2015 Fantasy Football – Red Zone Report

By Chet Gresham – @ChetGresham
Follow @walterfootball for updates.

In this article I’ll take a look-see at every position and their usage in the red zone. I’ll start with total team usage in the red zone and then move on to individual positions.

Team Total team stats in the red zone are a good way to tell just how efficient and prolific teams have been so far this year. There are of course weird exceptions, like the 49ers who made numerous red zone plays against Pittsburgh in garbage time, but were so inefficient near the goal line that they had multiple fourth downs as they tried to come from behind. But as a whole we can see which offenses are moving the ball near the goal line, which is where we want our fantasy players living.

Tm	Com	Att	PaTD	Int	Ru	RuTD	TotPlay	% Run	% Pass	TotTDs	%TD	RuTD %	PaTD%
CIN	11	25	6	1	27	3	52	51.9%	48.1%	9	17.3%	11.1%	24.0%
NE	17	25	8	0	23	5	48	47.9%	52.1%	13	27.1%	21.7%	32.0%
ATL	11	18	3	1	18	5	36	50.0%	50.0%	8	22.2%	27.8%	16.7%
SF	10	21	1	0	14	3	35	40.0%	60.0%	4	11.4%	21.4%	4.8%
TEN	10	19	7	0	15	3	34	44.1%	55.9%	10	29.4%	20.0%	36.8%
CAR	8	14	3	0	20	2	34	58.8%	41.2%	5	14.7%	10.0%	21.4%
PIT	9	13	3	0	19	5	32	59.4%	40.6%	8	25.0%	26.3%	23.1%
MIN	2	7	1	0	25	4	32	78.1%	21.9%	5	15.6%	16.0%	14.3%
HOU	10	19	4	0	12	2	31	38.7%	61.3%	6	19.4%	16.7%	21.1%
NYJ	10	15	6	0	16	2	31	51.6%	48.4%	8	25.8%	12.5%	40.0%
ARI	8	13	7	0	17	4	30	56.7%	43.3%	11	36.7%	23.5%	53.8%
MIA	9	20	3	0	10	0	30	33.3%	66.7%	3	10.0%	0.0%	15.0%
GB	13	17	8	0	11	1	28	39.3%	60.7%	9	32.1%	9.1%	47.1%
KC	11	17	3	1	10	4	27	37.0%	63.0%	7	25.9%	40.0%	17.6%
DAL	10	17	3	0	10	3	27	37.0%	63.0%	6	22.2%	30.0%	17.6%
PHI	7	14	2	1	13	3	27	48.1%	51.9%	5	18.5%	23.1%	14.3%
OAK	8	15	5	0	12	2	27	44.4%	55.6%	7	25.9%	16.7%	33.3%
IND	7	13	3	0	14	2	27	51.9%	48.1%	5	18.5%	14.3%	23.1%
BAL	8	18	2	1	9	1	27	33.3%	66.7%	3	11.1%	11.1%	11.1%
NYG	8	15	1	0	11	2	26	42.3%	57.7%	3	11.5%	18.2%	6.7%
WAS	6	13	3	0	12	1	25	48.0%	52.0%	4	16.0%	8.3%	23.1%
SEA	9	18	3	0	7	0	25	28.0%	72.0%	3	12.0%	0.0%	16.7%
TB	4	14	2	0	9	1	23	39.1%	60.9%	3	13.0%	11.1%	14.3%
JAX	6	12	3	0	10	0	22	45.5%	54.5%	3	13.6%	0.0%	25.0%
DET	10	18	4	0	3	1	21	14.3%	85.7%	5	23.8%	33.3%	22.2%
SD	9	14	4	2	7	2	21	33.3%	66.7%	6	28.6%	28.6%	28.6%
NO	8	10	2	0	11	3	21	52.4%	47.6%	5	23.8%	27.3%	20.0%
CLE	2	10	1	0	10	1	20	50.0%	50.0%	2	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%
BUF	5	5	2	0	14	3	19	73.7%	26.3%	5	26.3%	21.4%	40.0%
DEN	6	10	4	1	9	1	19	47.4%	52.6%	5	26.3%	11.1%	40.0%
CHI	5	11	0	0	7	2	18	38.9%	61.1%	2	11.1%	28.6%	0.0%
STL	0	2	0	0	6	2	8	75.0%	25.0%	2	25.0%	33.3%	0.0%

The futility prize goes to the St. Louis Rams, who have run just eight plays inside the red zone. This of course is not an oddity with Jeff Fisher teams. The hope is that Todd Gurley will begin helping them sustain more drives. Really, they can't do much worse.

The most futile offense once inside the red zone so far has been the Dolphins. They've run 30 plays inside the red zone and have scored just three touchdowns, for a 10% success rate. So they are getting into the red zone, but can't do much once there. Hopefully that will get better and we can look at Dolphins' fantasy players with some optimism going forward.

Your top teams in the red zone so far have been Arizona, Cincinnati and New England. That of course is no surprise with how well they've been playing this season. Arizona has been the most efficient, with 11 touchdowns on 30 total plays. Compare that to the Dolphins who have the same number of plays.

