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2012 Fantasy Football: First-Round Bust History

There will be many more 2012 Fantasy Football Rankings and features in the late spring and summer, including tons of 2012 Fantasy Football Mock Drafts and Player Rankings. I'll also have an extensive 2012 NFL Fantasy Football Preseason Stock Report. Follow me @walterfootball for updates.

2012 Fantasy Football - First-Round Bust History (Feb. 17):

If you've played fantasy football for a while, you know that whiffing on your first-round pick can prove to be pretty costly. Despite this, there are several first-round consensus players who bust each year.

In this article, I'm going to look at my top 12 rankings over the previous six years to see if we can establish some sort of trend for finding potential fantasy busts.

2011 Fantasy Football Top 12:

Chris Johnson, RB, Titans. (BUST)
Ray Rice, RB, Ravens.
Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings.
LeSean McCoy, RB, Eagles.
Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Steelers. (BUST)
Andre Johnson, WR, Texans. (BUST)
Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers.
Arian Foster, RB, Texans.
Darren McFadden, RB, Raiders. (BUST)
Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions.
Jamaal Charles, RB, Chiefs. (BUST)
Frank Gore, RB, 49ers.

Chris Johnson (Inexplicable Regression): Well, maybe it's not that inexplicable. Chris Johnson spent too much time clamoring for a contract this offseason. As a result, he looked slow and sluggish.

Rashard Mendenhall (Injuries): Rashard Mendenhall's carry total went down from 324 in 2010 to 228 in 2011. He battled nagging injuries all year and didn't look very good running the football.

Andre Johnson (Injury): There was nothing you could do about this.

Darren McFadden (Injury): Darren McFadden was awesome early, but he never returned to the lineup after getting hurt in the middle of the season. This was pretty predictable.

Jamaal Charles (Injury): Jamaal Charles tore his ACL in Week 2.

2010 Fantasy Football Top 12:

Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings.
Chris Johnson, RB, Titans.
Ray Rice, RB, Ravens.
Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jaguars.
Frank Gore, RB, 49ers. (BUST)
Michael Turner, RB, Falcons.
Andre Johnson, WR, Texans.
Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers.
Randy Moss, WR, Patriots. (BUST)
Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions.
Ryan Mathews, RB, Chargers. (BUST)
Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Steelers.

Frank Gore (Injury): Frank Gore was a bust because he played in only 11 games, and was limited in several others. You usually can't project injuries, but Gore is a player who always seems to be hurt, even dating back to his college days.

Randy Moss (Age): The Randy Moss thing befuddled me. Tom Brady and Moss showed good chemistry in the preseason, so Moss' rapid decline came from out of nowhere. Or did it? Moss turned 33 seven months prior to the start of the 2010 season. One of my rules is that you should never pick a non-quarterback 32 years or older early in your fantasy draft. Non-quarterbacks tend to decline at 32 or 33. That's not always the case - see Derrick Mason - but it usually is. I don't know why I didn't listen to my own advice with Moss. I guess I just figured that Brady would be able to carry him. Whoops.

Ryan Mathews (Injury): Ryan Mathews had a decent Week 1 performance against the Chiefs, considering the sloppy conditions at Arrowhead. However, after generating 55 yards on just seven touches against the Jaguars in Week 2, he suffered a high ankle sprain during that contest and was never the same until late in the year. As I said, you usually can't project injuries. This one came out of nowhere.

2009 Fantasy Football Top 12:

Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings.
Matt Forte, RB, Bears. (BUST)
Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jaguars.
LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, Chargers. (BUST)
Chris Johnson, RB, Titans.
Steve Slaton, RB, Texans. (BUST)
DeAngelo Williams, RB, Panthers.
Randy Moss, WR, Patriots.
Clinton Portis, RB, Redskins. (BUST)
Michael Turner, RB, Falcons. (BUST)
Steven Jackson, RB, Rams.
Andre Johnson, WR, Texans.

