ERA; 1.33 WHIP; -1.8 Units on the road.
  • Jered Weaver (R) is 2-1; 4.84 ERA; 1.65 WHIP; +2.5 Units at home.

  • Prediction: Royals +225.
    1 Unit.
    Correct; +$225




    Washington Nationals (32-45) at Atlanta Braves (40-38).
    Line: Nationals +195; Braves -225.


    Micah Bowie's an exceptional pitcher and well worth the price of +195.

  • Micah Bowie (L) is 3-0; 3.71 ERA; 1.00 WHIP; +4.8 Units on the road.
  • John Smoltz (R) is 4-3; 2.49 ERA; 1.13 WHIP; -2.7 Units at home.

  • Prediction: Nationals +195.
    1 Unit.
    Incorrect; -$100




    Toronto Blue Jays (38-38) at Minnesota Twins (39-36).
    Line: Blue Jays +125; Twins -135.


    Toronto is somehow 9-5 as a road dog after losing by one to the same opponent. Boof Bonser looked sluggish in his previous two starts.

  • Josh Towers (R) is 0-2; 7.00 ERA; 2.00 WHIP; -2 Units on the road.
  • Boof Bonser (R) is 3-2; 4.44 ERA; 1.56 WHIP; +2 Units at home.

  • Prediction: Blue Jays +125.
    .5 Unit.
    Correct; +$60


    Parlays

    I can't believe the top four underdogs won the past two days. Unbelievable.

    Angels/Nationals - 1 Unit to win 3.1.
    Royals/Braves - 1 Unit to win 3.7.
    L,W; +$270



    Tuesday, June 26, 2007 (4-2, +$250)



    St. Louis Cardinals (33-40) at New York Mets (42-34).
    Line: Cardinals +185; Mets -210.


    And the bad beats go on... The White Sox and Devil Rays were locked in a 5-4 affair last night in the top of the sixth with two of the worst bullpens in baseball forthcoming. I thought the Over was a lock. Not. Ugh.

    I think there's a solid chance St. Louis wins this contest. Todd Wellemeyer is a solid pitcher, while Oliver Perez has lost three of his previous four starts.

  • Todd Wellemeyer (R) is 1-0; 5.20 ERA; 1.92 WHIP; +3.2 Units on the road.
  • Oliver Perez (L) is 4-3; 3.40 ERA; 1.11 WHIP; +0.1 Units at home.

  • Prediction: Cardinals +185.
    1 Unit.
    Correct; +$185




    Texas Rangers (31-45) at Detroit Tigers (45-30).
    Line: Rangers +195; Tigers -215.


    The Rangers' overall record stinks, but they're 8-3 their last 11. A team that hot shouldn't be a +195 dog.

  • Willie Eyre (R) is making his first start.
  • Nate Robertson (L) is 3-2; 5.05 ERA; 1.61 WHIP; -3.1 Units at home.

  • Prediction: Rangers +195.
    1 Unit.
    Correct; +$195




    Chicago White Sox (30-42) at Tampa Bay Devil Rays (33-41).
    5th Inning Line: White Sox +125; Devil Rays -135.


    The Devil Rays usually respond well after losing by one to the same opponent. I'm going fifth inning, of course, because their bullpen cannot be trusted - unless I have the Over. That should be a given.

  • Jon Garland (R) is 1-1; 3.97 ERA; 1.24 WHIP; -2.9 Units on the road.
  • James Shields (R) is 3-0; 3.32 ERA; 1.01 WHIP; +1.5 Units at home.

  • Prediction: Devil Rays -135 (5th Inning Line).
    .5 Units.
    Incorrect; -$65




    Colorado Rockies (38-38) at Chicago Cubs (36-39).
    Line: Rockies +130; Cubs -1.5 +135.


    What in the world happened to the Rockies? After sweeping the Yankees, they've fallen flat on their faces. They lost by one yesterday. Playing the same opponent, they're 16-33 after doing so.

  • Rodrigo Lopez (R) is 0-0; 2.08 ERA; 1.08 WHIP; +0.6 Units on the road.
  • Ted Lilly (L) is 3-3; 2.95 ERA; 0.96 WHIP; -4.6 Units at home.

  • Prediction: Cubs -1.5 +135.
    1 Unit.
    Correct; +$135




    Houston Astros (32-44) at Milwaukee Brewers (44-32).
    Line: Astros +125; Brewers -135.


    Wait a second... The hot Brewers with the pitching edge are just -135 over the crappy Astros? What the heck? Keep in mind 91 percent of the public is on the host, including 70 percent from the Wager Line. This is a sucker bet if I've ever seen one.

  • Wandy Rodriguez (L) is 1-4; 6.08 ERA; 1.45 WHIP; -3 Units on the road.
  • Claudio Vargas (R) is 4-0; 3.76 ERA; 1.49 WHIP; +7.1 Units at home.

  • Prediction: Astros +125.
    1 Unit.
    Incorrect; -$100




    Los Angeles Dodgers (43-33) at Arizona Diamondbacks (44-33).
    Line: Dodgers -105; Diamondbacks -105.


    The Diamondbacks were blown out last night. Will they be angry? Probably. Will it matter? Not at all. After losing by seven or more runs, Arizona is only 6-14 at home under Bob Melvin.

  • Chad Billingsley (R) is 1-0; 4.90 ERA; 1.36 WHIP; +1.3 Units on the road.
  • Edgar Gonzalez (R) is 1-1; 5.02 ERA; 1.29 WHIP; +2.2 Units at home.

  • Prediction: Dodgers -105.
    1 Unit.
    Correct; +$100


    Parlays

    Figures the day I switch this to one unit is the first time it loses.

    Cardinals/Tigers - 1 Unit to win 3.15.
    Mets/Rangers - 1 Unit to win 3.3.
    L,L; -$200



    Monday, June 25, 2007 (2-4, -$470)



    Washington Nationals (32-43) at Atlanta Braves (38-38).
    Line: Nationals +165; Braves -180.


    I'm trying to make sense of this. The Nats are the hotter team - they won two of three against Cleveland - while the Braves have scored a grand total of one run the past five days. Washington also has the superior pitcher, statistically. Why in the world are the Nats at +165? This is not a sucker bet, as 70 percent of the public is on Atlanta. Washington is 5-4 against the Braves this year. What is going on here?

  • Jason Bergmann (R) is 0-1; 2.25 ERA; 1.00 WHIP; -0.6 Units on the road.
  • Tim Hudson (R) is 3-4; 4.34 ERA; 1.34 WHIP; -1.5 Units at home.

  • Prediction: Nationals +165.
    2 Units.
    Incorrect; -$200




    San Diego Padres (42-32) at San Francisco Giants (32-42).
    Line: Padres +100; Giants -110.


    I think the Giants are extremely overvalued right now. So, they took two out of three from the Yankees. Who cares? Nine drunks could do the same. San Diego has the better lineup and pitcher.

  • Justin Germano (R) is 3-0; 1.50 ERA; 0.88 WHIP; +2.4 Units on the road.
  • Tim Lincecum (R) is 1-3; 7.08 ERA; 1.77 WHIP; -2.7 Units at home.

  • Prediction: Padres +100.
    2 Units.
    Incorrect; -$200




    Texas Rangers (30-45) at Detroit Tigers (45-29).
    Line: Rangers +190; Tigers -220.


    Lots of value with Texas here. The Rangers have quietly won seven of 10. I know the Tigers have claimed seven consecutive contests, but they're coming off a sweep at Atlanta and have to return home to play lowly Texas without any rest. The Rangers could shock them.

  • Kameron Loe (R) is 2-4; 6.70 ERA; 1.44 WHIP; -1.5 Units on the road.
  • Jeremy Bonderman (R) is 4-0; 4.26 ERA; 1.21 WHIP; +0.9 Units at home.

  • Prediction: Rangers +190.
    1 Unit.
    Correct; +$190




    Chicago White Sox (29-42) at Tampa Bay Devil Rays (33-40).
    Total: 10 (+100/-120).


    Tampa Bay has scored nine or more runs nine times this season. The first eight times they've done so, they went Over the following contest. Looking for the ninth over tonight.

  • John Danks (L) is 1-3; 4.71 ERA; 1.62 WHIP; -2.8 Units on the road.
  • J.P. Howell (L) is 1-1; 1.20 ERA; 0.80 WHIP; 0 Units at home.

  • Prediction: Over 10 +100.
    2 Units.
    Incorrect; -$200




    Boston Red Sox (48-26) at Seattle Mariners (39-33).
    Red Sox Team Total: 5.5 (-110/-120).


    I almost forgot... It's Jeff Weaver Day! I'm going against Weaver now that he's back to playing AL squads. Every single AL team he has faced this season has scored at least six runs.

  • Jeff Weaver (R) is 1-2; 7.63 ERA; 1.63 WHIP; -1.3 Units at home.

  • Prediction: Red Sox Over 5.5 (-110).
    1 Unit.
    Incorrect; -$110




    Kansas City Royals (30-46) at Los Angeles Angels (49-27).
    Line: Royals +250; Angels -300.


    No one in this crazy league deserves to be a -300 favorite. Remember when Johan Santana was -400 over the Nats? He lost that game. I have a feeling the same thing might happen here. Kansas City is 7-6 its last 13.

  • John Thomson (R) is making his first start.
  • John Lackey (R) is 4-2; 3.60 ERA; 1.36 WHIP; +1.4 Units at home.

