THURSDAY, JAN. 22:
Even though a possible 2-0 on Championship Sunday was ruined by Troy Polamalu's Jerk Store-worthy pick-six late in the fourth quarter, allowing Pittsburgh to cover the 6-point spread, I'm pretty content with the results. I hit my five-unit play on the Cardinals. If I hadn't used my Pick of the Month on Baltimore the week before, I would have tagged the Cardinals +3.5 with eight units. The Eagles lived up to their billing as perennial chokers when pressured to win. I'd feel sorry for their fans if the Phillies hadn't just won the World Series.
As for Vegas, they made out somewhat well on Sunday. There wasn't really any lop-sided action on either game, but about 60 percent of the money was on Baltimore, so the books were happy to see Polamalu's hair flapping in the wind as he crossed the goal line. Also, Arizona winning by a touchdown broke up a lot of teasers on the Eagles.
I really like a side in this game. But since this contest is 10 days away, I'm going to give you one segment at a time. I'll have my pick posted on Tuesday or Wednesday. As for tomorrow, get ready for some Emmitt quotes!
FRIDAY, JAN. 23:
As promised, here are more quotes to be featured in the upcoming Emmitt Anthology: Volume 2. Here's a link to the original Emmitt Anthology.
1. "Every time he go inside he try to bounce outside too quickly." (Commentary: The sad thing here is that I've read/heard so much Emmittese over the past 18 months that it took me about a minute to realize this sentence was grammatically incorrect.)
2. "Defensively, they were in the backfield most of the time, he can never really get going, the Saints was geared up for this tonight." (Commentary: When in doubt, don't think; just speak... even if you end up combining three sentences that don't have anything to do with each other.)
3. "Some of those things are not Drew Brees's's' fault." (Commentary: I'll buy that. I was thinking it was Drew Brees' fault, but definitely not Drew Brees's's'.)
If you're looking for more Emmitt and some general NFL spoofs, clink on the link.
Tomorrow, I'll talk about Pittsburgh's offense versus Arizona's defense.
SATURDAY, JAN. 24:
Instead of talking about Pittsburgh's offense, I'd like to discuss something that's really bothering me. Being from Philadelphia, I've been approached by countless Eagles fans this week, asking me who to blame for the "inexplicable" loss to Arizona.
Here's my answer: No one. Yes, the defense played poorly, and Donovan McNabb was wildly inaccurate on most of his throws. But there's a reason why this happened, and it's because the Cardinals are a great team.
Most people refuse to believe that, including ignorant doubters who proclaimed that Arizona had no chance of beating the Eagles. But the week before, the Cardinals went into Carolina, where the Panthers were 8-0 at home. They completely debacled Carolina, dominating on both sides of the ball. Sure, Jake Delhomme threw the game for undisclosed reasons (either a kidnapped son or front-row tickets at the Super Bowl), but Arizona sliced and diced Carolina's once-impressive defense as well.
Oh, and by the way, don't dismiss the Cardinals' Round 1 victory over a red-hot Atlanta squad. No one thought they'd win that game either, as most of the betting action was on the Falcons.
As I said, Arizona is a great team that simply let up at the end of the season (starting with the first Philadelphia game) because it won the division in a landslide. Anyone who thinks the Cardinals don't have a shot to win this game should probably stay away from betting the Super Bowl because they're absolutely clueless as to what's going on. I'm referring to a few people who rolled their eyes at me when I told them the Cardinals had a good shot to win this game. You know who you are. Actually... you're probably not even reading this, and I'm just wasting my time and inching toward being diagnosed with Carpal Tunnel. I guess you can say that I'm debacling myself for no apparent reason.
Does this mean Pittsburgh can't win or cover the touchdown? Absolutely not. The Steelers are a great team as well. But the whole point of this rant is that I find it unbelievable that the Cardinals aren't getting any respect at all.
And you know what? They're probably loving this. They've been doubted by everyone three times in the playoffs. Once more should do the trick.
I'll talk about Pittsburgh's offense tomorrow, Arizona's offense the next day and then post my pick. For now, I'll say that I love a side in this game for three or four reasons, but I have no idea how many units I'm going to bet.
