Here's my analysis on the Redskins/Giants game...all of my picks are free at www.blackboxsports.net ... I might post my Denver play later as well, but it's up on the site if you're interested. Good luck to all the gamblohrs in here!
The Giants have put up quite a few points this season, but have had a relatively easy schedule thus far, at least in terms of defenses they’ve played. In fact, the highest ranked defense they’ve played recently was the Patriots (7th), who held them to 26 pts. That said, the Redskins don’t qualify as having a good, or even average defense themselves, as they currently rank 31st in our Power Rankings, with a pitiful power rating of 20 (out of a 100). They can’t stop the run at all, allowing 4.8 YPC this season (t-2nd last), and also have a hard time against the pass, allowing 7.7 YPA this season. They also can’t get to the QB, and are allowing a 109 QBR and a whopping 6.4 YPP (yards per play) over the last 6 weeks….they’re just pitiful. While the Giants probably won’t be able to take advantage on the ground, Eli and company will certainly take advantage aerially.
On the other side, the Redskins do have some hope. The Giants rank in the middle of the pack at stopping the run, which will be important in this game as the Redskins try to control the clock with Matt Jones and Alfred Morris. If they can keep Cousins in manageable down and distances, I like their chances of putting up a ton of points themselves. The Giants D, despite being ranked 23rd in our Power Rankings, are allowing 6.6 YPP over the last 6 weeks (worse than the Redskins) and, despite JPP playing a lot better than expected off an amputated finger, still struggle to get any pressure on the QB (I’m not buying the Patriots game – Brady has been under duress all season).
This game is shaping up to be a back and forth affair, so I like taking the home team with the free FG. I also like the situational angles here, as the Redskins are coming off a blow-out defeat to the Panthers, while the Giants are coming off a very tight loss to the undefeated Pats, and are also off a bye, which explains why this spread is moving in the direction of the Giants. The whole point of the Model is to cut thru all the noise, public bias, media hype and other crap that can move a line, so I’m not surprised it’s saying the Redskins are undervalued right now. The standard method for recommending units likes the Skins for 2 units (see above in the Statistical Model section), and so does the new method. I’m sticking with 2 units on the Redskins.
LINE MOVEMENT: This line has dropped to 2.5, indicating the professional bettors are all over the Redskins. I still like the skins for 2 units, even at 2.5, but I'm going to hold out and see if 3 pops back up again. We're not risking much by doing this, since the worst case scenario is the line moves down to 2, which isn't a big deal.
OVER-UNDER: I don't normally play over-unders, but for whatever reason I'm trying it this week for a few games. This total doesn't make sense to me - 47? Both teams can put up 30+, and a 28-24 final would actually be on the low side to me. I'm going with 1 unit on the Over.
FINAL BET: This line has dropped to +2..I'm locking this in for 2 units.
INJURY UPDATES: I don't normally post all the injuries, but considering a lot of people are scared to take the Redskins, I decided to give an update. The Giants have 2 key injuries on their Offensive Line - G Justin Pugh and C Weston Richburg (who is having a stellar season). Center is so important, so the latter is really going to hurt.
Last update: Saturday, April 28, 2012.
This is a 2012 NFL Mock Re-Draft of Rounds 4 and 5 for Saturday's NFL Draft coverage. With all of the trades that will go down, I don't expect to get many of these right, but it's still fun to speculate where the top prospects will go on Day 3 of the 2012 NFL Draft.
St. Louis Rams: Marvin McNutt, WR, Iowa
The Rams could use more than one wide out and have shown interest in McNutt.
Pick change; previously Sean Spence, OLB
San Francisco 49ers: Brandon Boykin, CB, Georgia
The 49ers could use help at cornerback, and Boykin provides nice depth.
Pick change; previously Dwight Bentley, CB (IND)
Baltimore Ravens: Cam Johnson, DE, Virginia
The Ravens go with the best player available and have shown interest in Johnson.
Pick change; previously Mike Martin, DT/DE (MIN)
Houston Texans: George Iloka, S, Boise State
The Texans could use depth at safety and are brought Iloka in for a visit.
Cleveland Browns: DeQuan Menzie, CB, Alabama
The Browns grab a cornerback to pair with Joe Haden.
Pick change; previously Jamell Fleming, CB
Denver Broncos: Juron Criner, WR, Arizona
Denver adds more depth at receiver and weapon for Manning to work with.
Pick change; previously Tony Bergstrom, G (JAX)
Washington Redskins: Robert Turbin, RB, Utah State
The Redskins like mid-round running backs, and Turbin went in for a visit.
Miami Dolphins: Marvin Jones, WR, California
The Dolphins get a nice value pick in Jones. Miami needs receiver help.
Pick change; previously Jake Bequette, DE
Carolina Panthers: Chase Minnifield, CB, Virginia
The Panthers need help at corner and could use more than one.