  • Prediction: Royals +250.
    1 Unit.
    Correct; +$250


    Parlays

    One parlay hit again yesterday. As I promised, I'm increasing to one unit.

    Rangers/Angels - 1 Unit to win 2.95.
    Tigers/Royals - 1 Unit to win 4.05.
    L,L; -$200



    Sunday, June 24, 2007 (3-3, +$50)



    Minnesota Twins (37-35) at Florida Marlins (36-39).
    Line: Twins -210; Marlins +190.


    The parlays saved my hide again. I'm going increase them to a unit each on Monday. But for now, I'm taking a shot with the Marlins. After scoring 11 runs yesterday, the Twins might be a little light in the pants in regard to their run support for Johan Santana, as they've been all year. Minnesota is only 8-7 in Santana's starts.

  • Johan Santana (L) is 4-2; 1.84 ERA; 0.90 WHIP; -0.1 Units on the road.
  • Byung-Hyun Kim (R) is 0-1; 7.24 ERA; 2.20 WHIP; -1 Units at home.

  • Prediction: Marlins +190.
    .5 Units.
    Incorrect; -$50




    Colorado Rockies (38-36) at Toronto Blue Jays (36-37).
    Line: Rockies +110; Blue Jays -120. 5th Inning Total: 5.5 (-120/-110).


    Let's make this short. After scoring nine or more runs, the Blue Jays are a disgraceful 6-16 at home, with 14 of those 22 contests going Under.

  • Josh Fogg (R) is 2-2; 3.89 ERA; 1.53 WHIP; +4.1 Units on the road.
  • Dustin McGowan (R) is 2-1; 6.13 ERA; 1.50 WHIP; +2.4 Units at home.

  • Prediction: Rockies +110 - 2 Units.
    Under 5.5 (5th Inning) - 1 Unit.
    Incorrect; -$200
    Correct; +$100




    Kansas City Royals (29-46) at Milwaukee Brewers (43-31).
    Line: Royals +165; Brewers -180.


    When dealing with an unknown pitcher, I always bet on him his first start. I'm sure you've noticed that already. However, I fade him his second start. Sort of a stupid rule I have. Will it work? Who knows?

  • Odalis Perez (L) is 3-3; 4.97 ERA; 1.49 WHIP; +1.9 Units on the road.
  • Yovani Gallardo (R) is 1-0; 4.27 ERA; 1.11 WHIP; +1 Units at home.

  • Prediction: Royals +165.
    .5 Units.
    Correct; +$80




    Pittsburgh Pirates (31-43) at Los Angeles Angels (48-27).
    Line: Pirates +145; Angels -1.5 +135.


    Following a loss of seven or more runs, the Pirates are 1-8 as road dogs under Jim Tracy. Problem here is, Pittsburgh actually has a huge pitching mismatch. Tom Gorzelanny has been brilliant, while Bartolo Colon has been guility of eating way too many hot dogs. Maybe the mustard stains on his jersey will distract the Pirates' lineup. Regardless, the Gorzelanny-over-Colon edge is the only thing keeping me from making this a 3-Unit play.

  • Tom Gorzelanny (L) is 5-2; 2.94 ERA; 1.31 WHIP; +3.7 Units on the road.
  • Bartolo "Hot Dog" Colon (R) is 2-3; 5.13 ERA; 1.26 WHIP; -2.3 Units at home.

  • Prediction: Angels -1.5 +135.
    1 Unit.
    Incorrect; -$100




    Detroit Tigers (44-29) at Atlanta Braves (38-37).
    Line: Tigers -1.5 +130; Braves +110.


    The Braves are trying to avoid a home sweep under Bobby Cox. Does that mean they'll win? Well, it depends on the situation. Since 2004, Atlanta is 7-1 as a favorite but 0-4 as a dog when trying to keep another team from sweeping at Turner Field. Besides, Detroit has a huge pitching edge in this contest. No one has heard of Andrew Miller, but believe me, he's going to be a 20-game winner in the near future.

  • Andrew Miller (L) is 0-1; 4.50 ERA; 1.67 WHIP; -1.1 Units on the road.
  • Chuck James (L) is 2-3; 3.13 ERA; 1.64 WHIP; +0.1 Units at home.

  • Prediction: Tigers -1.5 +130.
    1 Unit.
    Correct; +$130


    Parlays

    As I mentioned above, I'm going to 1-Unit parlays starting Monday. Let's hit another one today.

    Twins/Royals - .5 Units to win 1.4.
    Marlins/Brewers - .5 Units to win 1.75.
    W,L; +$90



    Saturday, June 23, 2007 (2-4,-$195)



    Colorado Rockies (38-35) at Toronto Blue Jays (35-37).
    5th Inning Line: Rockies -120; Blue Jays +110.


    My regular picks failed yesterday, but one of the parlays won, so I didn't lose all that much. Well, not as much as I should have.

    Everyone on this planet placed their hard-earned money the Rockies yesterday. Talk about a sucker bet; despite the fact they just swept the Yankees, they were underdogs to the lowly Blue Jays. I thought something was up.

    Toronto should win today. The Rockies often struggle on the road following a one-run loss to the same opponent (16-32 under Clint Hurdle). I'm taking the first five innings because I can't trust John Gibbons.

  • Aaron Cook (R) is 2-1; 2.90 ERA; 1.23 WHIP; -2.5 Units on the road.
  • Ty Taubenheim (R) is making his first start.

  • Prediction: Blue Jays +110 (5th Inning Line).
    1 Unit.
    Correct; +$110




    Houston Astros (31-42) at Texas Rangers (29-44).
    Line: Astros -1.5 -105; Rangers +140.


    Ummm... why is Jamey Wright pitching in this league? Doesn't he belong in single-A baseball?

  • Roy Oswalt (R) is 2-3; 5.92 ERA; 1.68 WHIP; -3.5 Units on the road.
  • Jamey Wright (R) is 0-0; 16.85 ERA; 3.00 WHIP; +1 Units at home.

  • Prediction: Astros -1.5 -105.
    2 Units.
    Incorrect; -$210




    Minnesota Twins (36-35) at Florida Marlins (36-38).
    Line: Twins -110; Marlins +100.


    I like the Marlins as a home dog in this spot. I know Josh Johnson had a rough first outing, but he's a talented pitcher capable of rebounding.

  • Carlos Silva (R) is 2-5; 5.18 ERA; 1.54 WHIP; -1.5 Units on the road.
  • Josh Johnson (R) is 0-1; 9.81 ERA; 3.54 WHIP; -1 Units on the road (no home starts).

  • Prediction: Marlins +100.
    .5 Units.
    Incorrect; -$50




    Oakland Athletics (39-33) at New York Mets (39-32).
    Line: Athletics +130; Mets -1.5 +160.


    The Athletics are coming off a blowout loss, but they've yet to win in that situation under Bob Geren.

  • Joe Blanton (R) is 4-2; 5.22 ERA; 1.42 WHIP; +3.1 Units on the road.
  • Orlando Hernandez (R) is 1-1; 2.88 ERA; 1.08 WHIP; -2 Units at home.

  • Prediction: Mets -1.5 +160.
    1 Unit.
    Incorrect; -$100




    Kansas City Royals (29-45) at Milwaukee Brewers (42-31).
    Line: Royals +150; Brewers -165.


    I'm trying something new here. Now, this either makes sense or I'm losing it. The Brewers have won four in a row and eight of nine. Kansas City has dropped its last three. Dave Bush has been throwing better, while Brian Bannister's not a public pitcher at all. About 81 percent of the public is on Milwaukee. Yet, the line is just sitting there at -163 and -1.5 +120. Seems like a huge sucker bet to me. I'm siding with Kansas City for one unit.

  • Brian Bannister (R) is 2-1; 2.48 ERA; 0.83 WHIP; +3.3 Units on the road.
  • Dave Bush (R) is 2-4; 4.88 ERA; 1.13 WHIP; -4.1 Units at home.

  • Prediction: Royals +150.
    1 Unit.
    Incorrect; -$100




    Pittsburgh Pirates (31-42) at Los Angeles Angels (47-27).
    Line: Pirates +185; Angels -1.5 -105.


    The Pirates are coming off a one-run loss to the Angels and they have to play them again tonight. Why's that important? Under Jim Tracy, Pittsburgh is 2-10 as a road dog in that situation. This would be a 2-Unit play if Ian Snell weren't pitching.

  • Ian Snell (L) is 1-2; 3.06 ERA; 1.09 WHIP; +2.3 Units on the road.
  • Kelvim Escobar (L) is 5-2; 2.17 ERA; 1.09 WHIP; +2.2 Units at home.

  • Prediction: Angels -1.5 -105.
    .5 Units.
    Correct; +$50


    Parlays

    As I mentioned above, one of the two parlays hit last night. I'm giving out another pair tonight, so hopefully one of them is a winner.

    Yankees/Pirates - .5 Units to win 1.65.
    Giants/Angels - .5 Units to win 1.55.
    L,W; +$105



    Friday, June 22, 2007 (0-2, -$205)



    Detroit Tigers (42-29) at Atlanta Braves (38-35).
    Line: Tigers +130; Braves -1.5 +155.


