Here's my analysis on the Redskins/Giants game...all of my picks are free at www.blackboxsports.net ... I might post my Denver play later as well, but it's up on the site if you're interested. Good luck to all the gamblohrs in here!
The Giants have put up quite a few points this season, but have had a relatively easy schedule thus far, at least in terms of defenses they’ve played. In fact, the highest ranked defense they’ve played recently was the Patriots (7th), who held them to 26 pts. That said, the Redskins don’t qualify as having a good, or even average defense themselves, as they currently rank 31st in our Power Rankings, with a pitiful power rating of 20 (out of a 100). They can’t stop the run at all, allowing 4.8 YPC this season (t-2nd last), and also have a hard time against the pass, allowing 7.7 YPA this season. They also can’t get to the QB, and are allowing a 109 QBR and a whopping 6.4 YPP (yards per play) over the last 6 weeks….they’re just pitiful. While the Giants probably won’t be able to take advantage on the ground, Eli and company will certainly take advantage aerially.
On the other side, the Redskins do have some hope. The Giants rank in the middle of the pack at stopping the run, which will be important in this game as the Redskins try to control the clock with Matt Jones and Alfred Morris. If they can keep Cousins in manageable down and distances, I like their chances of putting up a ton of points themselves. The Giants D, despite being ranked 23rd in our Power Rankings, are allowing 6.6 YPP over the last 6 weeks (worse than the Redskins) and, despite JPP playing a lot better than expected off an amputated finger, still struggle to get any pressure on the QB (I’m not buying the Patriots game – Brady has been under duress all season).
This game is shaping up to be a back and forth affair, so I like taking the home team with the free FG. I also like the situational angles here, as the Redskins are coming off a blow-out defeat to the Panthers, while the Giants are coming off a very tight loss to the undefeated Pats, and are also off a bye, which explains why this spread is moving in the direction of the Giants. The whole point of the Model is to cut thru all the noise, public bias, media hype and other crap that can move a line, so I’m not surprised it’s saying the Redskins are undervalued right now. The standard method for recommending units likes the Skins for 2 units (see above in the Statistical Model section), and so does the new method. I’m sticking with 2 units on the Redskins.
LINE MOVEMENT: This line has dropped to 2.5, indicating the professional bettors are all over the Redskins. I still like the skins for 2 units, even at 2.5, but I'm going to hold out and see if 3 pops back up again. We're not risking much by doing this, since the worst case scenario is the line moves down to 2, which isn't a big deal.
OVER-UNDER: I don't normally play over-unders, but for whatever reason I'm trying it this week for a few games. This total doesn't make sense to me - 47? Both teams can put up 30+, and a 28-24 final would actually be on the low side to me. I'm going with 1 unit on the Over.
FINAL BET: This line has dropped to +2..I'm locking this in for 2 units.
INJURY UPDATES: I don't normally post all the injuries, but considering a lot of people are scared to take the Redskins, I decided to give an update. The Giants have 2 key injuries on their Offensive Line - G Justin Pugh and C Weston Richburg (who is having a stellar season). Center is so important, so the latter is really going to hurt.
I did this last year, and I thought it would be pretty fun to do it again. It's what it sounds like - if free agency occurred in a draft format, who would be the top picks? I've excluded all the free agents who are either restricted or franchised, with the two exceptions being Mike Wallace and DeSean Jackson, for obvious reasons.
Cincinnati Bengals: Brandon Lloyd, WR, Rams. Age: 31.
Jerome Simpson does two things in his life: He makes acrobatic leaps into the end zone and gets arrested. He's done in Cincinnati, so the Bengals will have to find a new No. 2 wideout for Andy Dalton.
I should note that I wasn't sure whether to slate the Raiders or Bengals in this spot. If Oakland gets to "draft" a free agent, it might go with center Chris Myers to replace Samson Satele.
San Diego Chargers: Marques Colston, WR, Saints. Age: 29.
