I ran a feature last February, listing the top 10 overdrafted players in 2013 - the players who would be selected too early in fantasy leagues this upcoming summer. I'm going to run another list for 2015:
Peyton Manning, QB, Broncos.
Peyton Manning couldn't commit to returning to football following the press conference after his latest playoff choke job. His arm looked like it was decaying toward the end of the regular season. He didn't have a single good fantasy performance following Week 12. He was dealing with a torn quad, but Manning will be an overrated commodity in 2015, given that he's now
Matt Forte, RB, Bears
Marc Trestman is gone, which is not good news for Matt Forte's PPR outlook. He will not catch 100 balls again in 2014. It's also fair to wonder about Forte's workload. He has 1,817 career rushes in his seven NFL seasons, and that's not even taking into account all of the receptions he's accumulated. Forte, who will turn 30 in December, will begin to break down sometime soon.
DeMarco Murray, RB, Cowboys.
It was shocking to see DeMarco Murray make it through most of the 2014 season unharmed. That's unlikely to happen again, however, given that Murray led the NFL in carries this past season. Running backs who have handled the greatest workload struggle the following year (most recently, LeSean McCoy), so Murray should see a decline in production, especially if he goes to a team with an inferior offensive line.
Jonathan Stewart, RB, Panthers.
Jonathan Stewart was on fire down the stretch. Following the team's Week 12 bye, Stewart averaged 97.2 yards per game on the ground. We saw the potential he had if he could stay healthy. Unfortunately, that's an issue; Stewart has missed 20 contests in the past three seasons. Stewart's strong finish could cause him to go overdrafted. I wouldn't risk an early pick on him.
DeSean Jackson, WR, Redskins
By some miracle, DeSean Jackson wasn't injured very much this past season. Jackson had a big year as a consequence, but don't count on that happening again. It's time to sell high here. Jackson is too injury-prone to rely upon, and the shaky quarterback position doesn't inspire confidence.
Steve Smith, WR, Ravens.
Steve Smith is always difficult to predict because the motivation isn't always there. He quit on Cam Newton in 2013 and Jimmy Clausen in 2010, looking done on both occasions. His effort could drop in 2015, and even if it doesn't, Father Time might have something to say about his production; Smith turns 36 in May. I'd sell high here.
Antonio Gates, TE, Chargers.
Antonio Gates came out of nowhere last year to catch 12 touchdowns after scoring just four the year before. That's not going to happen again. First of all, it's highly unlikely that Gates will make it through another season completely healthy. Second, he'll turn 35 in June, so his body will break down even further sometime soon.
Martellus Bennett, WR, Bears.
Martellus Bennett caught a whopping 90 passes in 2014. That's because Jay Cutler was constantly under siege behind his putrid offensive line and had to check the ball down to his tight end. Bennett's production is bound to decrease; Chicago will bolster its blocking, while Marc Trestman's departure will hurt.