SUNDAY, JAN. 25:
No surprise that everyone covering the Senior Bowl on the NFL Network picked the Steelers. Instead of talking about Pittsburgh's offense, let's keep discussing how much the Cardinals are disrespected. Just kidding... Let's move on before I start having nosebleeds and forgetting my mother's maiden name.
I can go on and on about Kurt Warner, Larry Fitzgerald and Edgerrin James' inexplicable resurgence, but Arizona's defense has been a major reason why the Cardinals are making their first Super Bowl appearance in franchise history.
In three postseason games, the Cardinals have recorded eight sacks. They also held Michael Turner to 42 rushing yards on 18 carries; DeAngelo Williams to 63 yards on 12 attempts; and Brian Westbrook to 45 yards on 12 rushes. Combined, that's 150 yards on 42 totes, which is just 3.6 yards per carry. Pretty impressive.
The Steelers ran all over the Chargers in the divisional round, but couldn't produce anything on the ground in the AFC Championship. Willie Parker couldn't even muster two yards a pop (24 rush, 47 yards).
Parker will have more success against Arizona, but not much more. The Cardinals really have vastly improved on the defensive side of the ball.
Now that we've established that Arizona's defense is at least formidable, I think we can all agree that the weakest unit in this game is Pittsburgh's offensive line. The Steelers surrendered one sack against San Diego, but saw that total rise to four versus Baltimore.
As mentioned, the Cardinals have gotten to the quarterback this postseason, so there's no reason to believe that Ben Roethlisberger will be pressured, sacked and forced into some poor throws. Roethlisberger got away with a few desperate heaves against Baltimore - see that long Santonio Holmes touchdown - but Arizona's opportunistic secondary will able to turn some of those careless tosses into turnovers. Remember, the Ravens secondary was really depleted. Arizona's Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is really coming into his own, while Adrian Wilson is one of the top safeties in the league.
That said, I expect Pittsburgh to score a fair amount in this contest. Roethlisberger is one of the elite quarterbacks in the NFL, and he has plenty of talented weapons to work with.
Tomorrow, I'll delve into Arizona's offense versus the Steelers defense.
MONDAY, JAN. 26:
When I tell people that I believe that Arizona has a good shot of winning this game, I get asked one of three things:
1) "Are you OK? Do you need to sit down? Should I call 911?"
2) "So, uhh... can I, uhh... get in on what you're having? How much does it cost? Who's your dealer?"
3) "Oh yeah, and how are the Cardinals supposed to score on that great Pittsburgh D?"
So, aren't the No. 3 people right? Doesn't defense win championships? Or as Emmitt would say, "Doesn't defense wins championships?"
To that, I ask, "Didn't you ask me the same thing right before the Eagles game?"
Seriously, Philadelphia's stop unit was playing incredibly. Before the NFC Championship, Jim Johnson's bunch hadn't allowed 14 points in a single game since Thanksgiving! The defense - and not Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook, or Andy Reid and his silly fake beard - was carrying the team.
Well, to quote Emmitt again, "The Eagles defense... got... DEBACLED!" Save for the third quarter, the Cardinals moved the chains with extreme ease all afternoon.
Larry Fitzgerald is a beast, and along with Anquan Boldin, who is also a monster, the two receivers keep defenders off the line of scrimmage, and away from Kurt Warner and Edgerrin James. With Fitzgerald and Boldin stretching the field, Warner has been sacked just three times all postseason. The Eagles only got to him twice, and they were third in the league in sacks this year. They had 48 sacks on the season, just three shy of what Pittsburgh mustered.
With Warner having a clean pocket, the sure-fire Hall of Fame quarterback hasn't fumbled once during the Doggone Playoff. In fact, he has just two fumbles since Week 12. Meanwhile, James has been given more running room than ever. He rushed for 73 yards on just 16 carries against the Eagles, who had a top-five rush defense this season.
And then there's the question of how you stop Fitzgerald. You can't double- and triple-team him all game because Boldin is across the field. And don't forget about the dangerous Steve Breaston as a downfield target. The Cardinals have way too many weapons for any defense. That's why they've averaged 31.7 points per game these past three weeks.