    Blue Jays manager John Gibbons is a moron. He cannot be trusted with an Under or money-line pick for the entire game because he's incapable of making smart managerial decisions. I had no problem with him taking out Scott Downs, who was pitching incredibly last night. I do, however, have a problem with leaving Casey Janssen in the game for so long when he clearly didn't have his best stuff. Any competent manager would have seen this and yanked him after he gave up two hits. Not Gibbons. Gibbons lacks vision, intelligence and the ability to make solid decisions.

    Feels good to get that off my chest. Toronto blew the Under in just one inning thanks to Gibbons. There is a lesson learned here. Next time I plan on taking the Blue Jays or the Under, I'm doing it in the first five innings. I just can't trust Gibbons anymore.

    Only one real pick today, one proposition bet and one stab at the parlay system. I like the Braves here. They're 17-8 following a loss of seven or more runs the past four years. I have confidence that John Smoltz can put the clamps on Detroit's offense; he shut down the Red Sox in May, surrendering three hits and no runs in seven innings.

  • Kenny Rogers (R) is making his first start of the year.
  • John Smoltz (R) is 4-2; 1.76 ERA; 1.07 WHIP; -1.3 Units at home.

  • Prediction: Braves -1.5 +155.
    2 Units.
    Incorrect; -$200




    Cleveland Indians (42-29) at Washington Nationals (30-42).
    Indians Team Total: 5 (-110/-110)


    Micah Bowie has been outstanding thus far, but look at the lineups he's faced: Baltimore (twice), St. Louis, L.A. Dodgers, Pittsburgh and Toronto. Not the worst the majors have to offer, but not exactly Cleveland either. I think the Indians pound the Nats tonight. They're coming off an outing in which they scored 10 runs. This season, after putting up at least nine runs on the board, Cleveland has scored an average of seven per game the following contest. No game saw them score less than five.

  • Micah Bowie (L) is 1-0; 3.95 ERA; 1.25 WHIP; +3.7 Units at home.

  • Prediction: Indians Team Total Over 5 Runs (-110).
    1 Unit.
    Incorrect; -$110


    Parlays

    One of the parlays hit last night. Let's get another tonight.

    Royals/Diamondbacks - .5 Units to win 1.55.
    Brewers/Orioles - .5 Units to win 1.55.
    L,W; +$105



    Thursday, June 21, 2007 (1-1, +$80)



    Los Angeles Dogers (40-31) at Toronto Blue Jays (34-36).
    Total: 9 (-105/-115)


    After yesterday's offensive explosion, I think Toronto's lineup will be a bit subdued. Shaun Marcum, meanwhile, will put the clamps on the Dodgers' offense.

  • Chad Billingsley (R) is making his first start.
  • Shaun Marcum (R) is 1-0; 2.05 ERA; 0.96 WHIP; +2.1 Units at home.

    Prediction: Under 9 (-115).
    2 Units.
    Incorrect; -$230




    Pittsburgh Pirates (31-40) at Seattle Mariners (36-32).
    Line: Pirates +185; Mariners -1.5 +105.


    Only night games today. The Pirates are coming off a blowout loss, so they'll rebound with a victory, right? Before you answer that question, check out this stat: Under Jim Tracy, Pittsburgh is 1-7 on the road following a defeat of seven runs or more.

  • John Van Benschoten (R) is 0-1; 3.17 ERA; 1.06 WHIP; -1 Units at home (no road starts).
  • Felix Hernandez (R) is 1-2; 4.76 ERA; 1.85 WHIP; -0.7 Units at home.

    Prediction: Mariners -1.5 +105.
    2 Units.
    Correct; +$210


    Parlays

    Would have won big if it wasn't for Houston's bullpen, which surrendered six runs in the sixth inning. The Astros had the bases loaded in the eighth with just one out, and couldn't even score a single run.

    Yankees/Pirates - .5 Units to win 1.65.
    Rockies/Mariners - .5 Units to win 1.5.
    L,W; +$100



    Wednesday, June 20, 2007 (2-3, +$90)



    Tampa Bay Devil Rays (31-38) at Arizona Diamondbacks (41-31).
    5th Inning Line: Devil Rays -110; Diamondbacks +100. Total: 8.5 (-110/-110)


    Coming off a decent night; just wish I could have won Seattle as well. I have to vent a bit about Richie Sexson, the Mariners' first baseman. This clown serves no purpose. He hits .203 and bats fifth in the lineup. Who cares if he has power? He strikes out four out of five times. There were two occasions when Seattle had runners in scoring position last night, only to see Sexson strike out or ground out. At the very most, he should be a pinch hitter in the NL. But that's about it. He's just stealing money at this point.

    Going with the Tampa five-innings and Over special again. Now you see why I take the Rays first five; their bullpen blew an 8-2 lead last night.

  • James Shields (R) is 3-1; 3.27 ERA; 0.93 WHIP; +0.5 Units on the road.
  • Micah Owings (R) is 2-1; 3.05 ERA; 1.28 WHIP; -2.5 Units at home.

    Prediction: Devil Rays (5th Inning Line) -110 - 1 Unit.
    Over 8.5 (-110) - 2 Units.
    Incorrect; -$110
    Correct; +$200




    Detroit Tigers (41-29) at Washington Nationals (30-41).
    Line: Tigers -1.5 -125; Nationals +170.


    Let me just say how much of a relief it is that we finally have a team that can expose Washington's mediocre pitchers. I was getting worried there for a second. There are conflicting numbers here: The Nats are 0-4 following a blowout loss this season, but they are also 3-1 when attempting to avoid a home sweep. However, looking closely, the pitchers they had for those contests are Shawn Hill, Micah Bowie (twice) and Matt Chico. All three are much better than Mike Bacsik.

  • Jeremy Bonderman (R) is 3-0; 3.60 ERA; 1.15 WHIP; +1.9 Units on the road.
  • Mike Bacsik (L) is 0-2; 4.41 ERA; 1.47 WHIP; -3.1 Units at home.

    Prediction: Tigers -1.5 -125.
    1 Unit.
    Correct; +$100




    Minnesota Twins (35-34) at New York Mets (38-31).
    Line: Twins +170; Mets -1.5 +105.


    Just as the Twins came back from a blowout loss yesterday, I believe the Mets will do the same tonight. Not a huge play by any means.

  • Scott Baker (R) is 1-1; 4.50 ERA; 1.21 WHIP; +0.4 Units on the road.
  • Oliver Perez (L) is 4-2; 3.00 ERA; 1.02 WHIP; +1.9 Units at home.

    Prediction: Mets -1.5 +105.
    .5 Units.
    Incorrect; -$50




    Chicago Cubs (32-37) at Texas Rangers (26-44).
    Line: Cubs -1.5 +120; Rangers +110.


    Just a hunch that the Rangers don't react well when playing the same opponent following a one-run loss. I find it hard to believe Kameron Loe threw eight shutout innings against Pittsburgh in his last outing. What goes up...

  • Jason Marquis (R) is 2-1; 2.95 ERA; 1.29 WHIP; +1.5 Units on the road.
  • Kameron Loe (R) is 1-4; 7.17 ERA; 1.51 WHIP; -3 Units at home.

    Prediction: Cubs -1.5 +120.
    .5 Units.
    Incorrect; -$50


    Parlays

    My friend came up with a parlay system which seems to work. He has given me permission to post it on this site.

    Indians/Twins - .5 Units to win 1.5.
    Phillies/Mets - .5 Units to win 1.65.
    Tigers/Astros - .5 Units to win 1.5.
    Nationals/Angels - .5 Units to win 1.6.
    W,L,L,L; $0



    Tuesday, June 19, 2007 (3-2, +$85)



    Minnesota Twins (34-34) at New York Mets (38-30).
    Line: Twins -1.5 +120; Mets +125.


    Don't you hate it when you don't get what you paid for? That's how I felt last night. I took the Red Sox as a 3-Unit play because I thought Curt Schilling would rebound from his poor performance against Colorado. I was way off; Schilling was throwing 88-MPH fastballs. He was absolutely horrendous. He's either hurt or sick. I've never seen him like this in back-to-back efforts.

    Meanwhile, how did Arizona score only two runs against Edwin Jackson? I could of handled it if they lost 10-6 or 10-7. But not 10-2. That's inexcusable. Oh, and I managed to get my first bad beat of the week, as the Brewers blew a 5-1 lead and lost the run line.

    On to this pick. The Twins were blown out last night, but that's OK - they're 6-2 as road favorites under Ron Gardenhire following a loss of seven or more. Let's just hope Johan Santana doesn't throw 88-MPH fastballs.

  • Johan Santana (L) is 3-2; 2.25 ERA; 1.00 WHIP; -1.1 Units on the road.
  • Jorge Sosa (R) is 3-0; 1.77 ERA; 0.84 WHIP; +3 Units at home.

    Prediction: Twins -1.5 +120.
    1 Unit.
    Correct; +$120




    Tampa Bay Devil Rays (31-37) at Arizona Diamondbacks (40-31).
    5th Inning Line: Devil Rays +115; Diamondbacks -125. Total: 9.5 (-110/-110)


    You'll like these numbers: The Devil Rays are somehow 6-3 after scoring nine or more runs, including 3-1 as a road dog. All of their away contests have gone Over in those situations. Meanwhile, Arizona is 5-14 on the run line at home following a loss of seven or more.

  • J.P. Howell (L) is 0-0; 10.80 ERA; 2.20 WHIP; -1 Units on the road.
  • Doug Davis (L) is 2-2; 4.11 ERA; 1.66 WHIP; +2 Units at home.

