31. Christian McCaffrey, (RB No. 16)RB, Panthers. Bye: 7.
McCaffrey was just okay as a runner, but hedid show improvement in that area as the season went on. His true ability, however, lies in his receiving ability, which netted him 80 receptions for his rookie year. He should see a slightly larger workload this coming season and out-touch Jonathan Stewart for the year. McCaffrey is a no-brainer PPR stud, but he does enough to be on your radar in non-PPR as long as you factor in that he will likely never be a double-digit touchdown scorer.
Drake put up big numbers to finish the season as he became Miami's No. 1 back after Jay Ajayi left and Damien Williams was injured. I don't think we can count on those numbers extnding for a whole season, but we know Drake has the ability.
Rodgers remains the most consistent fantasy quarterback out there, and there really is no argument. Yes, you can argue why another quarterback could be the No. 1 fantasy quarterback this season, but Rodgers has a track record that no other player has, besides maybe Antonio Brown.
35. Russell Wilson, (QB No. 2)QB, Seahawks. Bye: 5.
Wilson has such great upside, even in games where he isn't at his best, that I find it hard to not rank him second at the moment. I would love to see the Seahawks add some receiving weapons and offensive linemen, but no matter what, Wilson gets the job done on many fronts.
Mixon wasn't good as a rookie, but did show some flashes. Gio Bernard isn't going anywhere and the Bengals could always draft a running back at some point who could push Mixon, but he should be the No. 1 back.
Derek Carr says that Cooper was hurting more than he let on last season, which gives some hope for this year. Cooper has a ton of ability, but hasn't been able to put it together completely. I'm going to lean toward his ability more than his recent stats, but he's not a lock at this point and it sure looked like he would be.
38. Larry Fitzgerald, (WR No. 17)WR, Cardinals. Bye: 9.
Fitzgerald will likely see close to 100 receptions again this season, so you can't fade him due to his oldness, but we still don't know who his quarterback will be. But we've seen Fitzgerald put up good numbers with bad quarterbacks, like last year, so I see no reason not to take the safe receptions.
I guess we'll have to wait for Brady's arm to literally fall out of the socket before knocking him down the rankings despite his AARP card. He is a great quarterback, probably the greatest of all time, but at this point, there's no doubt that his consistency at 41 years old has a lot to do with the Patriots' system, which should be good to go for yet another season.
40. Rob Gronkowski, (TE No. 2)TE, Patriots. Bye: 9.
There is a real possibility that Gronkowski will retire this offseason, but the odds are on the side of him playing. A healthy Gronkowski has the most upside at the position, but injuries have hurt him and are likely a reason he is considering retirement. As long as he plays, he is a top-two tight end, but I'm leaning Kelce as a safer pick.
Am I too high on Watson? Very possible, but if you are going to go after a quarterback early, they sure better have league-winning upside, and Watson sure has that. He led all quarterbacks in fantasy points per game last season and showed me enough to risk an earlier-round pick.
DeMarco Murray will more than likely be released, which pushes Henry into the lead role. I expect this offense to improve under new management, so Henry is squarely in my draft list, but we do need to take into account the fact that he won't see a lot of targets.
Jones isn't a PPR stud, but he sure was great on deep passes last season and finished as the fifth-best fantasy receiver in non-PPR and 11th in PPR. He'll have his inconsistencies as a home run hitter, but I think he's found a strong-armed quarterback to keep him in he fantasy points.