Fantasy Football: The Things I Learned – Week 11, 2017

By Chet Gresham – @ChetGresham
Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Below, check out my fantasy-centered recaps of key players from this week’s contests. For instance, did a player come back to earth after an aberrant breakout, or were they simply affected by something like game flow?

Texans 31, Cardinals 21
Against the Texans, Blaine Gabbert completed 22-of-34 passes for 257 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions. He added three carries for 13 yards, but wasn’t as active on the ground as he has been in the past. He looked good for much of the game, but did throw two interceptions with the game still in doubt late. It does seem like a good-enough outing to keep him as the starter next week, but he would get his original team, the Jaguars

Adrian Peterson needs extremely weak run defenses to have much value. This has become apparent, but the Cardinals don’t really have anyone else.

Larry Fitzgerald has caught a touchdown from about 50 different quarterbacks – Elias, could you check my math there? -. This week, he caught a beauty of a pass from Gabbert for a touchdown and added nine receptions on 10 targets for 91 yards. Even in his withered oldness, the man continues to produce.

Ricky Seals-Jones caught 3-of-5 targets for 54 yards and two touchdowns, and before today, you most-likely had never heard of him, and after today, you may never hear of him again. He’s a third stringer, and so was Gabbert, so they did have plenty of reps together in practice. There’s always a chance that connection pops up again if Gabbert gets more starts, but I’m not going to beat myself up if I miss out on a miracle tight end story.

Tom Savage completed 22-of-32 passes for 230 yards, two touchdowns and an interception, plus lost a fumble. He was good enough to give the offensive players fantasy value, but was still inaccurate. This was an above-average matchup for a quarterback, and he put up an average game.

Lamar Miller was outplayed by D’Onta Foreman on Sunday, but Foreman went down with a torn Achilles. Before his injury, he had rushed 10 times for 65 yards and two touchdowns, plus caught all three of his targets for 15 yards, while Miller rushed 22 times for 61 yards and caught 4-of-5 targets for 22 yards and a touchdown. That’s a tough break for Foreman, but in fantasy, it will boost Miller back up to a place where we know he isn’t going to cede big work to his backup.

Giants 12, Chiefs 9
Alex Smith completed 27-of-40 passes for 230 yards and two interceptions, adding five carries for 27 yards. So much for Andy Reid’s genius game plan off a break. Maybe he didn’t account enough for the strong winds, who knows? But Smith was not good in a great matchup. It would make sense that the wind could knock down his stats, but this is a game Kansas City should have dominated from the start.

Kareem Hunt had four carries in the first half; the same number as Charcandrick West for the love of all things holy! Reid did start to give Hunt more work in the second half, and Hunt ended up rushing 18 times for 73 yards, catching 3-of-4 targets for four yards. Four yards on three receptions is pretty tough to do in itself. The workload was there overall, but the production wasn’t. Hunt ran hard, but the wind shortened the field for everyone. He gets a chance a true bounce-back game at home next week against the Bills.

Eli Manning completed 19-of-35 passes for 205 yards. No Sterling Shepard due to migraines, Evan Engram playing his worst game of the season, and the wind, were all factors that made a good fantasy game for Manning almost impossible.

Orleans Darkwa continues to have a good, if quiet season, as he rushed 20 times for 74 yards and a touchdown, plus caught two-of-four passes for 16 yards. Those two passes he didn’t catch were drops, but overall, it was a positive game for a perennially poor performer.

Saints 34, Redskins 31
Kirk Cousins completed 22-of-32 passes for 322 yards and three touchdowns, and he looked good doing so. I think we can still consider the Saints a below-average pass defense despite their numbers against poor quarterbacks this season, which gives Jared Goff, Matt Ryan, Cam Newton and even Josh McCown some upside against them as we close out the fantasy season.

Washington’s running back situation just got a little clearer after today’s game, but it’s bad news for Chris Thompson, who broke his fibula and is done for the season. He did catch a touchdown pass before his injury. Samaje Perine is the last man standing now, and he amazingly had a good game.

Perine rushed 23 times for 117 yards and a touchdown, plus made 1-of-2 receptions for nine yards. Perine dropped a pass and fumbled once, but it went out of bounds. His fumbles are a problem, but he is now the no-doubt lead back and will get his chances to build on a strong game this week.