Tomorrow, I'll have my pick. I have three or four reasons why I love a particular side in this contest.
TUESDAY, JAN. 27:
I guess I haven't exactly made it a secret that I like the Cardinals. Well, I've fooled you all! I really love the... uhh... yeah, OK, I love the Cardinals here.
As I mentioned earlier, I have a few reasons why I believe that taking the points is a lucrative proposition. Let's go over them.
1. COACHING EDGE: Ken Whisenhunt and Russ Grimm coached the Steelers two years ago. Why is this important? Coaches who go against their former team cover at an astonishing rate. Believe me, it's true. You can go back and look it up if you want, but this is something I've used the past two years.
Whisenhunt and Grimm know Pittsburgh's personnel and schemes in and out. They can game plan for the Steelers better than Pittsburgh can get ready for Arizona. To the Steelers, the Cardinals are an unknown NFC West team. To the Cardinals, the Steelers are a known quantity because Whisenhunt and Grimm are so familiar with them.
If you're not buying this, go back to late September 2007. I bet five units on Arizona over Pittsburgh for the same exact reason. The Cardinals won outright at 6-point underdogs - and that was before Kurt Warner was the starter!
2. US AGAINST THE WORLD: The Cardinals have been playing with fire ever since the Patriots debacled them at Gillette Stadium, 47-7. Talking heads on TV called them soft. Casual fans wrote them off, claiming they were just there because the NFC West sucked. Bettors went against them three weeks in a row and lost.
No one believed Arizona could beat the Falcons, yet they won, 30-24. "Oh, but they were playing a rookie quarterback in the playoffs," people said.
No one believed Arizona could go into Carolina and beat the Panthers, yet they won in a blowout, 33-13. "Oh, but Jake Delhomme threw the game because some bookies kidnapped his son," I theorized.
No one believed Arizona would beat the red-hot Eagles, yet they dominated for three quarters and won, 32-25. "Oh, but that was yet another Andy Reid-Donovan McNabb choke job," some people probably said.
No one believes Arizona can beat the Steelers. I made this clear earlier. People actually look at me funny when I say that the Cardinals have a really good shot here. Hey, I got the same response last year when I said the Giants could very easily knock off the Patriots.
The point is, the Cardinals have the psychological edge here. No one is giving them a chance. That'll just feed the fire they've had since the playoffs began. The Steelers, meanwhile, have all the pressure on them. How can they possibly lose to the stinkin' Cardinals? They're favored by a touchdown, for crying out loud!
3. SUPER BOWL IN PITTSBURGH: Yeah, the Super Bowl is in Tampa Bay, but let's call that area "Pittsburgh South." There aren't going to be any Cardinals fans at this game. Maybe John McCain will show up. That's about it. Steeler fans travel better than anyone else. They're going to flood the New Sombrero and storm the pirate ship.
Advantage Pittsburgh, right? Not necessarily. If anything, I believe this will motivate the Cardinals even more. This feeds into the "Us Against the World" theme. I just wanted to isolate this element because it's a bit different.
4. PITTSBURGH OVERRATED: Whoa, don't send hate mail just yet, Steeler fans. I think Pittsburgh is a great team. If they win this game by double digits, I wouldn't be surprised one bit.
At the same time, I don't think the Steelers deserve to be touchdown favorites over the Cardinals. Yes, they covered both of their postseason games, but they probably shouldn't have. Think about it. A stupid Daren Stone penalty puts Baltimore in bad field position, leading to a Troy Polamalu pick-six that covers the contest. Meanwhile, the Chargers didn't even touch the ball in the third quarter because of a fluke tipped interception and a ball that unfortunately bounced off of Eric Weddle's head on a punt. The San Diego score should have been a lot closer.
The Steelers always seem to get lucky bounces, and I've noted so for most of the season. At the end of their write-ups, I usually type, "The Steelers will find some way to win. They always do." Well, winning and covering are two different things.
TO SUMMARIZE: I like the Cardinals. Not only am I taking the points, I'm going with them to pull out the straight-up victory for the four reasons I listed above.
