Here's my analysis on the Redskins/Giants game...all of my picks are free at www.blackboxsports.net ... I might post my Denver play later as well, but it's up on the site if you're interested. Good luck to all the gamblohrs in here!
The Giants have put up quite a few points this season, but have had a relatively easy schedule thus far, at least in terms of defenses they’ve played. In fact, the highest ranked defense they’ve played recently was the Patriots (7th), who held them to 26 pts. That said, the Redskins don’t qualify as having a good, or even average defense themselves, as they currently rank 31st in our Power Rankings, with a pitiful power rating of 20 (out of a 100). They can’t stop the run at all, allowing 4.8 YPC this season (t-2nd last), and also have a hard time against the pass, allowing 7.7 YPA this season. They also can’t get to the QB, and are allowing a 109 QBR and a whopping 6.4 YPP (yards per play) over the last 6 weeks….they’re just pitiful. While the Giants probably won’t be able to take advantage on the ground, Eli and company will certainly take advantage aerially.
On the other side, the Redskins do have some hope. The Giants rank in the middle of the pack at stopping the run, which will be important in this game as the Redskins try to control the clock with Matt Jones and Alfred Morris. If they can keep Cousins in manageable down and distances, I like their chances of putting up a ton of points themselves. The Giants D, despite being ranked 23rd in our Power Rankings, are allowing 6.6 YPP over the last 6 weeks (worse than the Redskins) and, despite JPP playing a lot better than expected off an amputated finger, still struggle to get any pressure on the QB (I’m not buying the Patriots game – Brady has been under duress all season).
This game is shaping up to be a back and forth affair, so I like taking the home team with the free FG. I also like the situational angles here, as the Redskins are coming off a blow-out defeat to the Panthers, while the Giants are coming off a very tight loss to the undefeated Pats, and are also off a bye, which explains why this spread is moving in the direction of the Giants. The whole point of the Model is to cut thru all the noise, public bias, media hype and other crap that can move a line, so I’m not surprised it’s saying the Redskins are undervalued right now. The standard method for recommending units likes the Skins for 2 units (see above in the Statistical Model section), and so does the new method. I’m sticking with 2 units on the Redskins.
LINE MOVEMENT: This line has dropped to 2.5, indicating the professional bettors are all over the Redskins. I still like the skins for 2 units, even at 2.5, but I'm going to hold out and see if 3 pops back up again. We're not risking much by doing this, since the worst case scenario is the line moves down to 2, which isn't a big deal.
OVER-UNDER: I don't normally play over-unders, but for whatever reason I'm trying it this week for a few games. This total doesn't make sense to me - 47? Both teams can put up 30+, and a 28-24 final would actually be on the low side to me. I'm going with 1 unit on the Over.
FINAL BET: This line has dropped to +2..I'm locking this in for 2 units.
INJURY UPDATES: I don't normally post all the injuries, but considering a lot of people are scared to take the Redskins, I decided to give an update. The Giants have 2 key injuries on their Offensive Line - G Justin Pugh and C Weston Richburg (who is having a stellar season). Center is so important, so the latter is really going to hurt.
Last update: Saturday, April 30, 2011, 3:20 PM. This is a 2011 NFL Mock Re-Draft of Rounds 4 and 5 for Saturday's NFL Draft coverage. With all of the trades that will go down, I don't expect to get many of these right; in fact, I'll be thrilled if I nail one or two correctly. But it's still fun to speculate where the top prospects will go on Day 3 of the 2011 NFL Draft.
Carolina Panthers: Julius Thomas, TE, Portland State
The Panthers just signed Jeremy Shockey, but they need a long-term answer at the position. The Saints drafted a basketball player to groom behind Shockey, and I'd say that worked out pretty well.
Buffalo Bills: D.J. Williams, TE, Arkansas
Shawn Nelson has been a big disappointment at tight end. Buffalo needs to give Andy Dalton an intermediate weapon to work with.
Cincinnati Bengals: Robert Sands, S, West Virginia
The Bengals could stand to upgrade the safety position. Robert Sands is a great fit for Mike Zimmer's scheme.
Kansas City Chiefs: Delone Carter, RB, Syracuse
Thomas Jones, 33 in August, is owed $3 million in 2011. He wasn't very effective this past season, so even though the Chiefs said they plan on bringing him back, that could be a smokescreen of some sort. If so, Delone Carter would be a very cheap alternative. Carter has drawn some comparisons to Maurice Jones-Drew.
Arizona Cardinals: Mario Harvey, ILB, Marshall
The Cardinals can use an upgrade at the inside linebacker position. Daryl Washington just had a great year, but all Arizona has next to him is a soon-to-be 34-year-old Paris Lenon.
Cleveland Browns: Jacquizz Rodgers, RB, Oregon State
Peyton Hillis wore down the stretch, while Montario Hardesty is coming off injury. The Browns need a pass-catching running back, and Jacquizz Rodgers is way too good to pass up in Round 5.
New England Patriots: Greg Romeus, DE/OLB, Pittsburgh
Greg Romeus, who has met with New England on several occasions, seems like a great fit in Bill Belichick's defense.
Romeus would be slotted much higher than this if he were healthy, but the Patriots often make selections like this. They can stash Romeus away and have him ready for 2012.
