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Thread: 49ers vs falcons

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    49ers vs falcons

    This is walters top pick this week with the niners at +7... Im a die hard niiners fan and I have trouble seeing them cover this on the road with a brand new offensive coordinator. The Falcons just came off a huge win and should be feeling very confident, especially at home. What does everyone else think of this pick? I see this being a 10-14 point game

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    Too many unkwowns for me to touch. The only play I would make is Atlanta on the ML.
    BTGM - Houston Texans

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    Third Round (No. 65) - Gabe Jackson, OG
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    Fourth Round (No. 106)
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    Walter is offline Administrator 1000% USDA Young Stallion
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    Quote Originally Posted by higgy2214 View Post
    This is walters top pick this week with the niners at +7... Im a die hard niiners fan and I have trouble seeing them cover this on the road with a brand new offensive coordinator. The Falcons just came off a huge win and should be feeling very confident, especially at home. What does everyone else think of this pick? I see this being a 10-14 point game
    Coming off a 1-3 point road win and then being favored at home is usually disastrous for teams. Great betting angle for the 49ers.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Walter View Post
    Coming off a 1-3 point road win and then being favored at home is usually disastrous for teams. Great betting angle for the 49ers.
    Being untalented is usually disastrous for teams. Great betting angle against the 49ers.
    49ers Be the GM

    Drafted: Aaron Donald (DL), 3.31, 3.36
    Acquired: Terrelle Pryor (QB), David Wilson (RB), Will Hill (DB), Mark Sanchez (QB), Leodis McKelvin (CB), Adrian Peterson (RB)

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    Walter is offline Administrator 1000% USDA Young Stallion
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    Quote Originally Posted by Arcade View Post
    Being untalented is usually disastrous for teams. Great betting angle against the 49ers.
    If that sort of mentality worked, and betting against untalented teams always allowed bettors to cash in, everyone would be rich and there would be no sports betting anymore. Betting the NFL is all about finding spots.

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    The Falcons have been pounding the stay focused drum all week, but I still wouldn't bet on this game. I can see this game being close just as easily as I can see the Falcons blowing them out of the Georgia Dome. Right now I'd sway 60/40 Falcons covering. Firing the OC is only going to allow the players an excuse for underperforming just as it was used by Mike Singletary.

  7. Quote Originally Posted by Arcade View Post
    Being untalented is usually disastrous for teams. Great betting angle against the 49ers.
    You don't understand gambling.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Walter View Post
    If that sort of mentality worked, and betting against untalented teams always allowed bettors to cash in, everyone would be rich and there would be no sports betting anymore. Betting the NFL is all about finding spots.
    I see you refernecing this alot recently. Can you explain exactly what that means?
    BTGM - Houston Texans

    First Round (No. 1) - Jadaveon Clowney, DE/OLB
    Second Round (No. 56) - Jeremy Hill, RB
    Third Round (No. 65) - Gabe Jackson, OG
    Third Round (No. 84) - Jimmy Garoppolo, QB
    Fourth Round (No. 106)
    Fourth Round (No. 120)
    Fourth Round (No. 135)
    Fifth Round (No. 141)
    Sixth Round (No. 177)
    Sixth Round (No. 181)
    Sixth Round (No. 205)
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    Seventh Round (No. 256)



    CMD V - New York Jets

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    Walter is offline Administrator 1000% USDA Young Stallion
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    Quote Originally Posted by pheltzbahr View Post
    I see you refernecing this alot recently. Can you explain exactly what that means?
    Teams can't play at 100-percent peak efficiency every week. Sometimes they'll be at 100. Sometimes 80. Sometimes 50. The Jaguars are usually at 10 if they're playing non-divisional opponents because they are lazy.

    Betting football is all about gambling on teams in good spots who will be playing well, or going against teams in poor spots who are bound to struggle.

    Take the Falcons for example. They were at 100 percent last week because beating the Saints was their No. 1 priority going into the season. The Saints, meanwhile, were not near 100 percent coming off a close road win off a short work week. I bet the Falcons for this reason.

    Now, Atlanta itself is coming off a short road win in an emotional overtime contest and is laying points to a team that just got clobbered by the Chiefs.

    This 49ers team was way down last week because they put everything they had into the Saints game and came up short. They were flat at KC, which is why they couldn't compete.

    Now, the 49ers are in a must-win situation. They're the underdogs again, which is a role they thrive in. The Falcons can't possibly muster the same energy they had last week.

    Thus, this is a great spot for SF and a poor spot for ATL. The 49ers +7 are the play. This was very close to being my Pick of the Month.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Walter View Post
    Teams can't play at 100-percent peak efficiency every week. Sometimes they'll be at 100. Sometimes 80. Sometimes 50. The Jaguars are usually at 10 if they're playing non-divisional opponents because they are lazy.

    Betting football is all about gambling on teams in good spots who will be playing well, or going against teams in poor spots who are bound to struggle.

    Take the Falcons for example. They were at 100 percent last week because beating the Saints was their No. 1 priority going into the season. The Saints, meanwhile, were not near 100 percent coming off a close road win off a short work week. I bet the Falcons for this reason.

    Now, Atlanta itself is coming off a short road win in an emotional overtime contest and is laying points to a team that just got clobbered by the Chiefs.

    This 49ers team was way down last week because they put everything they had into the Saints game and came up short. They were flat at KC, which is why they couldn't compete.

    Now, the 49ers are in a must-win situation. They're the underdogs again, which is a role they thrive in. The Falcons can't possibly muster the same energy they had last week.

    Thus, this is a great spot for SF and a poor spot for ATL. The 49ers +7 are the play. This was very close to being my Pick of the Month.
    Thanks for the explanation, I really like the thought process behind it. Have you ever come across stats for teams traveling cross country ATS (east to west or west to east)? I'd be interested if they were similar or divergent.
    BTGM - Houston Texans

    First Round (No. 1) - Jadaveon Clowney, DE/OLB
    Second Round (No. 56) - Jeremy Hill, RB
    Third Round (No. 65) - Gabe Jackson, OG
    Third Round (No. 84) - Jimmy Garoppolo, QB
    Fourth Round (No. 106)
    Fourth Round (No. 120)
    Fourth Round (No. 135)
    Fifth Round (No. 141)
    Sixth Round (No. 177)
    Sixth Round (No. 181)
    Sixth Round (No. 205)
    Sixth Round (No. 211)
    Seventh Round (No. 256)



    CMD V - New York Jets

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