    Prediction: Devil Rays (5th Inning Line) +115 - 1 Unit.
    Over 9.5 (-110) - 2 Units.
    Correct; +$115
    Correct; +$200




    Houston Astros (30-40) at Los Angeles Angels (45-26).
    Line: Astros +145; Angels -1.5 +130.


    The Astros are 4-11 under Jim Garner following a one-run loss to the same opponent. Hopefully the Dorito stains on Bartolo Colon's jersey don't interfere with his performance.

  • Jason Jennings (R) is 0-0; 1.29 ERA; 1.00 WHIP; +1.4 Units on the road.
  • Bartolo Colon (R) is 2-1; 3.95 ERA; 1.03 WHIP; -0.8 Units at home.

    Prediction: Angels -1.5 +130.
    1 Unit.
    Incorrect; -$100




    Pittsburgh Pirates (30-39) at Pittsburgh Pirates (35-31).
    Line: Pirates +115; Mariners -125.


    I can't believe the Mariners have dropped five in a row. After getting swept against Houston of all teams, I believe they will rebound tonight against Pittsburgh. I hate going against Tom Gorzelanny because he's one of the better pitchers in baseball, but the price is fair (-125).

  • Tom Gorzelanny (L) is 4-2; 3.00 ERA; 1.33 WHIP; +2.5 Units on the road.
  • Miguel Batista (R) is 3-3; 6.09 ERA; 1.50 WHIP; +0.1 Units at home.

    Prediction: Mariners -125.
    2 Unit.
    Incorrect; -$250



    Monday, June 18, 2007 (0-4, -$650)



    Boston Red Sox (44-24) at Atlanta Braves (37-33).
    Line: Red Sox -1.5 +110; Braves +135.


    I'm seriously one bad beat away from starting a new Web site called BadSportsBeats.com. Chalk up a 3-Unit play to the list. I had the Twins -1.5 +150 yesterday as a 3-Unit bet. They were up 9-4 in the eighth and I was feeling pretty confident. Those feelings shattered when the Brewers scored five runs in two innings, including an inside-the-park home run. Should have seen that one coming.

    Curt Schilling is a perfectionist and never has two bad outings in a row. Never. He'll throw lights out tonight. Actually, I already know what's going to happen. Boston will be up 9-1 in the bottom of the ninth. Atlanta will hit three consecutive grand slams to win 13-9. Another 3-Unit play in the loss column.

  • Curt Schilling (R) is 4-2; 3.40 ERA; 1.13 WHIP; +1.5 Units on the road.
  • Chuck James (L) is 1-3; 3.08 ERA; 1.63 WHIP; -0.1 Units at home.

    Prediction: Red Sox -1.5 +110.
    3 Units.
    Incorrect; -$300




    San Francisco Giants (30-38) at Milwaukee Brewers (38-31).
    Line: Giants +115; Brewers -1.5 +160.


    OK, so, let's see. The Brewers will be leading 7-1 in the ninth. Barry Bonds will somehow hit a five-run homer to draw within 7-6, destroying my run-line wager.

  • Noah Lowry (L) is 1-4; 4.20 ERA; 1.45 WHIP; -1.8 Units on the road.
  • Yavoni Gallardo (R) is making his first start.

    Prediction: Brewers -1.5 +160.
    1 Unit.
    Incorrect; -$100




    Tampa Bay Devil Rays (30-37) at Arizona Diamondbacks (40-30).
    Line: Devil Rays +165; Diamondbacks -1.5 +100.


    Happy Edwin Jackson Day! Well, maybe not "happy." My favorite holiday will be derailed by a 1-0 Tampa Bay victory, thanks to nine scoreless innings thrown by Edwin Jackson.

  • Edwin Jackson (R) is 0-3; 6.07 ERA; 1.50 WHIP; -1.9 Units on the road.
  • Livan Hernandez (R) is 3-0; 2.66 ERA; 1.27 WHIP; +2.3 Units at home.

    Prediction: Diamondbacks -1.5 +100.
    2 Units.
    Incorrect; -$200




    Cincinnati Reds (27-43) at Oakland Athletics (37-31).
    Line: Reds +175; Athletics -195.


    So, I have a 3-, 2-, 1- and .5-Unit pick today. How cute. I'm going to lose this one out of good old stupidity. Reds over A's? Kyle Lohse over Joe Blanton? What am I thinking?

  • Kyle Lohse (R) is 2-5; 5.21 ERA; 1.43 WHIP; -3.1 Units on the road.
  • Joe Blanton (R) is 2-2; 1.91 ERA; 0.81 WHIP; +3.1 Units at home.

    Prediction: Reds +175.
    .5 Units.
    Incorrect; -$50



    Sunday, June 17, 2007 (2-3-1, -$320)



    Atlanta Braves (37-32) at Cleveland Indians (39-28).
    Line: Braves +175; Indians -1.5 -110.


    Another horrendous day of baseball. These past three weeks have been brutal. I'm confident we can rebound and go on a hot streak. The only question is when?

    I'll be adding picks periodically here, as I'm late getting up. The Indians are about to get swept by an inferior NL team. Not going to happen.

  • Kyle Davies (R) is 2-3; 5.34 ERA; 1.75 WHIP; -1.8 Units on the road.
  • Fausto Carmona (R) is 3-1; 3.38 ERA; 1.18 WHIP; +3.2 Units at home.

    Prediction: Indians -1.5 -110.
    .5 Units.
    Correct; +$50




    Texas Rangers (25-43) at Cincinnati Reds (27-42).
    Reds Team Total: 5.5 (-115/-115).


    This is a fade of Kevin Millwood, one of the worst pitchers in baseball right now. Someone asked me, "What happened to Milwood? He used to be so good." I replied, "That's easy. Doritos, Cheetos and cupcakes." True story.

  • Kevin Millwood (R) is 1-3; 6.68 ERA; 1.77 WHIP; +0.4 Units on the road.
  • Bronson Arroyo (R) is 1-2; 6.82 ERA; 1.77 WHIP; -1.1 Units at home.

    Prediction: Reds Team Total Over 5.5 (-115).
    1 Unit.
    Incorrect; -$115




    Milwaukee Brewers (38-30) at Minnesota Twins (33-33).
    Line: Brewers +120; Twins -1.5 +150.


    I can't believe Milwaukee, a team that's brutal on the road, is about to sweep Minnesota. Crazy. Are the Twins just going to lay down and let the Brew Crew walk all over them? Not a chance. You'll like this stat: Under Ron Gardenhire, Minnesota is 12-1 against the run line when attempting to avoid a home sweep. Very impressive - impressive enough to put my 3-Unit 3-1 record on the line here.

  • Jeff Suppan (R) is 3-5; 4.36 ERA; 1.39 WHIP; -1.2 Units on the road.
  • Kevin Slowey (R) is 1-0; 3.00 ERA; 1.17 WHIP; +1.0 Units at home.

    Prediction: Twins -1.5 +150.
    3 Units.
    Incorrect; -$300




    San Diego Padres (39-28) at Chicago Cubs (31-36).
    Line: Padres +115; Cubs -125.


    Another sweet stat by a manager: Under Lou Piniella, the most-overrated manager in the history of baseball, the Cubs are 6-2 against the run line after a one-run loss to the same opponent.

  • Greg Maddux (R) is 2-5; 4.36 ERA; 4.95 WHIP; -3.2 Units on the road.
  • Rich Hill (L) is 2-1; 2.43 ERA; 1.11 WHIP; -2.5 Units at home.

    Prediction: Cubs -125.
    .5 Units.
    Incorrect; -$60




    Tampa Bay Devil Rays (29-37) at Colorado Rockies (35-33).
    5th Inning Line: Devil Rays +105; Rockies -115. Total: 9.5 (-110/-110)


    Same deal as yesterday. Take the Devil Rays (five innings, so you don't have to deal with the bullpen) and the Over.

  • Scott Kazmir (L) is 4-1; 4.46 ERA; 1.51 WHIP; +3.3 Units on the road.
  • Aaron Cook (R) is 2-2; 6.07 ERA; 1.49 WHIP; +0.2 Units at home.

    Prediction: Devil Rays +105 (5th Inning Line) - 1 Unit.
    Over 9.5 (-110) - 1 Unit.
    Push; +$5
    Correct; +$100



    Saturday, June 16, 2007 (2-7, -$605)



    New York Mets (37-28) at New York Yankees (33-32).
    Line: Mets +135; Yankees -145.


    Well, the good news is I'm now 3-1 in my 3-Unit plays. The bad news is I'm still way down for the week.

    I can't believe this Clippard person is favored over Tom Glavine. That's the definition of value.

  • Tom Glavine (L) is 3-3; 4.05 ERA; 1.33 WHIP; +2.4 Units on the road.
  • Tyler Clippard (R) is 0-1; 10.56 ERA; 1.96 WHIP; -0.5 Units at home.

    Prediction: Mets +135.
    .5 Units.
    Incorrect; -$50




    San Francisco Giants (30-36) at Boston Red Sox (42-24).
    Line: Giants +185; Red Sox -1.5 -110.


    You really have to feel for Matt Cain. Despite his solid statistics, the Giants are only 2-11 when he starts. They're just not capable of giving him proper run support. Boston should be able to roll today.

  • Matt Cain (R) is 1-3; 2.62 ERA; 1.32 WHIP; -5.3 Units on the road.
  • Daisuke Matsuzaka (R) is 3-2; 5.62 ERA; 1.32 WHIP; +0.7 Units at home.

