Walt, you need to put Texas LT Connor Williams on this list. Dude is going to be one of the best LT's in this class. He'll be a JR this year, but former TE with outstanding movement and pass blocking skills. Dude is a stud and Freshman All-American. First time in a while I've been excited for our Offensive line.
THIS IS NOT A 2012 NFL MOCK DRAFT. Click the link to see my real 2012 NFL Mock Draft. This is a 2012 NFL Not Draft - a compilation of popular mock picks that, in my opinion, will not happen. For the record, I was wrong about three things in my 2011 Not Mock (which means they did happen).
For the record, PFT readjusted this selection to Luck in its next update. The only way Luck isn't the No. 1 choice is if he tears his ACL or gets abducted by aliens prior to the 2012 NFL Draft.
Washington Redskins: Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford
If Robert Griffin isn't the Colts' pick, then Andrew Luck won't be Washington's choice - though I guess you can't count out the aliens stealing the Stanford prospect so they can anally probe him. Let's move on to something more interesting.
Minnesota Vikings: Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU
Rumor has it that general manager Rick Spielman will screw this pick up. Adam Schefter is leaning toward Justin Blackmon with this selection. Conventional wisdom (and pure common sense) says Matt Kalil will be the choice. Some people think Morris Claiborne will be Minnesota's man, but he doesn't make much sense. The Vikings run a Cover-2, so why would they draft a cornerback this high? Spielman gushed over Claiborne, so that's an indication that he won't take him. Why else would he praise him?
Cleveland Browns: Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State
The Cleveland Plain Dealer's Mary Kay Cabot has the Browns selecting Justin Blackmon, but I just don't see it. He's not a better prospect than Trent Richardson or Morris Claiborne, and he doesn't satisfy Cleveland's dire need for a franchise quarterback like Ryan Tannehill. Also, Mike Holmgren doesn't believe that he needs elite receivers for his West Coast offense. I'll be shocked if this pick isn't either Richardson or Tannehill.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Michael Brockers, DT, LSU
Pro Football Talk has the Buccaneers picking Michael Brockers in its latest mock, so he's an obvious choice for this "not" pick. I can't imagine a scenario in which Tampa would pick Brockers. He wouldn't be the best player on the board (like Trent Richardson or Morris Claiborne) and I don't see why general manager Mark Dominik would give up on 2010 second-round pick Brian Price this quickly. The former UCLA defensive tackle hasn't done much in the NFL, but I figure Dominik will give him at least one more shot, though I'm sure he'll add competition in Rounds 2-5.
St. Louis Rams: Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama
The Rams allegedly love Trent Richardson, but I'm listing him as a "not" pick because he won't last until the sixth selection. I definitely wouldn't rule out St. Louis trading up for him though.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina
The Jaguars dislike Quinton Coples. This is not surprising in the slightest, given that he doesn't have the motor that Gene Smith likes out of his defensive linemen. Stephon Gilmore, slotted here by Peter King, also won't be the choice.
Miami Dolphins: Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina
There's no obvious "not" pick here. The best player I could come up with was Quinton Coples for two reasons. First, I'll be shocked if Coples goes in the top eight given the questions about his motor and work ethic. Second, if the Dolphins plan on running a 4-3/3-4 hybrid defense, where would Coples fit in with the latter scheme? Coples can definitely play five-technique in a 3-4, but Miami is stacked at that position. Melvin Ingram makes more sense for the Dolphins if they're targeting a pass-rusher across from Cameron Wake.
Carolina Panthers: Dontari Poe, NT, Memphis
I'll admit that I overreacted to Dontari Poe's amazing Combine performance. I slotted him here right after his workout in Indianapolis. Poe has immense upside, but his mediocre tape will likely keep him out of the top 10. Fletcher Cox, Luke Kuechly and Stephon Gilmore are more likely to be chosen at No. 9.
Buffalo Bills: Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa
Wait, wait, wait, don't I have Riley Reiff going to the Bills in my current 2012 NFL Mock Draft? Yes, but not for long. I'm going to change the pick very soon. Here's why this selection won't be Reiff:
1. Chan Gailey said he wants long offensive tackles who can anchor. Riley Reiff's arms are short, so he doesn't fit the description.
2. Gailey and Buddy Nix marveled at the depth at the position in the 2012 NFL Draft. Gailey also said that Chris Hairston did a good job at left tackle last year, which is fairly true. Buffalo will probably select a tackle in Rounds 2-4 to provide competition with Hairston.
3. The Bills did not bring Reiff in for a pre-draft visit. They did so with C.J. Spiller two years ago and they took him. Why wouldn't they ask Reiff to come in?
4. Buffalo loves to pick players from the southeast part of the country. In fact, nearly everyone they've brought in for a visit is from the southeast.
So, who will the pick be? I think I know who it'll be, so check back in a couple of days.
Kansas City Chiefs: Luke Kuechly, ILB, Boston College
Many mocks have Luke Kuechly going to Kansas City. It's possible that Kuechly could be the best player on Scott Pioli's board by a long shot, and he would be the pick in that scenario. However, these mocks are reasoning that Kuechly satisfies a need. He doesn't, and only those who don't pay attention to the Chiefs would think so. Jovan Belcher is a good player next to Derrick Johnson. He won't go to a Pro Bowl or anything, but he's a solid complement, and the team likes him.
The Kansas City Star's Kent Babb agrees: "Kuechly remains an option, but ILB isn't a huge need. Not enough to pass on a big-time guard. Plus, it's interesting he didn't visit KC."
Seattle Seahawks: Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M
All the reports indicate that Pete Carroll is smitten with Ryan Tannehill, but this is not happening. The Seahawks didn't pay all of that money to Matt Flynn to draft Tannehill. I can't imagine Tannehill falling past the Dolphins anyway.
Arizona Cardinals: Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford
I'm listing Jonathan Martin here because he won the vote in the 2012 Reader NFL Mock Draft. Arizona's front office reportedly doesn't like him, and he isn't a very good fit for the Cardinals' blocking scheme anyway.
Dallas Cowboys: Courtney Upshaw, DE/OLB, Alabama
Courtney Upshaw is popularly mocked to the Cowboys, but the pick doesn't make much sense to me. Why would Dallas spend a first-round choice on a rush linebacker right after franchising Anthony Spencer? This selection is more likely to be Dontari Poe, Mark Barron or Dre Kirkpatrick. The Cowboys will obtain some competition for Spencer on Day 2. They like Oklahoma's Ronnell Lewis.
Philadelphia Eagles: Mark Barron, SS, Alabama
This is another common mock selection that doesn't make much sense to me. First of all, Andy Reid has only spent first-round selections on the following positions: quarterback, wide receiver, offensive line, defensive line and cornerback. He doesn't value the ancillary positions as much. Second, why would Reid give up on 2011 second-round pick Jaiquwan Jarrett so quickly? Adding a veteran like Yeremiah Bell to compete with Jarrett is a much more logical move.
New York Jets: Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame
I couldn't think of a "not" pick for the No. 16 slot, so I'll just copy what Rich Cimini wrote. Cimini covers the Jets for ESPN New York, so he knows them better than most people. He wrote Sunday that he doesn't think the Jets will take Floyd if he falls to them. Floyd is definitely talented enough to be the choice, but perhaps Rex Ryan doesn't want another troubled receiver on the roster. I can't exactly blame him.