Drew Brees completed 29-of-41 passes for 385 yards, two touchdowns and an interception on his way to a big comeback win. He isn’t the same Brees of old, but when he has time, he still can fit the ball into tight margins. He needs to be trailing to be forced to throw the ball like he did this week and be worthwhile in fantasy.

Despite trailing, New Orleans’ running backs continued to dominate, as Mark Ingram rushed 11 times for 134 yards and a touchdown, adding 3-of-4 receptions for 21 yards, while Alvin Kamara rushed eight times for 42 yards and caught 6-of-9 passes for 74 yards and a touchdown. The score did boost Kamara up this week, as he tied Ingram in touches, but had two more “looks” when you factor in targets. But, however you look at it, these two are playing great football and should continue.

Vikings 24, Rams 7
Jared Goff completed 23-of-37 passes for 225 yards. It was a predictable outcome, as he was on the road against a tough Minnesota defense, but it does reinforce the fact that he isn’t matchup proof. Look for him to put up better numbers against the Saints at home next week.

Robert Woods continues to play well, as he caught 8-of-11 targets for 81 yards in a game where the Vikings held the Rams’ offense down. It did help that Xavier Rhodes spent most his time following Sammy Watkins, when there was a chance he would shadow Woods. Woods did hurt his shoulder near the end of the game, so we’ll need to wait on word there.

Case Keenum completed 27-of-38 passes for 280 yards and one touchdown, plus rushed three times for 20 more yards. He did nothing to give Teddy Bridgewater a window to sneak through. Keenum should get the start next week against Detroit.

Latavius Murray is not going into that good night; he is raging, raging against the dying of the light! Murray has been pedestrian at times this year, but he rushed 15 times for 95 yards and two touchdowns against the Rams, and now he has four touchdowns over his last four games. He’s averaged 17.6 touches over his last five games and isn’t in a true committee with Jerick McKinnon. If the Vikings are trailing, McKinnon is going to see a good amount of work, but their defense and offense have made trailing a rare occurrence of late.

Adam Thielen is a bad man. He caught 6-of-9 targets for 123 yards and one touchdown, and dominated doing so. He now has six games over 96 yards, and after not scoring a touchdown in his first seven games, he has now scored one in each of his last three.

Buccaneers 30, Dolphins 20
Jay Cutler left this game with a concussion after completing 6-of-12 passes for 83 yards with one touchdown and three interceptions. He was awful. Matt More came in and lit a fire under the offense, completing 17-of-28 passes for 282 yards and a touchdown. It wasn’t enough, but it sure was a lot better than Cutler. Moore is a backup for a reason, but he’s better than Cutler right now. We’ll see if the Dolphins stick with Moore next week against the Patriots.

Kenny Stills was questionable to play this week, but he smashed, by catching 7-of-8 targets for 180 yards and a touchdown. It sure would be nice if we could count on this Miami offense, as its skill players have ability, but right now Jarvis Landry is the only consistent player. Landry caught 6-of-11 targets for 95 yards and a touchdown and now has six touchdowns in his last seven games.

Damien Williams led the Dolphins’ backfield, rushing 10 times for 78 yards and catching his one target for 24 more yards, while Kenyan Drake touched the ball eight times for 14 yards. Neither player is seeing enough work to be consistent though.

Ryan Fitzpatrick completed 22-of-37 passes for 275 yards and two touchdowns. Playing a weak Miami secondary helped, and getting turnovers in Miami territory also helped, but he did put up a decent fantasy game. Jameis Winston will be reevaluated and could play next week, but that’s very much up in the air.

Doug Martin rushed 19 times for 38 yards and caught two passes for six yards. With a good lead and plenty of opportunities, Martin went nowhere. He did have a long catch and run negated by a penalty, but otherwise he was stuck in the mud all game. He’s still getting good volume, but can only be used as a flex option right now.

Ravens 23, Packers 0
Brett Hundley completed 21-of-36 passes for 239 yards and three interceptions. It was a tough matchup to be sure, but Hundley remains bad and will continue to hurt the Packers’ overall offensive/fantasy players.

The only player Hundley hasn’t hurt is Devante Adams, who caught 8-of-10 passes for 126 yards, which was over 50 percent of all of Green Bay’s passing yards.

Jordy Nelson is droppable in most shallow leagues at this point. Since Aaron Rodgers went down, Nelson has caught 16 passes for 152 yards and no touchdowns over five games.

