Walter I think you're right to go back to psychology being a huge factor in picking games. I think where you error is these one-liners that mostly have to do with what happened during their last game. Take the Chargers for instance, the franchise has been slowly crumbling all season, all the fans saw it a mile away. The failed draft picks, sideline spats, injuries, losing to bad teams, frustrated QB with nobody to throw to, and a coach who has lost the locker room. These were all bigger psychological factors than whatever happened the previous game or looking ahead or whatever. The Packers finally took enough heat from the media to get pissed off enough to win a a game. They hit a tipping point before beating MIN. I think you have to look at the bigger factors that are playing into a team's motivation, if you can find them, and use those to your advantage. As a Charger fan I didn't go anywhere near that bet because I knew nobody would get up for any game until McCoy is gone. Nobody on that team cares right now, except for Rivers.
This is still my favorite site and eventhough the picks have been bad, the analysis still helps for fantasy purposes. Also, when I pair your picks up with a couple other cappers and get rid of the ones you disagree on I tend to do pretty well.
Finally, taking favorites has been brutal lately. I'm currently trying to stay away from any team favorited by more than a TD, I'll tease it if needed. There has been so much randomness that it seems like taking points with decent teams might be a good strategy.
...Yea sure Indiana U is #13th in the country, at 4-1 these guys got outplayed in the second half today (AT HOME) and only missed the cover by 10.5 points.. Yikes and another teaser loss. I had KY -16.5 in that Indy debacle and I'm now moving them to another teaser play. This is what I have left for today in college basketball: Three team teaser with: Maryland -4, Kansas -1, NC -2.5. Another: Vandy -2.5, KY -16.5, one open. Can't find anything else in NBA..so just GST -9 today to close out a teaser play. NHL: I'm taking Dallas -175 to close out 2 different pars that have already been reduced now to a two team par, (Patriot -7 push last night.) Hedging with Ottawa +155 on the comeback. GLTA tonight.
Last update: Friday, April 27, 2012, 5:40 p.m. This is a 2012 NFL Mock Re-Draft of Rounds 2 and 3 for Friday evening's NFL Draft coverage. With all of the trades that will go down, I don't expect to get many of these right (I nailed five in my Re-Draft Round 2 last year), but it's still fun to speculate where the top prospects will go on Day 2 of the 2012 NFL Draft.
St. Louis Rams: Rueben Randle, WR, LSU
The Rams just missed out on Justin Blackmon and Michael Floyd. They're going to have to take a receiver sooner or later.
Indianapolis Colts: Coby Fleener, TE, Stanford
When teams draft a quarterback early, they typically like to complement their new signal-caller with some protection or a play-maker. Think Matthew Stafford-Brandon Pettigrew, Sam Bradford-Rodger Saffold, Christian Ponder-Kyle Rudolph, and so on. The cupboard is pretty bare on offense in Indianapolis, so the front office needs to provide Andrew Luck with some help.
So, why not Luck's former teammate? This is a slam dunk if Coby Fleener somehow falls out of Round 1. The Colts really need a tight end with Dallas Clark and Jacob Tamme both gone.
Baltimore Ravens: Peter Konz, C/G, Wisconsin
Peter Konz fills a big need. Matt Birk won't be playing for much longer, so Baltimore needs a successor. In the meantime, Konz can play at guard as Ben Grubbs' replacement.
Denver Broncos: Kendall Reyes, DT, Connecticut
The Broncos do know that Peyton Manning is nearing retirement right? Maybe they'll draft someone to help him this weekend.
Cleveland Browns: Stephen Hill, WR, Georgia Tech
ESPN's Bob Holtzman reported Friday that Stephen Hill is the No. 3 receiver on Cleveland's board. The Browns really need to find a receiver for Brandon Weeden.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Josh Robinson, CB/KR, Central Florida
The Jaguars found their receiver. Now they can address the cornerback and defensive end positions on Day 2.
St. Louis Rams: Janoris Jenkins, CB, North Alabama
Janoris Jenkins is definitely worth taking a flier on in the second round. He's had major character issues in the past, but seems to have turned his life around. If he truly has, the Rams will be getting a top-15 talent with their second selection on Day 2. Besides, the Titans took chances on shady individuals when Jeff Fisher was coaching them.
Carolina Panthers: Jerel Worthy, DT, Michigan State
The Panthers passed on Fletcher Cox at No. 9, so maybe they'll address their glaring defensive tackle need in Round 2.
Buffalo Bills: Cordy Glenn, G/OT, Georgia
The Bills passed on Riley Reiff because they wanted someone long who could anchor. Cordy Glenn fits that profile.
Miami Dolphins: Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford
As I wrote above, teams that draft quarterbacks usually like to complement them with a target or a blocker. There's a major hole on the right side of Miami's offensive line.