    Prediction: Red Sox -1.5 -110.
    .5 Units.
    Incorrect; -$55




    Atlanta Braves (36-32) at Cleveland Indians (39-27).
    Line: Braves -105; Indians -105.


    It's amazing that we're getting John Smoltz over Paul Byrd at even money. The Indians seldom win at home following a blowout loss.

  • John Smoltz (R) is 3-1; 3.89 ERA; 1.34 WHIP; +2.6 Units on the road.
  • Paul Byrd (R) is 4-1; 5.50 ERA; 1.50 WHIP; +0.4 Units at home.

    Prediction: Braves -105.
    1 Unit.
    Correct; +$100




    Texas Rangers (25-42) at Cincinnati Reds (26-42).
    Line: Rangers +155; Reds -170.


    Taking Texas on the road is probably one of the dumbest things I've ever done, but what the heck. You'll like this stat: Under Jerry Narron, the Reds are 1-5 against the run line at home (4-10 overall) following a one-run loss to the same team.

  • Jamey Wright (R) is 1-0; 16.58 ERA; 3.00 WHIP; -1.4 Units at home (no road starts).
  • Aaron Harang (R) is 3-1; 3.57 ERA; 1.17 WHIP; +0.1 Units at home.

    Prediction: Rangers +155.
    1 Unit.
    Incorrect; -$100




    Milwaukee Brewers (37-30) at Minnesota Twins (33-32).
    Line: Brewers +115; Twins -1.5 +150.


    I like the Twins a lot here; I think they rebound off the blowout they suffered last night. Boof Bonser over Dave Bush is a no-brainer as well. We also have the AL-over-NL dynamic.

  • Dave Bush (R) is 1-2; 6.97 ERA; 1.71 WHIP; -2.1 Units on the road.
  • Boof Bonser (R) is 3-1; 4.26 ERA; 1.62 WHIP; +3.3 Units at home.

    Prediction: Twins -1.5 +150.
    2 Units.
    Incorrect; -$200




    Tampa Bay Devil Rays (29-36) at Colorado Rockies (34-33).
    5th Inning Line: Devil Rays +120; Rockies -130. Total: 10 (-110/-110)


    I don't know how the Devil Rays do it, but they're 7-3 as road dogs after surrendering nine runs or more. That's amazing given their overall mark. They usually tend to go Over the total as well. Remember, if you take Tampa Bay, make sure it's on a fifth-inning line; its bullpen cannot be trusted.

  • Andy Sonnanstine (R) is 1-1; 5.14 ERA; 1.07 WHIP; 0 Units on the road.
  • Jason Hirsh (R) is 1-4; 5.15 ERA; 1.31 WHIP; -4.6 Units at home.

    Prediction: Devil Rays +120 (5th Inning Line) - 1 Unit.
    Over 10 (-110) - 1 Unit.
    Incorrect; -$100
    Correct; +$100




    St. Louis Cardinals (28-36) at Oakland Athletics (37-29).
    Line: Cardinals +150; Athletics -1.5 +120. Total: 9 (-110/-110)


    Taking Oakland again, but not for 3 Units. Tony LaRussa just can't win as a road dog following a blowout loss. I like the Under as well.

  • Todd Wellemeyer (R) is 1-0; 5.40 ERA; 1.60 WHIP; +1.6 Units on the road.
  • Lenny DiNardo (L) is 1-1; 0.79 ERA; 1.24 WHIP; +0.1 Units at home.

    Prediction: Athletics -1.5 +120 - 2 Units.
    Under 9 (-110) - 1 Unit.
    Incorrect; -$200
    Incorrect; -$100



    Friday, June 15, 2007 (1-2, +$195)



    Texas Rangers (24-42) at Cincinnati Reds (26-41).
    Line: Rangers +120; Reds -1.5 +145.


    Yesterday was the single worst day in my sports-betting career. First of all, the Cubs managed to score only three runs on Jeff Weaver. They blew a 3-0 lead in the sixth to trail 4-3. They had multiple opportunities to take the lead and they did, 5-4. However, they twice had runners at the corners with one out and couldn't capitalize. All we needed was one sac fly for the cover, but we couldn't get it. Next, the Orioles had runners in scoring position all night, but managed to score only once on Jason Simontacchi. I saw more double plays from Baltimore than I've seen from any other squad. Simontacchi even picked someone off second base. How does that happen?

    But the coup de grace was the final 1.9 seconds of the Cavaliers-Spurs game. San Antonio -3 was the right side. Despite a barrage of meaningless threes by LeBron James, the Spurs maintained a 4-point lead. With no timeouts, I thought Cleveland would do the respectable thing, and just inbound the ball and let the time run out. Didn't happen. They heaved it down the court, setting up a meaningless three by Damon Jones. The ball went in as the buzzer sounded. Game over. Spurs won by one, failing to cover the 3-point spread.

    Words can't describe how frustrated I am. When that Jones shot went in, I sat in silence for about a half an hour. I just couldn't believe the miserable luck I had the entire day.

    I just don't care anymore. This is a simple Vicente Padilla fade. With the misfortune I'm having, you may want to go against me.

  • Vicente Padilla (R) is 0-5; 8.74 ERA; 2.06 WHIP; -7.4 Units on the road.
  • Matt Belisle (R) is 1-3; 4.68 ERA; 1.44 WHIP; -4.2 Units at home.

    Prediction: Reds -1.5 +145.
    1 Unit.
    Incorrect; -$100




    San Diego Padres (38-27) at Chicago Cubs (30-35).
    Line: Padres +115; Cubs -125.


    Just for a rooting interest, as this is the only game on in the afternoon. Going against the Cubs as favorites is always a good idea.

  • David Wells (L) is 2-3; 7.31 ERA; 1.91 WHIP; +0.4 Units on the road.
  • Ted Lilly (L) is 2-3; 3.26 ERA; 0.98 WHIP; +4.1 Units at home.

    Prediction: Padres +115.
    .5 Units.
    Incorrect; -$50




    St. Louis Cardinals (28-35) at Oakland Athletics (36-29).
    Line: Cardinals +170; Athletics -1.5 +115.


    It's probably not smart to do this, given the horrible luck I'm having, but I like this game a lot. I'm taking Oakland for three units.

  • Braden Looper (R) is 3-3; 4.75 ERA; 1.42 WHIP; +1.7 Units on the road.
  • Dan Haren (R) is 4-0; 1.80 ERA; 0.88 WHIP; +4.1 Units at home.

    Prediction: Athletics -1.5 +115.
    3 Units.
    Correct; +$345



    Thursday, June 14, 2007 (2-5, -$575)



    San Diego Padres (37-27) at Tampa Bay Devil Rays (29-34).
    5th Inning Line: Padres -120; Devil Rays -110. Total: 9 (-105/-115)


    Last night was OK; could have been better if the Mariners and Marlins held on to their leads. As a tribute to things going back to normal, it was a relief to see Justin Germano struggle in his last outing. I just wasn't in the mood to bash the Phillies for giving up another bright, young pitching prospect. I'm going with the Devil Rays; they're an amazing 11-3 after surrendering nine runs or more. All of their home games have gone under in that situation. Go with the fifth-inning line. There's no way anyone should have to deal with that horrible bullpen.

  • Justin Germano (R) is 2-1; 2.00 ERA; 0.94 WHIP; +1.4 Units on the road.
  • J.P. Howell (L) is 1-0; 1.13 ERA; 0.63 WHIP; +1 Units at home.

    Prediction: Devil Rays -110 (5th Inning Line) - .5 Units.
    Under 9 (-115) - .5 Units.
    Incorrect; -$55
    Correct; +$50




    Seattle Mariners (35-27) at Chicago Cubs (29-35).
    Line: Mariners +135; Cubs -1.5 +140.


    Happy Jeff Weaver Day! Time to make some money - or jinx those who've already bet on the Cubs! If I finish the season in the plus column betting against Weaver and Edwin Jackson, I'm going to buy their jersey through ESPN Shop (see the banner on the right) and wear it proudly. Every single day.

  • Jeff Weaver (R) is 0-4; 10.52 ERA; 2.03 WHIP; -2.7 Units on the road.
  • Jason Marquis (R) is 3-2; 3.08 ERA; 1.16 WHIP; +1.3 Units at home.

    Prediction: Cubs -1.5 +140.
    2 Units.
    Incorrect; -$200




    Texas Rangers (23-42) at Pittsburgh Pirates (28-37).
    Line: Rangers +140; Pirates -1.5 +120.


    The Rangers are a mess right now. I'm going to keep fading them and the White Sox until either shows some sort of life.

  • Brandon McCarthy (R) is 2-3; 6.04 ERA; 1.77 WHIP; -0.6 Units on the road.
  • Tom Gorzelanny (R) is 2-1; 2.50 ERA; 1.21 WHIP; -3.4 Units at home.

    Prediction: Pirates -1.5 +120.
    .5 Units.
    Incorrect; -$50




    Cleveland Indians (38-26) at Florida Marlins (32-34).
    Line: Indians +125; Marlins -135.


    Any time I can get a strong AL squad as a moderate-sized dog against an average NL team, I'll take it. I don't care who's pitching. Edwin Jackson and Jeff Weaver could be on the mound for all I care.