Minnesota has the biggest percentage of rushing plays compared to passing plays with 78.1 percent to 21.9 percent. That's pretty evident with Adrian Peterson being back, but also is a slight indictment on how well Teddy Bridgewater has played this season, which really isn't all that well. Even with Peterson back, they should be able to throw with more success.

The opposite of that are the Detroit Lions who have passed 85.7 percent of the time to running just 14.3 percent. This has been a problem for the Lions so far this season. Like the Vikings, this could make some sense because Calvin Johnson is their best red zone threat, but of Matthew Stafford's 18 red zone attempts, five have gone toward Johnson for one touchdown.

Wide Receiver Below here are the top targeted wide receivers inside the red zone so far this season. There aren't a ton of names you'll be surprised to see, but let's take a look.

	Wide Receiver
Rk	Player	Tar	Rec	RecTD	TD%/Tar
1	Julio Jones	8	5	2	25.0%
2	DeAndre Hopkins	7	5	3	42.9%
2	A.J. Green	7	3	2	28.6%
2	Julian Edelman	7	5	1	14.3%
2	Jarvis Landry	7	4	0	0.0%
3	Randall Cobb	6	5	4	66.7%
3	Brandon Marshall	6	5	3	50.0%
3	Vincent Jackson	6	1	1	16.7%
3	Steve Smith	6	2	1	16.7%
4	Larry Fitzgerald	5	4	4	80.0%
4	Anquan Boldin	5	2	1	20.0%
4	Jeremy Maclin	5	3	1	20.0%
4	Jordan Matthews	5	4	1	20.0%
4	Calvin Johnson	5	2	1	20.0%
4	Marvin Jones	5	2	1	20.0%
5	Steve Johnson	4	3	2	50.0%
5	Seth Roberts	4	3	2	50.0%
5	Kendall Wright	4	2	1	25.0%
5	T.Y. Hilton	4	2	0	0.0%
5	Michael Crabtree	4	0	0	0.0%
5	DeVante Parker	4	0	0	0.0%
5	Jermaine Kearse	4	3	0	0.0%
5	Cecil Shorts	4	2	0	0.0%
5	Mohamed Sanu	4	2	0	0.0%

Julio Jones is of course the leader in red zone targets, as he's the leader in every positive wide receiver statistic there is. His touchdown percentage is lower than some at 25 percent, but is also completely understandable as the Falcons need to get him the ball somehow and sometimes that's at the line of scrimmage. Getting him the ball in any way is the Falcons best offensive game plan and they are sticking to it so far.

PPR studs, Jarvis Landry and Julian Edelman have taken over as their team's No. 1 receivers and also their top wide receiver red zone targets. Landry has yet to find the end zone, but four receptions on seven targets as a good start and he should cross the goal line sooner than later. Edelman, is much the same with one touchdown reception from inside the red zone, but five receptions on seven targets. Both are getting the opportunities we want.

DeVante Parker should be the Dolphins best red zone target at some point, but he's still not quite there yet. His four targets are a sign that they want to use him in that way, which is good.

Randall Cobb was a big red zone target last season, but he trailed off in the second half of the season and the bigger Jordy Nelson always seemed like the better target, so many believed Cobb's touchdowns would decrease this year. And they might have, but the season ending injury to Nelson has put Cobb right back up into the main touchdown target. And with Aaron Rodgers throwing the ball, any red zone target is a good target.

Tight End Unless you have Rob Gronkowski, you need your tight ends to get as many red zone targets as possible. Of course you want Gronk to get his as well, but that guy can put up big yardage games and score from about anywhere, unlike most tight ends.

	Tight End
Rk	Player	Tar	Rec	RecTD	Tar/TD%
1	Rob Gronkowski	7	4	4	57.1%
1	Greg Olsen	7	5	2	28.6%
1	Heath Miller	7	5	1	14.3%
2	Tyler Eifert	6	3	3	50.0%
3	Scott Chandler	5	3	1	20.0%
3	Jimmy Graham	5	2	1	20.0%
3	Larry Donnell	5	2	1	20.0%
4	Jason Witten	4	3	2	50.0%
4	Kyle Rudolph	4	1	1	25.0%
4	Travis Kelce	4	1	1	25.0%
4	Jordan Cameron	4	1	0	0.0%
5	Anthony Fasano	3	2	1	33.3%
5	Gavin Escobar	3	2	1	33.3%
5	Jordan Reed	3	1	1	33.3%
5	Crockett Gillmore	3	1	1	33.3%
5	Clay Harbor	3	2	1	33.3%

Heath Miller is tied for the lead with seven red zone targets, but much of that came with Le'Veon Bell and of course Martavis Bryant out. Now with those two back and Michael Vick at the helm, you have to severely lower your expectations for Miller going forward.

Greg Olsen is also tied for the lead with seven targets and this comes after his weird Week 1 game in which he saw just three overall targets. Last week was his target bonanza though, as he saw five inside the red zone and caught two for touchdowns. He is easily the safest non-Gronk fantasy tight end in the league.