Seattle Seahawks: Bobby Wagner, LB, Utah State
I can't even guess what the Seahawks are going to do. Ugh. Much more on this in my 2012 NFL Draft Day 1 Thoughts.
Kansas City Chiefs: Amini Silatolu, G/OT, Midwestern State
The Chiefs passed on David DeCastro, but they can grab their guard here.
St. Louis Rams: Lamar Miller, RB, Miami
The Rams picked up Cadillac Williams and Jerious Norwood, but both players flopped. A successor for Steven Jackson (and in the short term, insurance in the event of an injury) is still needed.
Jeff Fisher discussed how much he still values running backs recently, so there's a good chance he'll take one early in the 2012 NFL Draft.
Philadelphia Eagles: Vinny Curry, DE, Marshall
I doubt Andy Reid is done upgrading his defensive line. He could draft a pass-rusher just in case Brandon Graham doesn't recover.
New York Jets: Andre Branch, DE/OLB, Clemson
Quinton Coples was drafted last night, but he's expected to play on the defensive line. The Jets still need help at rush linebacker.
New England Patriots: Casey Hayward, CB, Vanderbilt
The Patriots will want to spend one of their remaining selections on a cornerback. They've shown lots of interest in Casey Hayward.
San Diego Chargers: Brandon Boykin, CB, Georgia
It's hard to believe, but Quentin Jammer will be 33 a couple of months after the 2012 NFL Draft. Norv Turner discussed possibly moving Jammer to safety sometime down the road.
Chicago Bears: Alshon Jeffery, WR, South Carolina
The Bears signed Brandon Marshall, but they still need a No. 2 receiver. Alshon Jeffery is a steal down here.
Philadelphia Eagles: Trumaine Johnson, CB/FS, Montana
The Eagles traded Asante Samuel away a couple of days ago, so they'll need to replenish their cornerback depth.
Tennessee Titans: Devon Still, DT, Penn State
The Titans shocked everyone by not getting defensive line in the first round. They can make up for it here.
Cincinnati Bengals: Courtney Upshaw, DE, Alabama
Marvin Lewis loves Courtney Upshaw. No Bengal defensive end had more than seven sacks last year, so this is an area that Cincinnati will be thinking about upgrading. Upshaw is one of the top prospects on the board, so this would be a really good pick.
Detroit Lions: Mike Adams, OT, Ohio State
Didn't the Lions just draft a tackle? Sure, but they need two. Gosder Cherilus, who is in his walk year, was benched multiple times last season.
Atlanta Falcons: Kelechi Osemele, G, Iowa State
The Falcons have to make two upgrades to the offensive line (left tackle, right guard). They've shown a ton of interest in Kelechi Osemele.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Bobby Massie, OT, Ole Miss
Ben Roethlisberger is constantly knocked around, so the Steelers really need to make an effort to bolster the offensive front so he doesn't have to take as much punishment going forward. If he keeps taking nasty hits, his career will end much sooner than it should.
Denver Broncos: Brandon Thompson, DT, Clemson
The Broncos could easily go with two defensive tackles in the first couple of rounds. That's how desperate they are at the position. I wouldn't say they're locked into doing this, but Brandon Thompson is the top player available who makes sense for Denver.
Houston Texans: Mitchell Schwartz, OT, California
The Texans will start Rashad Butler at right tackle in the wake of Eric Winston's departure, but they'd be crazy not to find some competition for him.
Green Bay Packers: Derek Wolfe, DE/DT, Cincinnati
Green Bay could look at a five-tech early in the 2012 NFL Draft. Jarius Wynn isn't bad, but he's not very good either, while Mike Neal can't seem to stay healthy. Neal struggled since coming back anyway.
Baltimore Ravens: Mychal Kendricks, ILB, California
Ozzie Newsome indicated that he'll be looking for Ray Lewis' successor this upcoming April. Mychal Kendricks, the reigning Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year, proved scouts wrong by showing off his unbelievable athleticism at the Combine.
San Francisco 49ers: Brandon Brooks, G, Miami of Ohio
The 49ers apparently were deciding between a guard and a receiver at No. 30. Here's the former position.
New England Patriots: Zach Brown, LB, North Carolina
The Patriots were obviously expected to add a pass-rushing linebacker early in the 2012 NFL Draft. They're also seeking a smaller linebacker who can cover. Zach Brown was once considered a first-round prospect, so he offers tremendous value here.
New York Giants: Dwayne Allen, TE, Clemson
Jake Ballard was a decent tight end, but he tore his ACL. The Giants needed competition at the position anyway. They signed Martellus Bennett, but that was just to a 1-year deal.