Matt Forte (Inexplicable Regression): Matt Forte had an incredible rookie year and was also very good in 2010 despite the fact that Mike Martz didn't give him 250 carries for the first time in his career. So, what happened in 2009? Forte admitted that he didn't put enough effort into his workouts the preceding offseason and was consequently out of shape.

LaDainian Tomlinson (Age): LaDainian Tomlinson had 12 touchdowns in 2009, but really struggled overall. He rushed for just 730 yards and caught only 20 balls. Tomlinson was only 29 heading into the 2009 campaign, but already had 2,100 carries under his belt. That's the red flag number for running backs.

By the way, for those concerned about Steven Jackson wearing down, he's only at 1,878 carries, so he should still have one really good year left in the tank.

Steve Slaton (Inexplicable Regression): It's hard to believe that Steve Slaton had 1,282 rushing yards, 377 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns as a rookie in 2008. In 2009, however, Slaton averaged 3.3 yards per carry and lost five fumbles, prompting Gary Kubiak to bench him. I'll never understand what happened to Slaton. He definitely had the talent, but perhaps he just didn't love football enough to put in the necessary offseason work to be a great player.

Clinton Portis (Age): As with LaDainian Tomlinson, Clinton Portis was over the 2,100-carry mark. Avoiding players who hit this plateau is a valuable lesson I learned during the 2009 season.

Michael Turner (Overuse): I don't know why I had Michael Turner so high because I wrote the following in the 2009 fantasy rankings:

If you take [Turner's] 376 attempts and add on 18 from the playoff loss to Arizona, you get 394 carries. Why is this important? Check out this fantasy football article chronicling the history of running backs with high carry totals and how they performed the following year. It's not pretty.

2008 Fantasy Football Top 12:

LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, Chargers
Steven Jackson, RB, Rams
Brian Westbrook, RB, Eagles
Joseph Addai, RB, Colts (BUST)
Frank Gore, RB, 49ers
Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings
Tom Brady, QB, Patriots (BUST)
Randy Moss, WR, Patriots
Clinton Portis, RB, Redskins
Marion Barber, RB, Cowboys
Marshawn Lynch, RB, Bills
Ryan Grant, RB, Packers

Joseph Addai (Injury): Joseph Addai rushed for 1,072 yards and scored 15 touchdowns in 2007, but couldn't follow that up because of health issues. Addai has been banged up ever since.

Tom Brady (Injury): There was only one first-round quarterback bust in the past five years. That was Tom Brady, who suffered that nasty knee injury in the season opener against the Chiefs. Obviously, no one could have predicted that.

2007 Fantasy Football Top 12:

LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, Chargers
Steven Jackson, RB, Rams
Frank Gore, RB, 49ers
Joseph Addai, RB, Colts
Larry Johnson, RB, Chiefs (BUST)
Laurence Maroney, RB, Patriots (BUST)
Brian Westbrook, RB, Eagles
Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jaguars (BUST)
Travis Henry, RB, Broncos (BUST)
Willie Parker, RB, Steelers
Steve Smith, WR, Panthers
Terrell Owens, WR, Cowboys

Larry Johnson (Overuse): Like Michael Turner in 2009, Larry Johnson's 2007 campaign was doomed because he carried the football 416 times in 2006. Everyone say thank you to Herm Edwards for ruining Johnson's career. And I'm not being facetious here - Johnson is a douche, so Herm did the right thing.

Laurence Maroney (Overrated): Bill Belichick spent a first-round pick on Laurence Maroney, so I figured he was good. Not quite. Maroney did average 4.5 yards per carry in 2007, generating 835 rushing yards in the process. However, he never became a big part of the passing game; he caught just four balls that year. Ultimately, Maroney just sucked, and because Belichick overrated him, I made the same mistake.