Buffalo Bills: Kirk Cousins, QB, Michigan State
The Bills add a backup quarterback who will work well with Chan Gailey.
Pick change; previously Russell Wilson, QB
Seattle Seahawks: Chris Polk, RB, Washington
Seattle could use some depth at running back.
Pick change; previously Bernard Pierce, RB
Kansas City Chiefs: Ryan Steed, CB, Furman
Kansas City could use some depth in the secondary and previously brought Steed in for a visit.
Denver Broncos: Alfonzo Dennard, CB, Nebraska
The Broncos could stand to fortify their defensive backs, especially after cutting Andre Goodson.
Washington Redskins: Bobby Massie, OT, Ole Miss
The Redskins need tackle help, and Massie is a great fit for their offense.
Pick change; previously Donald Stephenson, OT
San Diego Chargers: Zebrie Sanders, OT, Florida State
The Chargers could use some help at tackle and Sanders is nice value.
Pick change; previously Tavon Wilson, S
Chicago Bears: Keenan Robinson, OLB, Texas
The Bears were said to be really interested in Robinson and could use linebacker depth.
Arizona Cardinals: Emmanuel Acho, ILB/OLB, Texas
The Cardinals could use some depth at linebacker and are able to reunite the Acho brothers. Sam Acho had a nice debut for Arizona in 2011.
Dallas Cowboys: Philip Blake, C/G, Baylor
The Cowboys need help at center.
Seattle Seahawks: Orson Charles, TE, Georgia
The Seahawks could use another tight end for double tight end sets.
Pick change; previously Kirk Cousins, QB (PHI)
Tennessee Titans: Mike Brewster, C, Ohio State
Tennessee could use a young center to pair with veteran free agent-addition Steve Hutchinson.
Cincinnati Bengals: Ben Jones, C, Georgia
The Bengals have interest in Jones and have brought him in for a pre-draft visit.
Detroit Lions: David Molk, C, Michigan
The Lions grab a center who could be Dominic Raiola's eventual replacement. Now in this draft the Lions may have acquired a long-term center, guard and left tackle.
Minnesota Vikings: Billy Winn, DE/DT, Boise State
The Vikings could use help on the interior of their line.
Pick change; previously Josh Kaddu, OLB (CLE)
Pittsburgh Steelers: David Paulson, TE, Oregon
The Steelers could use some help at tight end and are interested in Paulson. They brought him in to Pittsburgh for a visit.
Cleveland Browns: Josh Kaddu, OLB, Oregon
The Browns could use another linebacker to pair with D'Qwell Jackson and Chris Gocong. The team brought in Kaddu for a pre-draft visit.
Houston Texans: Ron Brooks, CB, LSU
The Texans could look for corner depth and are interested in Brooks.
New Orleans Saints: Nigel Bradham, OLB, Florida State
The Saints select a fast and physical defender to fortify their linebackers.
Philadelphia Eagles: Josh Norman, CB, Coastal Carolina
The Eagles haven't drafted a cornerback yet.
Pick change; previously Markelle Martin, S (GB)
Buffalo Bills: Tank Carder, ILB/OLB, TCU
The Bills could use some help in the linebackers and are interested in Carder. He made a visit to Buffalo.
Pick change; previously DeQuan Menzie, CB
San Francisco 49ers: Antonio Allen, S, South Carolina
The 49ers could use some depth in the secondary.
Houston Texans: Chris Rainey, RB/WR, Florida
Here, the Texans can get an offensive and special teams weapon.
New York Giants: Trevor Guyton, DE, California
The Giants could use a young end for depth and Guyton is the best available.
Minnesota Vikings: James Hanna, TE, Oklahoma
The Vikings get some tight end depth and have brought Hanna in for a visit.
Oakland Raiders: Brandon Mosley, OT, Auburn
The Raiders could use some more depth on the offensive line.
Baltimore Ravens: Levy Adcock, OT/G, Oklahoma State
The Ravens could use more depth on the offensive line.
New York Giants: Omar Bolden, CB, Arizona State
The Giants could use more depth at corner and hosted Bolden on a pre-draft visit.
Green Bay Packers: Markelle Martin, S, Oklahoma State
The Packers released Nick Collins, so they grab a quality safety to replace him.
Green Bay Packers: Gino Gradkowski, G/C, Delaware
The Packers lost Scott Wells in free agency and Jeff Saturday is just a short-term fill in. Green Bay likes Gradkowski and has hosted him on a visit.
Minnesota Vikings: Shaun Prater, CB, Iowa
The Vikings get some secondary help as Prater would be a great scheme fit.
Dallas Cowboys: Ronnell Lewis, OLB/DE, Oklahoma
I can't fathom how Ronnell Lewis has made it to the third day, and he could be a big time steal.