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2011 NFL Not Draft: Picks 17-32

Last update: Wednesday, April 6, 2011.

THIS IS NOT A 2011 NFL MOCK DRAFT. Click the link to see my 2011 NFL Mock Draft. This is a 2011 NFL Not Draft - a compilation of popular mock picks that, in my opinion, will not happen.

2011 NFL Not Draft: Picks 1-16

  1. New England Patriots: J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin
    J.J. Watt is a popular pick here in 2011 NFL Mock Drafts, but it's not going to happen. Bill Belichick has an incredible disdain for Watt's agent, Tom Condon, and hasn't drafted a Condon player since Ben Watson in 2004.


  2. San Diego Chargers: Any right tackle
    The mock draft community has been imploring A.J. Smith to find an upgrade over beleaguered right tackle Jeromey Clary for years.

    I personally have given up. It's clear now that Smith doesn't plan on finding a new right tackle. In fact, there's speculation that he plans on re-signing Clary. It wouldn't surprise me one bit if we learn five years from now that Clary has pictures of Smith going out on a date with Rosie O'Donnell, or something.

  3. New York Giants: Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLA
    I had a tough time figuring out whom to not mock to the Giants. Akeem Ayers was the best I could come up with.

    New York needs an upgrade at the linebacker position, but I'd be shocked if Jerry Reese reached like this. Plus, Ayers' best quality is rushing the passer, so he wouldn't be utilized properly in Perry Fewell's scheme.

  4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Da'Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson
    The Buccaneers are targeting a defensive end with the 20th pick (so Jimmy Smith is a "not" pick as well), but from what I'm hearing, they're not going to take Da'Quan Bowers. There are too many similarities between Bowers and the late Gaines Adams. Plus, Tampa Bay really likes Justin Houston and Adrian Clayborn.



  5. Kansas City Chiefs: Stefen Wisniewski, C/G, Penn State
    The Kansas City Star recently suggested that Stefen Wisniewski is in play for the 21st pick in the 2011 NFL Draft because the Penn State lineman is a Scott Pioli type of player.

    I agree with the final part of that sentence, but I'll be shocked if the Chiefs are even considering Wisniewski at No. 21. He's a second-round prospect, at best.

  6. Indianapolis Colts: Any defensive tackle
    Bill Polian sticks to his guns. He believes in drafting offensive players and defensive ends in the first round; not defensive tackles.

    Mock drafters have been imploring the Colts to upgrade the defensive tackle position for years. Polian hasn't done it for a reason; he believes he can land late-round prospects to fill that role.

  7. Philadelphia Eagles: Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College
    The Eagles are about to pay their quarterback a ton of money, so they have to make sure they protect his blind side. They'll be looking for a new right tackle this offseason. Tyron Smith (trade up), Gabe Carimi, Nate Solder and Derek Sherrod will all be in play, but not Anthony Castonzo.

    Castonzo won't be the pick because he doesn't fit Andy Reid's blocking scheme. So unless Reid suddenly changes the way his team operates, Castonzo is not in the equation.

  8. New Orleans Saints: Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLA
    "The Saints need a linebacker. Let's mock them a linebacker!"

    Yet, New Orleans never takes a linebacker. That's not by accident. Much like the Eagles (another "not" spot for Akeem Ayers), the Saints just don't value the position.



  9. Seattle Seahawks: Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas
    I don't think the Seahawks will select a quarterback in the first round of the 2011 NFL Draft. And if they do, it won't be Ryan Mallett because he's a horrible fit for Seattle's West Coast offense.

    I'm listing Mallett as a "not" pick because Peter King recently suggested it.

  10. Baltimore Ravens: Da'Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson
    I feel bad "not" mocking Da'Quan Bowers everywhere. It would be great if he has a long, healthy and great career, and proves his detractors wrong. It's just going to look bleak on Draft Day.

    Ozzie Newsome has a habit of drafting prospects who slip (i.e. Terrence Cody and Sergio Kindle). I don't think Bowers will be added to that list, however, because he's a poor fit in Baltimore's defense.

  11. Atlanta Falcons: Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa
    Thomas Dimitroff is all about drafting high-character guys. So, while defensive end is a big position of need, I don't think he'll consider Adrian Clayborn.

    Oh, and I'm definitely preparing to receive a dozen e-mails that sound like: "RABBLE RABBLE RABBLE RABBLE CLAYBORN ONLY PUNCHED A GUY CUZ HE CALLED HIM RACIST WORD BUT CLAYBORNS A NICE GUY AND HE HASNT BEEN IN TROUBLES SINCE RABBLE RABBLE RABBLE RABBLE!!!"

  12. New England Patriots: Aaron Williams, CB/FS, Texas
    Aaron Williams is yet another Tom Condon guy, so he's not on New England's big board. Bill Belichick is the type of guy who would hold a grudge for a very long time. That's probably one of the reasons why he's so successful.



  13. Chicago Bears: Jon Baldwin, WR, Pittsburgh
    When Mike Martz was head coach or the offensive coordinator for the Rams, the team drafted six wide receivers. Here are their sizes:

    5-10 180, 6-1 200, 6-0 186, 6-0 205, 6-3 207, 6-0 200.

    Martz likes short or medium-sized receivers; not big lumbering guys like Jonathan Baldwin.

  14. New York Jets: Cameron Heyward, DE/DT, Ohio State
    I don't have a strong "not" pick for the Jets, so this was the best I could do. I just can't imagine Jet fans being excited about the prospect of another Ohio State defensive end on their roster.

  15. Pittsburgh Steelers: Brandon Harris, CB, Miami
    The Steelers need a corner, so Brandon Harris is a popular pick in 2011 NFL Mock Drafts.