The Chargers lose Vincent Jackson in this scenario, so they'll be searching for a new No. 1 wideout. There's a chance Marques Colston could be a product of Sean Payton's system, but I'm sure he'll do fine with Philip Rivers (Frey).
Chicago Bears: Jared Gaither, OT, Chargers. Age: 26.
The Bears won't be spending a first-round pick on another offensive tackle, but if they could get a proven blocker like Jared Gaither, I think they would do it. Protecting Jay Cutler is the No. 1 priority.
Tennessee Titans: Red Bryant, DT, Seahawks. Age: 28.
Jurrell Casey had a dynamic rookie year, but the Titans don't have any every-down player capable of starting next to him. Sen'Derrick Marks isn't very good, while Karl Klug is just a pass-rushing specialist.
Cincinnati Bengals: Michael Bush, RB, Raiders. Age: 28.
The Bengals have been linked to Michael Bush in free agency, so why not slot him to them in this free agency mock draft? I think Bush is a bit overrated, but he would undoubtedly be an upgrade over Cedric Benson.
St. Louis Rams: Mario Manningham, WR, Giants. Age: 26.
The Rams need many things - one of which is a top-notch receiver for Sam Bradford. Mario Manningham could easily be a bust free-agent signing, but St. Louis is desperate.
Detroit Lions: David Hawthorne, ILB, Seahawks. Age: 27.
David Hawthorne isn't as good as Stephen Tulloch, but he would be a capable replacement in a back seven currently lacking in talent.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Paul Soliai, NT, Dolphins. Age: 28.
Casey Hampton's great career is coming to an end. The Steelers wouldn't hesitate to grab a relatively young nose tackle to be Hampton's replacement.
Denver Broncos: DeSean Jackson, WR, Eagles. Age: 25.
It's late enough for a team to take a chance on DeSean Jackson. Tim Tebow has underrated deep accuracy, so it would be fun watching him airing it out to the former Eagle wideout.
Houston Texans: Chris Myers, C/G, Texans. Age: 30.
I'll let the Texans re-sign Chris Myers. They probably won't be able to retain him in real life because he'll get a large contract elsewhere, but this is not real life (in case you couldn't tell).
New England Patriots: Kendall Langford, DT, Dolphins. Age: 26.
What I wrote in my 2012 NFL Mock Draft applies: Here's one of many front-seven upgrades the Patriots will need to make. With Albert Haynesworth gone, they need to address the front line.
Green Bay Packers: Cory Redding, DE/DT, Ravens. Age: 31.
Like the Patriots, the Packers need to address the defensive end and rush linebacker positions. Cory Redding is the top option available who makes sense for Green Bay.
Baltimore Ravens: Dan Connor, ILB, Panthers. Age: 26.
Ozzie Newsome wants a successor for Ray Lewis. How about Dan Connor? He's young and talented, and unless the Steelers pass on Dont'a Hightower, Newsome won't be able to find his next blue-chip inside linebacker.
San Francisco 49ers: Pierre Garcon, WR, Colts. Age: 26.
The 49ers are desperate for receiver help. It's either Pierre Garcon or Reggie Wayne, but the former is younger and has much more upside at this point.
New England Patriots: Reggie Wayne, WR, Colts. Age: 33.
Doesn't this seem like something Bill Belichick would do? He has a penchant for signing older receivers because his offense is so complex. Unlike Chad Ochocinco and Torry Holt, Reggie Wayne still can play at a high level. He's not the receiver he used to be, but he can still be a very effective No. 2.
New York Giants: Evan Mathis, G, Eagles. Age: 30.
The Giants can plug their hole at left guard while taking a player away from the hated Eagles.
2012 NFL Free Agency Draft - Next 10:
St. Louis Rams: Jason Jones, DT, Titans. Age: 26.
Indianapolis Colts: Sione Pouha, NT, Jets. Age: 33.