  • Jason Stanford (L) is making his first start.
  • Dontrelle Willis (L) is 2-3; 6.14 ERA; 1.68 WHIP; +0.5 Units at home.

    Prediction: Indians +125.
    1 Unit.
    Correct; +$125




    Washington Nationals (28-37) at Baltimore Orioles (29-36).
    Line: Nationals +170; Orioles -1.5 +110.


    This isn't exactly a long-lasting trend here, but the Orioles are 3-1 when attempting to avoid a home sweep under Sam Perlozzo. Baltimore will do everything in its power to avoid getting swept by the pesky Nats.

  • Jason Simontacchi (R) is 2-1; 4.26 ERA; 1.11 WHIP; +2.3 Units on the road.
  • Jeremy Guthrie (R) is 1-1; 2.42 ERA; 1.04 WHIP; -3.4 Units at home.

    Prediction: Orioles -1.5 +110.
    2 Units.
    Incorrect; -$200




    Colorado Rockies (32-33) at Boston Red Sox (41-23).
    Line: Rockies +195; Red Sox -1.5 -110.


    How in the world did the Rockies beat the Red Sox 12-2? It's not like Edwin Jackson kidnapped Curt Schilling, painted his face to look like him and took the mound for Boston. I had to look up how the Red Sox have fared following losses of seven or more under Terry Francona. I discovered that they are 11-5 against the run line (meaning they either won as home dogs or were triumphant by two or more as favorites). Three of those five defeats were at the hands of the Yankees.

  • Jeff Francis (L) is 2-2; 3.09 ERA; 1.11 WHIP; +1.5 Units on the road.
  • Josh Beckett (R) is 5-0; 3.48 ERA; 1.07 WHIP; +4.6 Units at home.

    Prediction: Red Sox -1.5 -110.
    2 Units.
    Incorrect; -$220


    $25 Shield Bet to win $215
    (Parlay all 1- and 2-Unit picks against yourself just in case of a disastrous day)
    Incorrect; -$25



    Wednesday, June 13, 2007 (3-3, +$105)



    Toronto Blue Jays (29-34) at San Francisco Giants (30-33).
    Line: Blue Jays +135; Giants -145.


    OK, let's try this again. The Blue Jays are now 22-11, not 22-10, following a one-run loss to the same opponent. By the way, Vernon Wells' average is now down to around .245. How much money is he stealing? What a bum. I'd take him out of the lineup because he's contributing nothing at this point. Easily one of the most overrated players in the history of baseball.

  • Dustin McGowan (R) is 0-2; 5.96 ERA; 1.41 WHIP; -4 Units on the road.
  • Tim Linecum (R) is 1-0; 4.86 ERA; 1.50 WHIP; -1.4 Units at home.

    Prediction: Blue Jays +135.
    2 Units.
    Correct; +$270




    Cleveland Indians (37-26) at Florida Marlins (32-33).
    Line: Indians -120; Marlins +110.


    I can't believe Clifton Lee is the worse pitcher statisticaly in this matchup (overall, not home-road, obviously). The Natives are 10-15 following an affair in which they scored no runs under Eric Wedge.

  • Clifton Lee (L) is 1-3; 6.14 ERA; 1.40 WHIP; -3.9 Units on the road.
  • Byung-Hyun Kim (R) is 0-0; 11.25 ERA; 2.75 WHIP; 0 Units at home.

    Prediction: Marlins +110.
    .5 Units.
    Incorrect; -$50




    Colorado Rockies (31-33) at Boston Red Sox (41-22).
    Line: Rockies +215; Red Sox -2.5 +140.


    You can tell the Rockies are a pathetic organization by the following stat: Following one-run losses to the same opponent, Colorado is 15-32 on the road under Clint Hurdle. Then again, Curt Schilling over Josh Fogg is already a no-brainer.

  • Josh Fogg (R) is 1-2; 3.93 ERA; 1.52 WHIP; +1.9 Units on the road.
  • Curt Schilling (R) is 2-0; 3.57 ERA; 1.34 WHIP; +4.2 Units at home.

    Prediction: Red Sox -2.5 +140.
    1 Unit.
    Incorrect; -$100




    San Diego Padres (36-27) at Tampa Bay Devil Rays (25-40).
    Line: Padres -2.5 +135; Devil Rays +180.


    Happy Edwin Jackson Day! Time to make some money! Or jinx those who have already bet against Tampa Bay!

  • Jake Peavy (R) is 3-0; 1.06 ERA; 0.85 WHIP; -0.2 Units on the road.
  • Edwin Jackson (R) is 0-4; 8.77 ERA; 2.22 WHIP; -4.4 Units at home.

    Prediction: Padres -2.5 +135.
    1 Unit.
    Correct; +$135




    St. Louis Cardinals (27-34) at Kansas City Royals (25-40).
    Line: Cardinals -105; Royals -105.


    After yesterday's 8-1 thrashing, I have a feeling St. Louis will take no prisoners tonight.

  • Adam Wainwright (R) is 1-1; 5.96 ERA; 1.85 WHIP; +3.7 Units on the road.
  • Odalis Perez (L) is 1-3; 6.35 ERA; 1.65 WHIP; -1.6 Units at home.

    Prediction: Cardinals -105.
    .5 Units.
    Correct; +$50




    Seattle Mariners (35-26) at Chicago Cubs (28-35).
    Line: Mariners +125; Cubs -135.


    I love getting the Mariners as an underdog here. There's no way the Cubs should be favored over a 35-26 AL team.

  • Miguel Batista (R) is 3-1; 5.05 ERA; 1.68 WHIP; +5.4 Units on the road.
  • Sean Marshall (L) is 1-1; 2.08 ERA; 1.15 WHIP; -0.5 Units at home.

    Prediction: Mariners +125.
    2 Units.
    Incorrect; -$200



    Tuesday, June 12, 2007 (1-2, -$235)



    Texas Rangers (23-40) at Pittsburgh Pirates (26-37).
    Line: Rangers -105; Pirates -105.


    Coming off a terrible night. Adam Eaton killed me, as he threw a shutout against the White Sox. Seriously? Adam Eaton?

    What sort of interest could I possibly have in this game? Well, the Pirates are coming off a loss of seven or more, and they're OK at home in that situation. The Rangers are dreadful on the road (9-22).

  • Kevin Millwood (R) is 1-2; 6.07 ERA; 1.69 WHIP; +1.5 Units on the road.
  • Zach Duke (L) is 0-3; 5.50 ERA; 1.63 WHIP; -2.4 Units at home.

    Prediction: Pirates -105.
    .5 Units.
    Correct; +$50




    St. Louis Cardinals (27-33) at Kansas City Royals (24-40).
    Total: 9.5 (-110/-110).


    I've noticed that whenever the Royals score nine or more runs, they usually play Over the next game if they're at home. I still can't believe they put up 17 against Philadelphia. Well, actually I can because the Phillies are one of the most crooked and inept organizations that Major League Baseball has to offer. No one even knows who the owners are!

  • Brad Thompson (R) is 2-1; 4.58 ERA; 1.22 WHIP; +1.9 Units on the road.
  • Brian Bannister (R) is 0-2; 5.06 ERA; 1.69 WHIP; -3 Units at home.

    Prediction: Over 9.5 Runs -110.
    .5 Units.
    Incorrect; -$55




    Toronto Blue Jays (29-33) at San Francisco Giants (29-33).
    Line: Blue Jays -115; Giants +105.


    As you can probably surmise after reading my comments about the lifeless Blue Jays yesterday, I seldom expect them to have success. There is, however, one situation where betting on Toronto pays dividends. Following one-run defeats to the same opponent, the Blue Jays are an incredible 22-10 under John Gibbons, including 10-5 on the road.

  • A.J. Burnett (R) is 2-4; 5.19 ERA; 1.36 WHIP; -3 Units on the road.
  • Noah Lowry (L) is 4-1; 2.70 ERA; 1.31 WHIP; +1.6 Units at home.

    Prediction: Blue Jays -115.
    2 Units.
    Incorrect; -$230



    Monday, June 11, 2007 (1-3, -$315)



    Chicago White Sox (26-32) at Philadelphia Phillies (32-30).
    Line: White Sox +110; Phillies -120.


    Some bad breaks yesterday, as the Mets, Rangers and Padres all surrendered multi-run leads to lose straight up. Texas' defeat hurt especially.

    As I've mentioned a few times, the Phillies are pretty easy to figure out. They lose when they're supposed to win and vice versa. That's why they lost two of three to Kansas City after sweeping the Mets. Well, they're favored in this series, so you have to take the White Sox.

  • Javier Vazquez (R) is 2-1; 3.76 ERA; 1.11 WHIP; +0.2 Units on the road.
  • Adam Eaton (R) is 2-3; 7.04 ERA; 1.92 WHIP; -0.5 Units at home.

    Prediction: White Sox +110.
    2 Units.
    Incorrect; -$200




    Seattle Mariners (32-26) at Cleveland Indians (37-23).
    Total: 10.5 (-105/-115).


    The Indians are seldom held scoreless, but when it happens, they can't seem to generate offense the next day. Under Eric Wedge, Cleveland has combined for 10 Unders and 4 Overs at home following a zero-run outing.

  • Cha Seung Baek (R) is 2-1; 5.34 ERA; 1.32 WHIP; +4.8 Units on the road.
  • Paul Byrd (R) is 4-1; 4.22 ERA; 1.34 WHIP; +1.8 Units at home.