Minnesota Vikings: K.J. Wright, OLB, Mississippi State
Ben Leber is a free agent, so he'll have to be re-signed or replaced. K.J. Wright is the top player available.
Kansas City Chiefs: Jerrell Powe, NT, Ole Miss
Scott Pioli needs his Vince Wilfork. Since he didn't take Phil Taylor at No. 21, he'll have to somehow secure a nose tackle in Rounds 4-6.
San Francisco 49ers: Owen Marecic, FB, Stanford
The 49ers are definitely looking for help at the fullback position this offseason. Jim Harbaugh brings over his guy from Stanford.
Tennessee Titans: Pernell McPhee, DE, Mississippi State
Jason Babin is a 31-year-old free agent who will command a ton of money this offseason. Seeing as how the Titans will be starting from scratch, Babin will probably leave for a contender. If so, Tennessee will need help across from Derrick Morgan.
Dallas Cowboys: Marcus Cannon, G, TCU
The Cowboys reportedly like Marcus Cannon. Or at least they did prior to the unfortunate biopsy. Cannon is now a late-round prospect who will have to sit out a year. Let's hope he can make a comeback and thrive in 2012.
Washington Redskins: Tyrod Taylor, QB, Virginia Tech
The Redskins can't go into the 2011 season without a quarterback to challenge Rex Grossman... right?
St. Louis Rams: Da'Norris Searcy, S, North Carolina
The Rams take a break from upgrading their offense and find some help for their secondary. They've shown interest in Da'Norris Searcy.
Washington Redskins: Josh Thomas, CB, Buffalo
Carlos Rogers and Phillip Buchanon are both free agents. Replacements are needed here if either one walks.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Cecil Shorts, WR, Mount Union
A weapon for Blaine Gabbert. The Jaguars can't go into the 2011 season with Mike Thomas as their only reliable receiver.
Oakland Raiders: Mario Fannin, RB, Auburn
Michael Bush is a free agent. If he leaves, the Raiders will need a power back complement for Darren McFadden.
Philadelphia Eagles: Brandon Fusco, C/G, Slippery Rock
Another guard? Well, from what I'm hearing, the Eagles may move Todd Herremans out to right tackle, which would open up the left guard position.
Minnesota Vikings: Ahmad Black, SS, Florida
The Vikings need to upgrade both safety positions this offseason. Ahmad Black is one of the top talents available.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Cortez Allen, CB, The Citadel
Despite Aqib Talib's recent arrest, the Buccaneers won't go after a cornerback early. They'll look at one in the middle rounds, and someone they really like is Cortez Allen.
Washington Redskins: Stephen Schilling, G, Michigan
Someone to protect Tyrod Taylor. It's good the Redskins have four fifth-round picks which is good because they have needs everywhere.
Philadelphia Eagles: Derrick Locke, RB, Kentucky
Jerome Harrison is a free agent, so the Eagles could be in the market for a replacement.
Seattle Seahawks: Ian Williams, DT, Notre Dame
The Seahawks are thin at defensive tackle, and they've shown interest in Ian Williams.
Washington Redskins: Niles Paul, WR, Nebraska
The Redskins double dip at receiver. They're desperate at that position.
Seattle Seahawks: T.J. Yates, QB, North Carolina
The Seahawks have to bring in a quarterback to challenge Charlie Whitehurst.
Detroit Lions: Greg Jones, LB, Michigan State
Greg Jones is one of the top players available, so you know the Lions will be interested. They need help at linebacker.
Atlanta Falcons: Dwayne Harris, WR/KR, East Carolina
The Falcons might double dip at receiver even though they mortgaged their entire draft for Julio Jones. They need to find as many weapons as possible for Matt Ryan, and they have to find an upgrade in the slot.
New England Patriots: Jason Pinkston, OT/G, Pittsburgh
An offensive lineman with versatility, Jason Pinkston makes a ton of sense for the Patriots in Round 5.
Protecting Tom Brady is Belichick's first priority. Stephen Neal announced his retirement, so New England will be looking for a guard in free agency or early in the 2011 NFL Draft.
Chicago Bears: DeMarcus Love, G/OT, Arkansas
The Bears need as many upgrades on the offensive line as possible. If they lead the NFL in sacks allowed again, Jay Cutler probably won't make it through another season.
New York Jets: DeAndre McDaniel, S, Clemson
The Jets could be looking for safety help in the third day of the 2011 NFL Draft, and DeAndre McDaniel is one of the top players available.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Zach Hurd, G, Connecticut
Another offensive line upgrade for the Steelers. They can't afford to have Ben Roethlisberger knocked around on every play once again.
Green Bay Packers: Ugo Chinasa, DE/OLB, Oklahoma State
Rush linebacker is Green Bay's greatest need. Unfortunately, the team had to wait until this selection to address the position.
Baltimore Ravens: Rick Elmore, DE/OLB, Arizona
The Ravens have met with a bunch of rush linebacker prospects this offseason, including Rick Elmore, which might indicate that they're not happy with their depth behind Terrell Suggs and Jarret Johnson.
Baltimore Ravens: Kris O'Dowd, C, USC
Center is not an immediate need, but it will be in 2012 when Matt Birk is a free agent. Birk was nice enough to offer to groom his successor.