Maurice Jones-Drew (Veteran Presence): We've seen it many times recently. DeAngelo Williams with Jonathan Stewart. Joseph Addai with Donald Brown. Thomas Jones with Cedric Benson and Shonn Greene. Veteran running backs tend to get more motivated when their team spends an early pick on a running back. That was the case with the Jaguars in 2007. I thought Jones-Drew would get the bulk of the workload in his second season, but Fred Taylor had other ideas. Taylor rushed for 1,200 yards that year.

Travis Henry (Injury): Before Travis Henry took up getting arrested as a hobby, he was a pretty good NFL running back. He rushed for 1,211 yards and seven touchdowns with the Titans in 2006, so I thought he could have a huge season in Mike Shanahan's offense the following year. Unfortunately, Henry had a lingering knee injury all season that caused him to miss four games.

2006 Fantasy Football Top 12:

Larry Johnson, RB, Chiefs
Shaun Alexander, RB, Seahawks (BUST)
LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, Chargers
Tiki Barber, RB, Giants
Steve Smith, WR, Panthers
Terrell Owens, WR, Cowboys
Ronnie Brown, RB, Dolphins
Marvin Harrison, WR, Colts
Peyton Manning, QB, Colts
Torry Holt, WR, Rams
Steven Jackson, RB, Rams
Randy Moss, WR, Raiders (BUST)

Shaun Alexander (Overuse): Yet another running back to lead the NFL in carries (370).

Randy Moss (A-Hole): Randy Moss completely quit on the 2006 Raiders. A year later, he caught 23 touchdown passes.

Fantasy Football First-Round Bust History Summary:

Some interesting things:

1. Of the 21 first-round busts over the past six years, only three have been receivers. One was Andre Johnson (injury), while the others were both Randy Moss. So, if you're taking a receiver in the first round, it's almost a lock that you'll get a reliable fantasy stud. Thus, taking the sure-bet receiver over the risky running back is the wiser move.

2. Only one top-12 quarterback has busted since 2006 (two if you were crazy enough to have QB Dog Killer up there). Signal-callers are usually really safe.

3. Three of the 21 first-round busts were age-related. If you spend an early pick on a non-quarterback, make sure he's A) younger than 32 and B) not about to hit the 2,100-carry mark that season.

4. Three other first-round busts were running backs who led the NFL in carries the previous year. Avoid these guys as well.

2012 Fantasy Football Potential Early Busts:

Check back later in the spring when I will look at some of the players chosen in or near the first round of 2012 Fantasy Football Drafts (or mock drafts). I'll try to identify the riskiest early selections in 2012 Fantasy Football.

***** COMMENT BOX IS BELOW THESE LINKS *****

More 2012 Fantasy Football Articles:
2012 Fantasy Football: Home

2012 Fantasy Football Rankings:
2012 Fantasy Football Rankings: Quarterbacks - 9/2 (Walt)
2012 Fantasy Football Rankings: Running Backs - 9/3 (Walt)
2012 Fantasy Football Rankings: Wide Receivers - 9/2 (Walt)
2012 Fantasy Football Rankings: Tight Ends - 9/2 (Walt)
2012 Fantasy Football Rankings: Kickers - 6/2 (Walt)
2012 Fantasy Football Rankings: Defenses - 6/3 (Walt)
2012 Fantasy Football Downloadable Spreadsheets - 9/2 (Walt)
2012 Fantasy Football Auction Values - 7/28 (Walt)
2012 Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings (Re-Draft) - 5/6 (Walt)
2012 Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings (Dynasty) - 5/6 (Walt)
2012 Fantasy Football Playoff Rankings - 1/2 (Walt)
Week 17 Fantasy Football Rankings - 12/27 (Walt)
Week 17 Fantasy Football Injury Reports - 12/27 (Walt)
Week 17 Fantasy Football Start Em, Sit Em - 12/27 (Walt)
Week 16 Fantasy Football Start Em, Sit Em - 12/20 (Walt)
WalterFootball.com $1,000 Contest on FanDuel.com - 11/4