Jamaal Williams rushed 18 times for 57 yards and caught 4-of-6 passes for 38 yards. It wasn’t good, but the Ravens’ defense is, so I do think Williams could have some upside in a good matchup, but the Packers face tough run defenses to finish the season and Ty Montgomery could be back this week.

Joe Flacco completed 22-of-28 passes for 183 yards with a touchdown and an interception. He didn’t need to do much, as Brett Hundley threw three interceptions and Baltimore’s defense was dominant.

Alex Collins had 20 carries for 49 yards and a touchdown, adding four catches for 22 yards. The Packers’ run defense has played well this season, so it’s not a crazy line, but I do expect more from 20 carries. He’ll remain the lead back, as Terrance West, Javorius Allen and Danny Woodhead were all healthy this week.

Danny Woodhead played ahead of Javorius Allen and caught 5-of-6 targets for 21 yards. In a game where the other team scores some actual points, Woodhead would have likely seen an even-bigger workload and should be a PPR must-play moving forward.

Jaguars 19, Browns 7
DeShone Kizer completed 16-of-32 passes for 179 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions, plus lost two fumbles. It was another poor game from Kizer, and “poor” is probably too generous.

Corey Coleman led the Browns in targets, receptions and yards in his first game back, as he caught 6-of-11 targets for 80 yards. Now, if they could find a quarterback to throw to him.

Blake Bortles completed 17-of-30 passes for 154 yards and one touchdown. He also lost a fumble. Thankfully for his team, the defense was able to score and seal a win, while Bortles continues to barely meet expectations as a game manager.

Leonard Fournette rushed 28 times for 111 yards and added two catches for seven yards. His ankle was supposedly going to limit him, but there was no such limitation this week. It’s a good sign, as the Browns are one of the best run defenses in the league.

Lions 27, Bears 24
Mitchell Trubisky completed 18-of-30 passes for 179 yards and a touchdown, adding 53 yards on six carries. He also fumbled a snap that was returned for a touchdown. He continues to show ability, but doesn’t have much support on offense and is still very much a rookie.

Jordan Howard rushed 15 times for 125 yards and a touchdown. He hadn’t scored since Week 4, so this game was nice to see. Howard faces a tough Philadelphia run defense next week, but then gets the 49ers at home for a blow-up spot.

Tarik Cohen rushed nine times for 44 yards and a touchdown, and caught 4-of-6 passes for 15 yards. It was good to see him get more involved, as he had just eight touches over his previous three games.

Matthew Stafford completed 21-of-31 passes for 299 yards and two touchdowns in a tough spot against a good defense on the road. Stafford now has multiple touchdowns in five of his last six games and has topped 390 yards passing five times this season, with four of those coming in his last five games. He gets a tough matchup with Minnesota at home on Thanksgiving Day. When they met in Week 4, he totaled 209 yards passing with no touchdowns.

Marvin Jones caught 4-of-7 targets for 85 yards and a touchdown to lead the Lions. It was a good bounce-back game after his one-catch performance against the Browns last week, and he now four touchdowns over his last five games and four games with 85 or more yards in his last five. He’ll likely face off with Xavier Rhodes next week.

Chargers 54, Bills 24
This game has been talked about quite a bit, so you might have already seen how well Nathan Peterman did in replacing Tyrod Taylor as Buffalo’s starting quarterback, but if not, let me tell you now, he was awful. Peterman completed just 6-of-14 passes for 66 yards and five interceptions before being pulled at halftime for Taylor, who went on to put up good numbers in garbage time. Coach Sean McDermott didn’t say who would start next week against Kansas City, but if it’s not Taylor, McDermott’s just trying to lose.

LeSean McCoy rushed 13 times for 114 yards and one touchdown, plus caught his one target for a 12-yard touchdown. He only got the 14 touches becasue this was such a blowout, but it was good to see him rip off chunk gains on his few touches. Keep rolling him out there as a top running back.

Philip Rivers completed 20-of-32 passes for 251 yards and two touchdowns, and then took off much of the second half with the big lead. If this game would have been close, I expect Rivers would have put up a top-five game, but as it is, I think his fantasy backers will take it.

Both of Rivers’ touchdowns went to Keenan Allen, who broke out in a big way, catching 12-of-13 targets for 159 yards and the two scores. Allen hadn’t scored a touchdown since Week 1 and hadn’t topped 67 yards since Week 4. Hopefully, this will get him going, and he has good upside to finish the season, with matchups against Dallas, Cleveland, Washington, Kansas City and the New York Jets.