In all honesty, I think both sides have an equal shot to win this contest. This game will be close, and it's going down to the wire. But the Whisenhunt-Grimm factor is stronger than anything else I've written in this 2,500-word thesis.
One last thing: I feel as though going with the points is a safe bet because since Tampa Bay's debaclation over Oakland (Jon Gruden was familiar with the Raiders - don't forget that) most of the Super Bowls have been close:
Giants 17, Patriots 14
Colts 29, Bears 17 (pick-six at the end made this margin 12)
Steelers 21, Seahawks 10 (would have been close if it weren't for the crooked officials)
Patriots 24, Eagles 21 (and some McNabb puke on the side)
Patriots 32, Panthers 29
There you go. As you can see, the only way the Steelers cover is if the officials have money on them again. Paging Walt Coleman!
But all kidding aside, either team can win what should be a great matchup. I'm taking the Cardinals at six units. Six because if I lose, I'll still have a surplus of 30 units on the year. But this is my February NFL Pick of the Month.
Tomorrow, I'll go over some of the props I like in this game.
WEDNESDAY, JAN. 28:
Before I get into the props, I have to mention that I'm really excited about Lost tonight. If you're as excited about Lost as I am, you have to check out the Jay and Jack Lost Podcast, unquestionably the best Lost podcast on the Web. And no, they're not paying me, but maybe they should.
I'm not a big fan of prop betting, but I looked through them all and found a few I liked:
1. Will Larry Fitzgerald score at least 1 TD? Yes -115: Larry Fitzgerald has five touchdowns in the playoffs. He has been to the end zone in his last five games, and in seven of his previous eight contests. Not even Pittsburgh's defense will keep him from scoring.
2. Willie Parker - Total rushing yards Under 79.5 -105: As mentioned above, the Cardinals have done a great job against the run in the postseason. There's always a chance Parker breaks one, but Arizona hasn't allowed a long run in the playoffs. I'll take my chances with the Under.
3. Hines Ward - Who will catch a pass first? Hines Ward +150 over Larry Fitzgerald: I think Hines Ward will play. Assuming he does, this is great value because it's almost like betting the coin toss. Ward is Ben Roethlisberger's go-to guy. If the Steelers get the ball first, there is a very good chance Ward catches a pass.
4. Alternate Point Spread - Cardinals +3.5 +145: If you think this is going to be a close game, the positive juice on this prop has to be attractive.
Those are the props I like. I've listed some funny Super Bowl Props in the forum. It's good to know that someone else out there resorts to fat jokes and Matt Millen bashing in addition to yours truly.
SATURDAY, JAN. 31:
There's a very interesting prop I want to talk about that you can find on Bodog. I made fun of it on the forums, but it looks very lucrative to me:
Will Matt Millen pick the correct team to win Super Bowl XLIII during the Pre Game Show? Yes -225; No +185.
Knowing Millen, he won't give out a selection and advise both teams to draft receivers. But let's say he picks the Steelers. We're not getting a very good price on the Cardinals because the moneyline is +200. Still, it's pretty negligible considering what happens if he picks an upset.
If Millen goes with the Cardinals and you choose No +185, you're getting the Steelers for +185 on the moneyline! That makes for a great hedging opportunity.
Follow this one closely. Bet No on Millen, and if he picks Arizona to win, take out the same amount on the the Cardinals moneyline. You'll be guaranteed to make at least 0.85 Units. It's just a shame Bodog is limiting this wager to just $50.
Tomorrow, I'll go over this game and discuss if I feel any different about it.
SUNDAY, FEB. 1:
OK, on the eve of the Super Bowl, I reserve the right to change my Super Bowl pick. Why? Because I said so.
As it turns out, I'm going with the Pittsb... I mean Arizona Cardinals. Had you fooled there for a second.
I've had about a dozen e-mailers this week telling me that I have the wrong side. To all of them, I said the same thing to the dozen people who thought choosing Philadelphia over Arizona was the right move - this contest can go either way, but the Cardinals have the most dominant edge of either squad. That would be Ken Whisenhunt and Russ Grimm being more familiar with the Steelers' scheme than Pittsburgh is with Arizona's.