2012 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheets:
2012 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: Traditional Scoring - 9/4 (Walt)
2012 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: PPR Scoring - 9/4 (Walt)
2012 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: Touchdown Scoring - 9/4 (Walt)
2012 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: 2-QB Format - 9/4 (Walt)
2012 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: Traditional Scoring PRINTABLE - 9/4 (Walt)
2012 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: PPR Scoring PRINTABLE - 9/4 (Walt)
2012 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: Touchdown Scoring PRINTABLE - 9/4 (Walt)
2012 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: 2-QB Format PRINTABLE - 9/4 (Walt)

2012 Fantasy Football Mock Drafts:
2012 Fantasy Football PPR Mock Draft - 8/23 (Walt)
2012 Fantasy Football Mock Draft - 8/16 (Walt)
2012 Fantasy Football Forum 2-QB PPR Mock Draft - 8/9 (Walt)
2012 Fantasy Football Auction Mock Draft - 8/2 (Walt)
2012 Fantasy Football Forum PPR Mock Draft - 7/27 (Walt)
2012 Fantasy Football Forum 2-QB Mock Draft - 7/17 (Walt)
2012 Fantasy Football Forum Standard 14-Team Mock Draft - 7/12 (Walt)
2012 Fantasy Football Forum PPR Mock Draft - 7/6 (Walt)
2012 Fantasy Football Forum Touchdown-Format Mock Draft - 7/4 (Walt)
2012 Fantasy Football Forum Standard Mock Draft - 7/3 (Walt)
2012 Fantasy Football Forum PPR Mock Draft - 6/22 (Walt)
2012 Fantasy Football Forum Mock Draft - 6/14 (Walt)
The Four-Man PPR Fantasy Mock Draft - 5/18 (Walt)

2012 Fantasy Football Articles:
2012 Fantasy Football Stock: Training Camp, OTAs - 9/3 (Walt)
2012 Fantasy Football Preseason Stock - 8/31 (Walt)
2012 NFL Preseason Recap, Fantasy Football Notes - 8/31 (Walt)
2012 Fantasy Football: Quarterback Targets - 8/31 (Walt)
2012 Fantasy Football: 20 Sleepers - 8/28 (Walt)
2012 Fantasy Football: Round-by-Round Strategy - 8/21 (Walt)
2012 Fantasy Football Busts - 6/5 (Walt)
2012 Fantasy Football Sleepers (Early-Middle Rounds) - 6/5 (Walt)
2012 Fantasy Football All-Value Team - 5/26 (Walt)
2012 Fantasy Football Stock Report: Quarterbacks - 5/8 (Walt)
2012 Fantasy Football Stock Report: Running Backs - 5/8 (Walt)
2012 Fantasy Football Stock Report: Wide Receivers - 5/8 (Walt)
2012 Fantasy Football Stock Report: Quarterbacks, Tight Ends - 4/3 (Walt)
2012 Fantasy Football Stock Report: Running Backs - 4/3 (Walt)
2012 Fantasy Football Stock Report: Wide Receivers - 4/3 (Walt)
2012 Fantasy Football: First-Round Bust History - 2/17 (Walt)
Running Backs with Most Carries - 2/17 (Walt)

re mjd off my board 08-28-2012 06:39 pm xxx.xxx.xxx9.85 (total posts: 1)

weird how that worked out isn't it?

MJD off my board 03-06-2012 02:11 am xxx.xxx.xxx8.59 (total posts: 1)

By using your carries logic you have essentially told the world that MJD who ran away with the running attempts title with 343 compared to the 2nd place michael turner (301) and the 3rd place ray rice (291). MJD will be off my board completely next fantasy draft

c. bauer 07-12-2011 09:03 am xxx.xxx.xxx6.15 (total posts: 2)

@Sned

Well you just basically agreed with me that Jackson is a 2nd round pick, we may disagree with how early in the 2nd round but thats understandable. There are obviously better options than Jackson at the running back position but I play in a 12 man league, and if Jackson is my RB1 I'm very content. In my ranking I'd put him more in the Gore, J. Stewart range and slightly above Matthews, Forte, Blount range. If I'm going into the season with Bradshaw, Benson, Geene as my RB1, then its going to be a bad year. But again after both explaining our opionions on Steven Jackson i don't think we are too far off, and I'm also with Satan in saying that Jackson has a lot of positive things working for him this year with an improving St. Louis team.