Over the last two weeks we've seen Marvin Jones getting more work for the Bengals, which has hurt Tyler Eifert's upside a little, but the good news is that Eifert has seen two red zone targets in each game this year. He remains high on my fantasy tight end list.

Amazingly Gronk's sidekick, Scott Chandler, has five red zone targets. Of course he has a total of eight targets on the season, so is the most touchdown dependent fantasy tight end in the league. If you are in a two-tight end touchdown only league, you should grab him up!

Jimmy Graham has 18 targets on the season, which ties him with Jermaine Kearse and is two behind Doug Baldwin. I'm no rocket scientist, but Graham should lead the team in targets. Thankfully he does lead the team in red zone targets with five, while Kearse has four to Baldwin's one. Let's go ahead and give Kearse's four to Graham and we might be onto something.

Running Back For running backs, beloe you'll see a chart for the top targeted backs and the top rushing attempts backs inside the red zone.

	Running Back	Targets				Running Back	Rushing	Att.		Running Back	Rushing	Att.
Rk	Player	Tar	Rec	RecTD	Rk	Player	Rsh	RuTD	Rk	Player	Rsh	RuTD
1	Matt Forte	5	3	0	1	Adrian Peterson	17	1	10	Alfred Blue	6	1
1	Jamaal Charles	5	5	1	2	Devonta Freeman	15	4	10	Alfred Morris	6	0
2	Theo Riddick	4	3	0	3	DeAngelo Williams	13	3	10	LeSean McCoy	6	0
3	DeMarco Murray	3	2	1	4	Jeremy Hill	12	2	11	Joseph Randle	5	2
3	Marshawn Lynch	3	2	0	5	LeGarrette Blount	11	3	11	Eddie Lacy	5	1
3	Mike Tolbert	3	2	0	5	Chris Ivory	11	2	11	Andre Williams	5	1
3	Devonta Freeman	3	3	0	5	Giovani Bernard	11	0	11	Rashad Jennings	5	1
3	Mike Davis	3	2	0	6	Chris Johnson	10	2	11	Matt Forte	5	1
3	Chris Thompson	3	2	1	6	Latavius Murray	10	2	11	Justin Forsett	5	0
3	Bishop Sankey	3	1	1	7	Mark Ingram	9	2	11	Mike Tolbert	5	0
4	LeVeon Bell	2	1	0	7	Dion Lewis	9	2	11	Mike Davis	5	0
4	Damien Williams	2	2	1	8	Jamaal Charles	8	3	11	Doug Martin	5	0
4	Marcel Reece	2	2	2	8	T.J. Yeldon	8	0	11	Josh Robinson	5	0
4	Ameer Abdullah	2	2	1	9	Danny Woodhead	7	2	12	Bishop Sankey	4	1
4	Jonathan Grimes	2	2	0	9	Frank Gore	7	2	12	Ronnie Hillman	4	1
4	Danny Woodhead	2	1	0	9	Carlos Hyde	7	2	12	Anthony Dixon	4	1
4	Lorenzo Taliaferro	2	2	0	9	Isaiah Crowell	7	1	12	Antonio Andrews	4	1
4	Bilal Powell	2	0	0	9	Jonathan Stewart	7	0	12	Ryan Mathews	4	1
4	Mark Ingram	2	2	0	10	DeMarco Murray	6	1	12	Darren McFadden	4	1
4	Bruce Miller	2	1	0	10	Matt Jones	6	1	12	Lamar Miller	4	0
									12	C.J. Anderson	4	0

Matt Forte leads all running backs in red zone targets with five, which is pretty good considering the Bears didn't run one play inside the Seahawks' red zone last week. He remains one of the most versatile fantasy backs in the league.

Adrian Peterson has a whopping seventeen rushing attempts inside the red zone, but only one touchdown. That will change of course as Peterson has looked better each week.

Devonta Freeman had an insane 10 rushing attempts inside the red zone last week on his way to three rushing touchdowns. It will be difficult for him to see that many looks again, but just the fact they used him that much in this game is eye-opening enough to feel like it might happen again in some way.

It sure seems like a long time since Jeremy Hill scored two touchdowns in Week 1, but it happened and he's still seeing red zone work, with four red zone carries last week. He should turn things around enough to be worthwhile, but Gio Bernard isn't going to fall to the wayside.

Joseph Randle has five red zone carries and Darren McFadden has four. And now Christine Michael is set to be active this week. Randle's big game in Week 3 might not be the start of something, or it might, but it might not.

If Ben Roethlisberger was quarterbacking right now I'd feel great about DeAngelo Williams' numbers in relation to Le'Veon Bell. Together they have 18 looks inside the red zone, which if Bell had played in Week 1 and 2, would have gone to Bell. It goes to show you how potent this offense was to start the season, but unfortunately Michael Vick won't be moving the team down the field with the same ease. For more recommendations, check out WalterFootball.com's Fantasy Football Rankings.

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Fantasy Football Rankings

2015 Fantasy Football Rankings:
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Chet Gresham's Fantasy Football Running Back Rankings - 9/4 (Chet)
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2015 Fantasy Football Rankings: Tight Ends - 9/10 (Walt)
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