    Prediction: Under 10.5 Runs -115.
    1 Unit.
    Incorrect; -$115




    Houston Astros (26-36) at Chicago Cubs (27-34).
    Line: Astros +165; Cubs -185.


    You know what I said about the Phillies? Same applies to the Cubs. They just played well at Atlanta, and Carlos Zambrano, who just had a brilliant performance, will be pitching at home as a hefty favorite. No way the Cubbies lose, right?

  • Woody Williams (R) is 1-5; 5.81 ERA; 1.48 WHIP; -0.8 Units on the road.
  • Carlos Zambrano (R) is 1-4; 7.91 ERA; 1.85 WHIP; -8.3 Units at home.

    Prediction: Astros +165.
    1 Unit.
    Incorrect; -$100




    Toronto Blue Jays (29-32) at San Francisco Giants (28-33).
    Line: Blue Jays +135; Giants -145.


    One other thing I like to do is study how teams fare after scoring nine or more runs in a ball game. It should be no surprise that the lifeless Blue Jays often falter after doing so; under John Gibbons, they're a horrendous 10-32, including 3-11 as a road dog. There's no way I'm playing the run line with San Francisco's inept offense, so I'll risk a smaller amount on the -145 money line.

    Increased this to 1 Unit at 6:41 p.m.

  • Josh Towers (R) is 0-1; 7.20 ERA; 2.40 WHIP; -1 Units on the road.
  • Matt Morris (R) is 2-1; 2.14 ERA; 1.31 WHIP; +0.8 Units at home.

    Prediction: Giants -145.
    1 Unit.
    Correct; +$100



    Sunday, June 10, 2007 (1-5, -$250)



    New York Mets (36-23) at Detroit Tigers (34-26).
    Line: Mets +105; Tigers -115.


    We're getting a good price on the better pitcher, aren't we? I think Tom Glavine against a team unfamiliar with him at +105 is a steal.

  • Tom Glavine (L) is 3-2; 2.55 ERA; 1.16 WHIP; +3.5 Units on the road.
  • Andrew Miller (L) is 1-0; 0.00 ERA; 1.17 WHIP; +1 Units at home.

    Prediction: Mets +105.
    1 Unit.
    Incorrect; -$100




    Colorado Rockies (30-32) at Baltimore Orioles (29-33).
    Line: Rockies +150; Orioles -1.5 +125.


    The Orioles just lost to Colorado by one and will be playing them against this afternoon. Under Sam Perlozzo, they're 6-5 against the RUN LINE at home in such a situation. That's close to .500, but remember, you're almost always getting positive juice on the Run Line. Besides, Erik Bedard over Jason Hirsh is a no-brainer.

  • Jason Hirsh (R) is 1-2; 4.55 ERA; 1.52 WHIP; +2.1 Units on the road.
  • Erik Bedard (L) is 1-2; 2.93 ERA; 1.24 WHIP; +0.6 Units at home.

    Prediction: Orioles -1.5 +125.
    .5 Units.
    Incorrect; -$50




    Houston Astros (26-35) at Chicago White Sox (26-32).
    Line: Astros +130; White Sox -1.5 +145.


    A few days ago, I discussed how horrendous Ozzie Guillen was after coming off a loss of seven or more runs. Well, I just checked how he fares after a one-run loss to the same opponent. I was really surprised. The past three years, Guillen is 8-3 against the RUN LINE at home in those situations. My theory is Guillen starts barking like a dog following a close defeat and the players get scared and/or confused.

  • Wandy Rodriguez (L) is 1-3; 6.28 ERA; 1.54 WHIP; -1 Units on the road.
  • Mark Buehrle (L) is 1-2; 4.33 ERA; 1.27 WHIP; +1.8 Units at home.

    Prediction: White Sox -1.5 +145.
    2 Units.
    Correct; +$290




    Seattle Mariners (32-26) at San Diego Padres (36-25).
    Line: Mariners +125; Padres -135.


    Despite last night's loss, the Padres are 5-1 at home (2-4 on the Run Line) following a loss by one against the same opponent at home. Chris Young is unhittable in his own house, while King Felix has been pitching like a court jester lately. Yeah, yeah, I know that was very creative. Thanks.

  • Felix Hernandez (R) is 2-1; 3.98 ERA; 1.08 WHIP; +1.6 Units on the road.
  • Chris Young (R) is 2-1; 0.52 ERA; 0.99 WHIP; +0.3 Units at home.

    Prediction: Padres -135.
    .5 Units.
    Incorrect; -$70




    Boston Red Sox (40-21) at Arizona Diamondbacks (36-27).
    Line: Red Sox -120; Diamondbacks +110.


    Going with the Red Sox again, as Bob Melvin is in another situation where just doesn't succeed often. Red Sox get the sweep behind Dice-K.

  • Daisuke Matsuzaka (R) is 4-2; 3.55 ERA; 1.29 WHIP; +0.9 Units on the road.
  • Randy Johnson (L) is 0-2; 5.40 ERA; 1.37 WHIP; -1.7 Units at home.

    Prediction: Red Sox -120.
    1 Unit.
    Incorrect; -$120




    Milwaukee Brewers (33-29) at Texas Rangers (23-39).
    Line: Brewers -110; Rangers +100.


    How bad has Dave Bush been this season? I'm ashamed to admit that I picked him in my fantasy baseball draft, and I kept him on my roster for a while, believing he'd turn it around. He hasn't. Vicente Padilla looks more appealing at this point. It's hard to believe Texas can sweep the Brew Crew tonight.

  • Dave Bush (R) is 1-2; 7.09 ERA; 1.69 WHIP; -3.1 Units on the road.
  • Vicente Padilla (R) is 2-3; 3.94 ERA; 1.16 WHIP; -0.6 Units at home.

    Prediction: Rangers +100.
    2 Units.
    Incorrect; -$200



    Saturday, June 9, 2007 (4-1, +$305)



    Chicago Cubs (27-32) at Atlanta Braves (33-29).
    Line: Cubs +135; Braves -150.


    Am I dumb enough to bet Atlanta again? Why yes, yes I am. The Braves are 16-8 as dogs or on the run line under Bobby Cox following a loss of seven or more runs. Only .5 Units, as the Braves are free falling, while the Cubs are soaring.

  • Jason Marquis (R) is 3-2; 3.08 ERA; 1.16 WHIP; +2.5 Units on the road.
  • Tim Hudson (R) is 3-3; 3.33 ERA; 1.19 WHIP; -1.5 Units at home.

    Prediction: Braves -150.
    .5 Units.
    Correct; +$100




    Tampa Bay Devil Rays (26-32) at Florida Marlins (30-31).
    5th Inning Line: Devil Rays +105; Marlins -115. Total: 8 (-110/-110).


    I've compiled some stats on the Devil Rays that will hopefully allow us to win some money. They often surrender tons of runs, so I wondered how the team fares after giving up nine or more. Well, they're actually 6-3 as road dogs, while hitting five overs, two unders and two total pushes. I'm going with the fifth-inning line here because I don't feel like dealing with their horrid bullpen. How do you have an 8-1 lead and lose 14-8? Hilarious.

  • James Shields (R) is 2-0; 2.61 ERA; 0.90 WHIP; +0.7 Units on the road.
  • Dontrelle Willis (L) is 2-2; 6.32 ERA; 1.68 WHIP; +3.2 Units at home.

    Prediction: Devil Rays +105 (5th Inning Line) - 1 Unit.
    Over 8 -110 - .5 Units.
    Correct; +$105
    Correct; +$50




    Boston Red Sox (39-21) at Arizona Diamondbacks (36-26).
    Line: Red Sox -120; Diamondbacks +110.


    Last night, I discussed how surprised I was that Ozzie Guillen and his super-human baseball-managing skills has trouble coming back from a loss of seven or more. Guillen is now 3-10 at home following such a defeat. But what about Bob Melvin? Arizona's manager is just 5-13 in those situations.

  • Julian Tavarez (R) is 2-2; 5.06 ERA; 1.45 WHIP; +3.4 Units on the road.
  • Micah Owings (R) is 2-1; 3.06 ERA; 1.24 WHIP; -1.5 Units at home.

    Prediction: Red Sox -120.
    2 Units.
    Correct; +$200




    Seattle Mariners (30-26) at Seattle Mariners (36-23).
    Line: Mariners +135; Padres -1.5 +140.


    I feel it is my duty as a baseball fan and an American citizen to bet against Jeff Weaver.

  • Jeff Weaver (R) is 0-4; 12.64 ERA; 2.43 WHIP; -4 Units on the road.
  • David Wells (L) is 1-0; 2.67 ERA; 1.01 WHIP; -1.2 Units at home.

    Prediction: Padres -1.5 +140.
    1 Unit.
    Incorrect; -$100



    Friday, June 8, 2007 (3-4, +$300)



    New York Mets (35-23) at Detroit Tigers (34-25).
    Line: Mets +110; Tigers -120.


    I'm never betting on Toronto ever again. The Blue Jays inexplicably scored a meager three runs against Edwin Jackson. Meanwhile, Vernon Davis was seen laughing in the outfield. What a bum. He's getting paid millions of bucks for a .260 average and five home runs. Without a doubt the most overrated player in Major League Baseball.

    As for this contest, I'll take a hot AL squad over a slumping NL team any day.