Satan 07-11-2011 11:13 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.126 (total posts: 4)

@Sned,

In a way, you kinda convinced me. Of that first group of RB's you mentioned, the only 2 RB's that I'd definitely draft Jackson ahead of are Mathews and Stewart. Most of that group consists of younger, more dynamic RB's, which is usually what I value most in my RB1.

I guess all I'm really tryin to say is, I disagree with the popular opinion that says Jackson's arrow is pointing down. I think he will absolutely post better numbers than he did last year, resulting in a top-10 finish among RB's.

Sned 07-11-2011 10:46 pm xxx.xxx.xxx7.25 (total posts: 6)

By the way, Jackson's ranking among RB's for the last four years:
2007: 14th
2008: 14th
2009: 11th
2010: 14th

So not only is he likely to break down due to overuse, but he really wasn't that great an option anyway. At what point in the draft would you be happy with the 14th best RB? 20th overall? 22nd? Don't get me wrong, he's not BAD, he just doesn't belong near the first round. I don't think there's any value in picking him before the 3rd round. Since he won't last that long, let someone else have him.

Sned 07-11-2011 10:34 pm xxx.xxx.xxx7.25 (total posts: 6)

Jackson (IMO) should be drafted behind this group*: Foster, CJ, Peterson, McCoy, Rice, Charles, Mendenhall, McFadden, MJD, Gore, Mathews, J. Stewart (assuming D. Williams leaves)

He offers roughly the same value as this group: Forte, Blount, Benson, Greene, Bradshaw

When you also consider the WR's and QB's who should be drafted ahead of him, he becomes a late 2nd round pick at best. I'd still prefer Benson or Bradshaw 2 rounds later since you'll get similar production.

*Disclaimer: I don't like all these guys, I just think they offer better value than S-Jax. No need to say something like, "you're stupid, MJD is done" because I agree.

Satan 07-11-2011 08:49 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.126 (total posts: 4)

@Sned,

Physically, it's laughable to compare fat-ass Turner to a machine like Jackson. I think a more reasonable comparison is Thomas Jones, another gym rat who had very good fantasy seasons even after losing his speed.

As a 29 year-old, TJ had 310 carries in '07, his first year with the Jets, and he only averaged 3.6 ypc with 2 total TDs. Everybody wrote him off as washed up, but then, over the next 2 years, he totaled 29 TD's and 3,000 total yards.

Jackson hasn't even turned 28 yet and more importantly, he never relied on speed much in the first place. Throughout his career, he's had relatively lower yards per carry seasons because he's the ONLY back they've ever given the ball to... that's a lotta short-yardage, sometimes 0-yard runs just for the sake of moving the chains.

I really think Jackson's gonna surprise people this year.

c. bauer 07-11-2011 07:48 pm xxx.xxx.xxx5.35 (total posts: 3)

@Sned

There are no running backs with upside available 9-16. Just because your league has a higher buy in doesn't exactly mean you play with smarter guys. Running backs in that range don't offer what the top tier guys do. If you pick in the bottom half of round 1 or at the beginning of round 2, feel free to pass on Jackson, good luck with guys like injury risk Gore, unproven Blount, or injury risk McFadden. With the lack of depth in this years running back class taking a running back within the first two rounds is almost a must. Whether you agree or not Jackson falls in right into that range.

Sned 07-11-2011 07:44 pm xxx.xxx.xxx7.25 (total posts: 6)

@Satan

You could've made the same argument for Michael Turner last year. He lost a step, had a lot of carries and now he's a turd. I think S-Jax is heading in the same direction.

