Here's my analysis on the Redskins/Giants game...all of my picks are free at www.blackboxsports.net ... I might post my Denver play later as well, but it's up on the site if you're interested. Good luck to all the gamblohrs in here!
The Giants have put up quite a few points this season, but have had a relatively easy schedule thus far, at least in terms of defenses they’ve played. In fact, the highest ranked defense they’ve played recently was the Patriots (7th), who held them to 26 pts. That said, the Redskins don’t qualify as having a good, or even average defense themselves, as they currently rank 31st in our Power Rankings, with a pitiful power rating of 20 (out of a 100). They can’t stop the run at all, allowing 4.8 YPC this season (t-2nd last), and also have a hard time against the pass, allowing 7.7 YPA this season. They also can’t get to the QB, and are allowing a 109 QBR and a whopping 6.4 YPP (yards per play) over the last 6 weeks….they’re just pitiful. While the Giants probably won’t be able to take advantage on the ground, Eli and company will certainly take advantage aerially.
On the other side, the Redskins do have some hope. The Giants rank in the middle of the pack at stopping the run, which will be important in this game as the Redskins try to control the clock with Matt Jones and Alfred Morris. If they can keep Cousins in manageable down and distances, I like their chances of putting up a ton of points themselves. The Giants D, despite being ranked 23rd in our Power Rankings, are allowing 6.6 YPP over the last 6 weeks (worse than the Redskins) and, despite JPP playing a lot better than expected off an amputated finger, still struggle to get any pressure on the QB (I’m not buying the Patriots game – Brady has been under duress all season).
This game is shaping up to be a back and forth affair, so I like taking the home team with the free FG. I also like the situational angles here, as the Redskins are coming off a blow-out defeat to the Panthers, while the Giants are coming off a very tight loss to the undefeated Pats, and are also off a bye, which explains why this spread is moving in the direction of the Giants. The whole point of the Model is to cut thru all the noise, public bias, media hype and other crap that can move a line, so I’m not surprised it’s saying the Redskins are undervalued right now. The standard method for recommending units likes the Skins for 2 units (see above in the Statistical Model section), and so does the new method. I’m sticking with 2 units on the Redskins.
LINE MOVEMENT: This line has dropped to 2.5, indicating the professional bettors are all over the Redskins. I still like the skins for 2 units, even at 2.5, but I'm going to hold out and see if 3 pops back up again. We're not risking much by doing this, since the worst case scenario is the line moves down to 2, which isn't a big deal.
OVER-UNDER: I don't normally play over-unders, but for whatever reason I'm trying it this week for a few games. This total doesn't make sense to me - 47? Both teams can put up 30+, and a 28-24 final would actually be on the low side to me. I'm going with 1 unit on the Over.
FINAL BET: This line has dropped to +2..I'm locking this in for 2 units.
INJURY UPDATES: I don't normally post all the injuries, but considering a lot of people are scared to take the Redskins, I decided to give an update. The Giants have 2 key injuries on their Offensive Line - G Justin Pugh and C Weston Richburg (who is having a stellar season). Center is so important, so the latter is really going to hurt.
It was an interesting season for Philadelphia in 2008, but what else is new? Donovan McNabb was benched and controversy ensued, but when Andy Reid?s back is against the wall he seems to deliver - a blow to the wall (I feel sorry for the wall).
The Eagles made the NFC Championship against all odds, and they are looking to regain the NFC East crown, which will not be easy. Washington added arguably the best defensive player in the NFL in Albert Haynesworth. The Giants made a few big upgrades in free agency. The Dallas Cowboys traded away T.O. (yay for NFC East defensive backfields). Will the 2009 NFL Draft catapult the Eagles as NFC East favorites?
Let?s get to their Draft range in the first round with their picks at Nos. 21 and 28:
Left tackle: The Eagles do not have a capable left tackle on the roster. Michael Oher, Eben Britton and William Beatty will all get heavy consideration in the first round. I personally think Oher and Beatty are better left tackles than Britton because they are more athletic, but I am not the Eagles scouting department either.
Brandon Pettigrew: Can someone logically explain why on Earth the Eagles made a good decision in franchising L.J. Smith? Are you kidding me? Pettigrew is a complete tight end who blocks, runs sharp routes, and has soft hands. He would be a huge threat in this offense.
Kenny Britt/Jeremy Maclin: I feel like these are the only two receivers the Eagles will seriously consider in the first round. Maclin is more of a vertical threat (like DeSean Jackson), but Britt is more of a possession receiver and an end-zone threat.
Chris Wells: Wells would be the ultimate compliment to Brian Westbrook. I am not buying these comments from Tom Heckert in terms of ruling out a prospect. If a team rules out a prospect, I will tend to think the opposite and feel they are smoke screening to ensure their player falls to their pick.
After the first round, several tight ends could make an impact immediately if Philly opts not for Pettigrew in the first. Jared Cook, Cornelius Ingram and Travis Beckum are very enticing options in the second or third rounds. They would all be great vertical threats for Donovan McNabb.
Brian Robiskie and Hakeem Nicks would be perfect possession receivers to add in the second round if they don?t draft Britt or Maclin in the first. Robiskie has more size, but Nicks has better separation ability. Both have two of the softest pairs of hands in the 2009 NFL Draft.
If the Eagles opt not to select Chris Wells in the first round, then they must add a running back later on in the draft. Shonn Greene, Andre Brown and Rashad Jennings could be had in the third round. As late-round picks for this offense, I like Arian Foster, Chris Ogbonnaya and Gartrell Johnson because of the power they bring to the table at tailback.
The Eagles must get this draft right and emphasize need. Adding players like Trevor Laws and Kevin Kolb in the past with other needs has not paid off dividends yet at this point. With two first-rounders, Philly will keep things interesting, as usual.