  • Jorge Sosa (R) is 2-1; 5.06 ERA; 1.31 WHIP; +1.1 Units on the road.
  • Chad Durbin (R) is 1-0; 5.93 ERA; 1.83 WHIP; +0.9 Units at home.

    Prediction: Tigers -120.
    .5 Units.
    Incorrect; -$60




    Chicago Cubs (26-32) at Atlanta Braves (33-28).
    Line: Cubs -115; Braves +105.


    Why in the world are the surging Cubs only -115 over the ice-cold Braves with a huge pitching edge? Seriously, just look at Lance Cormier's numbers. The books appear to know something the public doesn't, but what could that be? How about the fact that Atlanta is 12-5 at home against the run line after losing by one score to the same opponent?

  • Sean Marshall (L) is 0-1; 2.57 ERA; 0.86 WHIP; -1 Units on the road.
  • Lance Cormier (R) is 0-1; 18.00 ERA; 2.50 WHIP; -1 Units on the road (no home starts).

    Prediction: Braves +105.
    1 Unit.
    Incorrect; -$100




    Los Angeles Angels (38-23) at St. Louis Cardinals (26-31).
    Line: Angels -1.5 +115; Cardinals +120.


    The Cardinals have been able to pad their record against Colorado, Cincinnati and Houston. I have a feeling the Angels might be a bit better than those three crapola teams.

  • Bartolo Colon (R) is 3-1; 6.85 ERA; 1.84 WHIP; +2.1 Units on the road.
  • Kip Wells (R) is 1-4; 6.21 ERA; 1.52 WHIP; -4.2 Units at home.

    Prediction: Angels -1.5 +115.
    2 Units.
    Correct; +$230




    Houston Astros (24-35) at Chicago White Sox (26-30).
    Line: Astros +105; White Sox -115.


    The White Sox lost 10-3 to the Yankees last night, so that got me thinking, how does such an excellent manager like Ozzie Guillen come back from defeats of seven runs or more? After doing some research, I found out Guillen is 3-9 at home in those situations. Ozzie? 3-9? How is that possible?

    Upgraded to 2 Units at 3:45 p.m.

  • Chris Sampson (R) is 2-4; 4.41 ERA; 1.38 WHIP; -1.4 Units on the road.
  • John Danks (L) is 2-2; 3.70 ERA; 1.36 WHIP; +0.4 Units at home.

    Prediction: Astros +105.
    2 Units.
    Correct; +$210




    Milwaukee Brewers (33-27) at Texas Rangers (21-39).
    Line: Brewers -135; Texas +125.


    Like the White Sox, Texas suffered a 7-run loss yesterday. Manager Ron Washington, only in his first year, is 1-2 at home following big defeats. Something tells me he could be 1-8 in that situation by the time this season is over. The Rangers are just a miserable squad.

  • Chris Capuano (L) is 2-2; 4.12 ERA; 1.53 WHIP; +0.4 Units on the road.
  • Robinson Tejeda (R) is 1-3; 5.53 ERA; 1.52 WHIP; -1.8 Units at home.

    Prediction: Brewers -135.
    .5 Units.
    Incorrect; -$70




    Boston Red Sox (38-21) at Arizona Diamondbacks (36-25).
    Line: Red Sox -1.5 -105; Diamondbacks +145.


    Too bad we won't get to see Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling pitch against each other in this series. Instead, we have Josh Beckett and... Doug... Davis...? Arizona is coming off a rare series victory against San Francisco. The team has suffered immediately in those situations under Bob Melvin.

  • Josh Beckett (R) is 3-0; 1.80 ERA; 1.00 WHIP; +3 Units on the road.
  • Doug Davis (L) is 2-1; 3.19 ERA; 1.52 WHIP; +3 Units at home.

    Prediction: Red Sox -1.5 -105.
    2 Units.
    Correct; +$200




    Toronto Blue Jays (28-31) at Los Angeles Dodgers (34-26).
    Line: Blue Jays +180; Dodgers -1.5 +100.


    As I mentioned before, Toronto is such a heartless team that just doesn't care at all. I know I'm going NL over AL here, but I don't think the Blue Jays count.

  • Dustin McGowan (R) is 0-2; 7.47 ERA; 1.78 WHIP; -3 Units on the road.
  • Brad Penny (R) is 3-0; 1.43 ERA; 1.17 WHIP; +3.4 Units at home.

    Prediction: Dodgers -1.5 +100.
    1 Unit.
    Incorrect; -$100


    $10 Shield Bet to win $200
    (Parlay all 1- and 2-Unit picks against yourself just in case of a disastrous day)
    Incorrect; -$10



    Thursday, June 7, 2007 (2-4, -$275)



    Kansas City Royals (22-38) at Cleveland Indians (35-22).
    Line: Royals +1.5 +115; Indians -265.


    If you know what happened in some of the games I picked last night, I thank you for your sympathy. I had the Mariners as a 2-Unit play. Up 4-0 in the fifth inning, Seattle somehow gives up a five spot, eventually losing 9-5. Meanwhile, the Rockies, ahead 8-6 in the top of the ninth, surrendered another "meaningless" home run. Run line shattered. Two bad beats yesterday to go along with all of the bad breaks I had the past few days: The Mark Teixeira home run, the Dodgers' blown 5-0 lead in the seventh, all the one-run victories on Friday and Sunday, etc.

    Can I please get a break here? Is that too much to ask? Nothing has gone our way and we're still treading water. Let's hope we have better luck today.

    I like getting a run with the Royals. The Indians, for some reason, have severe problems with them. Also, after losing by one score to the same opponent, Cleveland is 6-13 on the run line at home under Eric Wedge.

  • Odalis Perez (L) is 2-2; 5.04 ERA; 1.42 WHIP; +1.4 Units on the road.
  • Fausto Carmona (R) is 2-1; 3.90 ERA; 1.19 WHIP; +2.2 Units at home.

    Prediction: Royals +1.5 +115.
    .5 Units.
    Incorrect; -$50




    Tampa Bay Devil Rays (25-32) at Toronto Blue Jays (28-30).
    Line: Devil Rays +200; Blue Jays -2.5 +140.


    Happy Edwin Jackson Day! As I said before, this is one of my favorite holidays. Jackson's one of the worst pitchers in the history of baseball, so you can make tons of cash betting against him. In fact, if you bet $500 against him in each of his starts, you'd be up a cool $4,200. All but one of his road starts has been decided by four runs or more. I just wish they had a -3.5 run line.

  • Edwin Jackson (R) is 0-3; 6.53 ERA; 1.65 WHIP; -4 Units on the road.
  • A.J. Burnett (R) is 3-1; 2.57 ERA; 1.03 WHIP; +0.1 Units at home.

    Prediction: Blue Jays -2.5 +140.
    2 Units.
    Incorrect; -$200




    Pittsburgh Pirates (25-34) at Washington Nationals (24-35).
    Line: Pirates -140; Nationals +130.


    I went with the Nats last night because they were coming off a one-run loss to the same opponent. Now, Pittsburgh's in that situation. Am I going with the Pirates? No - they're 3-9 in that role on the road under Jim Tracy. By the way, can anyone believe the Nats are 6-0 with Matt Chico at home. Matt Chico!

  • Ian Snell (R) is 1-2; 3.15 ERA; 1.13 WHIP; +1.3 Units on the road.
  • Matt Chico (L) is 3-0; 4.80 ERA; 1.63 WHIP; +9.7 Units at home.

    Prediction: Nationals +130.
    1 Unit.
    Incorrect; -$100




    Houston Astros (24-34) at Colorado Rockies (28-31).
    Line: Astros -140; Rockies +130.


    I'm getting tired of betting on these stupid Rockies. Although they were up 8-6 in the ninth inning, I knew a solo home run was coming. When it actually happened, I said aloud, "Yeah, that seems about right."

  • Roy Oswalt (R) is 2-3; 5.91 ERA; 1.63 WHIP; -1.9 Units on the road.
  • Josh Fogg (R) is 0-3; 6.23 ERA; 1.67 WHIP; -3.2 Units at home.

    Prediction: Rockies +130.
    .5 Units.
    Correct; +$65




    Chicago Cubs (25-32) at Atlanta Braves (33-27).
    Line: Cubs +105; Braves -115.


    The Braves are fading away, and the Cubs actually win as underdogs. Atlanta has lost three of four to Florida, which doesn't bode well in this game. Since 2002, the Braves are 0-4 as a home favorite following a losing series against the Marlins.

  • Rich Hill (L) is 2-3; 3.40 ERA; 1.02 WHIP; -3.4 Units on the road.
  • Chuck James (L) is 1-2; 3.26 ERA; 1.76 WHIP; -0.2 Units at home.

    Prediction: Cubs +105.
    2 Units.
    Correct; +$210




    Cincinnati Reds (22-38) at St. Louis Cardinals (26-30).
    Line: Reds +140; Cardinals -1.5 +140.


    Shhh... Don't tell anyone, but the Cardinals have won six of seven, and are now only three games behind Milwaukee in the loss column. I'm going to keep riding them. The Reds are garbage.

  • Kyle Lohse (R) is 1-5; 6.10 ERA; 1.54 WHIP; -4.5 Units on the road.
  • Adam Wainwright (R) is 3-3; 4.41 ERA; 1.62 WHIP; -1.4 Units at home.

    Prediction: Cardinals -1.5 +140.
    2 Units.
    Incorrect; -$200



    Wednesday, June 6, 2007 (2-3,