Sned 07-11-2011 06:48 pm xxx.xxx.xxx7.25 (total posts: 6)

@Bauer

It's funny that your rebuttal actually made my point. The buy-in for my league is 350. There are no slouches and if you waste a pick between 9-16 on a RB with no upside, you will find it VERY hard to cash, never mind win the league. Striving for mediocrity will get you nowhere.

Oh, and by the way, Charles scores more points on 10 carries than S-Jax does on 17 if you crunch the numbers. Just saying...

c. bauer 07-11-2011 10:55 am xxx.xxx.xxx6.15 (total posts: 2)

@Sned

My middle school league won me $300. I liked knowing what I got out of my RB1 week in and week out. He was reliable and consistent. Having Roddy White, Greg Jennings, Antonio Gates, and Dwayne Bowe sure didn't hurt my team either, but Jackson was a solid pick, and if you want to pull your hair out every other week when Charles gets only 10 carries in a given week and Rice has his td's vultured then be my guest. Their few weeks of busting out 30+ points is stellar its the weeks that they only get 5 that is frustrating. Not too mention that Rice and Charles are going top 7 in mock drafts and I'm talking about picking 9-16.

Sned 07-11-2011 12:48 am xxx.xxx.xxx7.25 (total posts: 6)

@Bauer

So Jamaal Charles and Ray Rice sucked, but S-Jax was good? Charles points, 244. Rice points, 216. S-Jax points, 200. While your mathematical prowess may be good enough to win that middle school league you're in, it won't win any league against even moderate competition. In a real league, 12.5 points from your RB1 puts you in a hole right from the start. Guaranteed 10+ with no upside is nice in the 3rd or 4th round, crap in the top 15 picks.

c. bauer 07-10-2011 08:05 pm xxx.xxx.xxx5.35 (total posts: 3)

@Sned

I had Steven Jackson last year and won my championship. Maybe its the rest of your team that blew. Consistency is a great thing. When drafting in the second half of the 1st round or the early part of the 2nd round its about obtaining a guy with a high floor. Thats exactly what Steven Jackson has. Ask someone who picked Jamaal Charles and had to suffer through watching his carries go to Thomas Jones, or Ray Rice watching him lose goal line touch to Willis Mcgehee. Work horse backs are becoming few and far between, Steven Jackson is a solid late 1st early 2nd round selection.
With the young o-line improving, McDaniels installing his offense, and Bradfords growth, there should be no reason (barring a free agent pcik up form the Rams) that Jackson should fall out of the 2nd round. Guaranteed 10+ points a week is solid.

Satan 07-10-2011 04:51 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.126 (total posts: 4)

@Sned,

I won't argue with you on one thing; Jackson definitely doesn't have the same speed he did 3 or 4 years ago. That said, he's still a physical beast who's very hard to bring down, and weren't the Rams basically starting 2 rookie lineman last year (one of their tackles was basically a "red shirt" that they drafted in the 1st round the year before)?

With the obvious improvement of Bradford, the return of Avery at WR, and any sort of blocking, that offense as a whole should be much better, at which point it's just a matter of staying healthy for S-Jax. I'd take him in the 2nd round.

Sned 07-10-2011 04:39 pm xxx.xxx.xxx7.25 (total posts: 6)

I had Steven Jackson last year and he is a bust. 3.8 YPC, 6 TD, 199 FPTS. 12 pts a week from a first rd pick is consistent mediocrity and it will not help you cash in your league. He looks VERY slow and his 330 carries last year won't make his legs any fresher. Buyer beware.

Pages: 1 23

2013 Fantasy Football Rankings - May 23

2013 NBA Mock Draft - May 22

2014 NFL Mock Draft - May 21

Charlie's 2014 NFL Mock Draft - May 20

NFL Picks - Feb. 3

2012 Fantasy Football: First-Round Bust History

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