I've done very well with my 4-plus unit selections this year. That's because almost every single one of them had a double-star psychological edge. That's the strongest type of advantage an NFL team can have over another. One such strong psychological edge is a coach going against his former team of the past two seasons. It's worked wonders for me the past two years, and there is no way I'm going to abandon it now.
I hope you have fun watching the Super Bowl! I'll be running my third-annual Live Super Bowl Blog with live updates during the game, so check it out. Also, you can discuss the Super Bowl in the Live In-Game Thread.
The Psychology. Edge: Cardinals.
In addition to the Cardinals having the "Us Against the World" mojo going for them, Ken Whisenhunt and Russ Grimm coached the Steelers two years ago.
The Vegas. Edge: None.
Action has leveled out, so the oddsmakers were able to move the line up to -7.
Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 51% (460,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Steelers.
Cardinals are 2-4 ATS on the East Coast in 2008.
Ben Roethlisberger is 59-21 as a starter (48-31 ATS).
Ben Roethlisberger is 7-2 ATS in the playoffs (4-1 as a favorite).
Opening Line: Steelers -6.5.
Opening Total: 47.
Weather: Partly cloudy, 59 degrees. Light wind.
Super Bowl XLIII NFL Pick: Cardinals 31, Steelers 30 Cardinals +7 (6 Units - February NFL Pick of the Month) -- Correct; +$600 Over 46.5 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200 Steelers 27, Cardinals 23
Printable version of Super Bowl XLIII NFL Pick to be posted a few days before the game.
Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted
whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.
Live Dog: Cardinals +200 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$100
Will Larry Fitzgerald score at least 1 TD? Yes -115 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
Willie Parker - Total rushing yards: Under 79.5 -105 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
Hines Ward - Who will catch a pass first? Hines Ward +150 over Larry Fitzgerald (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$150
Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.
Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 18, 2016): 2-2 (+$445)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 18, 2016): 2-0 (+$500)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 18, 2016): 0-0 ($0)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 18, 2016): 0-4 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 18, 2016): $0
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-124-10, 53.7% (+$1,645) 2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-34-3, 55.3% (+$675) 2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-20-5, 50.0% (-$975) 2016 Season Over-Under: 119-138-1, 46.3% (+$95) 2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$795
1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%) 2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%) 2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%) 2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%) 2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%) 2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%) 2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%) 2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%) 2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$2,550) 2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$2,620) 2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$3,370) 2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$6,080) 2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,925) 2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$5,760) 2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,580) 2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885) 2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$2,360)
2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%) 2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%) 2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%) 2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%) 2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%) 2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110) 2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510) 2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260) 2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180) 2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715) 2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130) 2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890) 2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%) 2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%) 2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%) 2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%) 2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%) 2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420) 2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055) 2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330) 2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790) 2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260) 2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650) 2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970) 2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%) 2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%) 2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%) 2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%) 2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%) 2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%) 2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900) 2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860) 2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195) 2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5) 2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135) 2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30) 2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340) 2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035 2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775 2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865 2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200 2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590 2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685 2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245 2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%) 2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400) 2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720) 2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640) 2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810) 2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870) 2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560) 2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900) 2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350) 2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,436-2,240-141, 52.1% (+$9,795) Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 785-702-37 (52.8%) Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 328-290-18 (53.1%) Career Over-Under: 1,941-1,901-54 (50.4%) Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-15-1 (61.1%) Career NFL Picks of the Month: 36-22 (62.1%)
My Team-by-Team ATS Record This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not
displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.
Davis is doing a very good job, for a young first year guy. The likelihood the Steelers use their 1st on Safety, with David & Mitchell locked-in as #1 & 2, is virtually zero. And, the Steelers took Leveon Bell in the 2nd Round & they aren't lookin' for a replacement anytime soon. It seems your predictions are driven more by desire to see certain guys fall to certain teams, rather than desire to actually get the predictions right. Realistically, apart from early picks at OLB or ILB, everything else would be a Depth-at-Position pick.