Bengals 20, Broncos 17
Brock Osweiler completed 23-of-42 passes for 254 yards, one touchdown and one interception while rushing for 24 yards on four carries. He wasn’t good, as usual.

Devontae Booker out-touched C.J. Anderson this week 19 to 15. Booker rushed 14 times for 44 yards and caught 5-of-6 targets for 54 yards, while Anderson rushed 13 times for 37 yards and a touchdown, while catching 2-of-3 passes for 19 yards. Booker was likely used more late in the game due to his receiving abilities, but he also saw more rushing attempts than Anderson. This looks like it’s a going to be a split backfield, as Jamaal Charles only saw three carries all game.

Andy Dalton completed 15-of-25 passes for 154 yards and three touchdowns. It was a strong game from Dalton despite that low yardage. The Broncos have now given up 22 passing touchdowns this season compared to just 12 all of last year.

Dalton threw touchdowns to A.J. Green, Tyler Kroft and Alex Erickson, but none topped 50 yards receiving. Denver still has great defensive personnel and will likely stop the bleeding at some point, so I think Dalton should be commended for his game, and if you played Green and/or Kroft, you should take your fantasy points and run.

Patriots 33, Raiders 8
Derek Carr completed 28-of-49 passes for 237 yards, one touchdown and one interception. His receivers didn’t really help him out, but in the end, the whole team was just beat down by the Patriots’ super-efficient offense, which then put Carr in pass mode, which the Patriots knew was coming.

Marshawn Lynch looked good early on, but was quickly taken out of the game by the Patriots’ big lead. It would be nice to see what a 20-plus carry game from Lynch would look like.

Tom Brady completed 30-of-37 passes for 339 yards and three touchdowns as he coasted to a big game against whatever the Raiders call what they put out there to stop him.

Rex Burkhead looked like he was going to see a good amount of work, as he was heavily involved on the first drive, but on that drive, he fumbled. That’s a big no-no in Bill Belichick’s book of no-nos and even though the Patriots recovered, Burkhead’s role was reduced.

Dion Lewis rushed 10 times for 60 yards and caught all four of his targets for 28 yards and a touchdown. That receiving touchdown was on the first drive and could have easily been Burkhead’s target if not for the fumble, because Lewis had not been used in the passing game until this week. Lewis should continue to see a good chunk of work in this offense, while Burkhead did stay ahead of James White in workload, so there is a chance Burkhead won’t be in the doghouse long.

Brandin Cooks caught 6-of-9 targets for 149 yards and a touchdown, and he probably would have kept adding to those numbers if the Patriots hadn’t gotten out to such a big lead. As long as Chris Hogan is out, Cooks should continue to be a top target in this offense.

Eagles 37, Cowboys 9
Dak Prescott completed 18-of-31 passes 145 yards and three interceptions against the Eagles, plus lost a fumble that was returned for a touchdown. Prescott was not good, and it can’t all be blamed on the absence of Tyron Smith and Ezekiel Elliott. It would help him immensely to get Smith back sooner than later, but we just can’t count on Prescott at the moment.

Alfred Morris had 17 carries for 91 yards and is the clear lead back in this offense. Playing from behind isn’t his strong suit unfortunately, so he really needs Prescott and the offense to get back on track for him to have good upside, but next week against the Chargers, I expect he should put together a decent game.

Carson Wentz completed 14-of-27 passes for 168 yards and two touchdowns. It wasn’t a great game, but he also never had much heat on him to score, as the Cowboys couldn’t move the ball. Wentz made some great plays in this one and continues to prove himself as a top quarterback in this league each week.

Despite Doug Pederson saying that Jay Ajayi should see a bigger role this week, he played just 13 snaps, as he rushed seven times for 91 yards and caught one pass for 10 yards. The 101 yards is nice, but he was behind both LeGarrette Blount and Corey Clement in snaps this week. Kenjon Barner even got a carry and scored from four yards out. I expect Ajayi will continue to move up the pecking order, but right now, he’s risky despite breaking off a huge run in each of his games with the Eagles.

For more thoughts, check out Walt’s updated NFL Power Rankings, which will be posted Tuesday morning.

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Fantasy Football: The Things I Learned – Week 11, 2017

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