    Unfortunately for Harris, his stock has dropped quite a bit, beginning with his brutal performance in Miami's postseason exhibition game. Harris is now bound for the second round. Plus, he's not even a good fit for Mike Tomlin's scheme anyway. Aaron Williams makes much more sense.

  16. Green Bay Packers: Three...
    Since this is the final pick in my 2011 NFL Not Draft, I thought I'd give you three "not" picks for the Packers (only because I couldn't make up my mind).

    1. Brandon Harris, CB - Again with Brandon Harris. This is another poor scheme fit. Green Bay loves tall corners.

    2. Derek Sherrod, OT - The Packers will consider a tackle if Nate Solder or Gabe Carimi drops to them, but Derek Sherrod doesn't fit the appearance that Green Bay looks for in its linemen.

    3. Danny Watkins, G - Danny Watkins fits the appearance Green Bay is looking for - not that there's anything wrong with "not" that - but I just feel that this is way too early to draft a guy who will be 27 in November. Watkins would be a much better selection in Round 2.



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MIKE 04-06-2011 11:01 am xxx.xxx.xxx19.8 (total posts: 1)
20     20

THE OWNERS SHOULD LOCK THE PLAYERS FOR TWO YEARS BECAUSE 90% OF THE PLAYERS GET FREE RIDE TO GO TO SCHOOL BECAUSE ALL THEY KNOW HOW TO DO RUN AND JUMP HOW MANY GET A SCHOALSHIP FOR BE SMART .NO ONE SHOULD MAKE MORE THAN THE ONWERS OF ANY BUNINESS
Dan Sternberg 04-06-2011 10:22 am xxx.xxx.xxx.254 (total posts: 1)
20     15

Walt,

you are the ONLY mock that I have ever seen that takes the Tom Condon/Pats factor into account. Even the "Homers" around Boston that do their drafts are oblivious to this fact. Tom Condon has even stated publically that he only deals with 31 NFL teams.

Good work taking all the necessary factors into account.
mprofetta 04-06-2011 10:09 am xxx.xxx.xxx29.2 (total posts: 2)
15     20

I love that you're not falling for Watkins in the 1st round. Linemen typically don't fully blossom until their 3rd season and Watkins will be 30 (!!)and on the physical downslide as he enters what are supposed to be his prime years. Good player, but simply just a POOR value.
Not loving the PIT/Brandon Harris "not" pick. The most important trait for a CB in the PIT D-scheme is sure tackling ability, and regardless of his height, Harris isn't afraid to step up vs. the run and does so effectively. With the exception of Ike Taylor, 5-9 Deshea Townsend was arguably the Steelers' most reliable CB over the last 1/2 decade, so I don't think there's any "size discrimination" going on in PIT. With such a premium placed on CBs these days and such a drastic dropoff to the next tier of corners after Harris, A. Williams & J. Smith, their value will be inflated and all three will likely go in the 1st round. If anything, your candidate to be drafted by PIT (Aaron Williams)is the more logical "not" pick. The Steelers have been burned by ex-Longhorns like Tony Hills and Limas Sweed recently. Their a smart enough organization to notice a negative trend like that.
mprofetta 04-06-2011 09:44 am xxx.xxx.xxx29.2 (total posts: 2)
15     19

This is a very interesting concept. I agree with most of your "not picks". One nit-pic: It seems odd to disqualify Fairley from consideration at #6 because the Browns' braintrust "really like multi-year starters from big programs" and then list Robert Quinn, who (like Fairley) really only has one year of tape to go on, as I more likely candidate. Following your logic, Cameron Jordan would have to be a consideration for Cleveland.
Carlos 04-06-2011 08:54 am xxx.xxx.xxx3.61 (total posts: 1)
18     18

Of course the Texans have concerns about drafting CBs with consecutive #1 picks. That rumor has been out since the time Brandon Harris was the popular choice for Houston in mocks. Prince Amukamara fits into exactly what the Texans look for when drafting: senior, good athlete, and no major character concerns. Beyond Amukamara (and peterson who will not be there) there is no CB Houston would draft at #1 for the concerns you listed. It all boils down to if they have to reach for a player like they have done in the past it won't be a CB, it will more likely be an OLB.
Packer Fan 04-06-2011 08:53 am xxx.xxx.xxx6.15 (total posts: 2)
17     17

@walt- Awhile back I either wrote you an email or posted a comment about how the packers wouldn't take a 27 year old guard and you replied with something like "the packers are built to win now". That was only a month or two ago. I told you so.
The packers do like tall corners however short ones fit our scheme just fine as a matter of fact Tramon Williams and Sam Shields are both only 5'11.
Jesse 04-06-2011 07:47 am xxx.xxx.xxx.207 (total posts: 2)
16     16

So I now understand why players are being "not" mocked to different teams. Just used to the same thing when looking at a mock draft.
Doug 04-06-2011 07:44 am xxx.xxx.xxx.226 (total posts: 2)
17     16

Oh Sh**, nevermind I see what you did
Doug 04-06-2011 07:40 am xxx.xxx.xxx.226 (total posts: 2)
16     16

Why is Nick Fairley picked twice?
Jesse 04-06-2011 07:40 am xxx.xxx.xxx.207 (total posts: 2)
18     17

Hey Walt, I know you did this mock early in the morning but you have Nick Fairley slated to go to the Panthers at No. 1 overall and then again at No. 6 overall to the Browns. Not criticizing you, just pointing that out. Great work by the way.
Aaron 04-06-2011 06:06 am xxx.xxx.xxx3.13 (total posts: 2)
16     17

Whis is unlikely to get fired even after another poor season. He signed a $20M extension prior to last year and the Bidwills are not going to buy him out of two years and then pay another head coach to actually work.

Even Denny Green was given three poor seasons by the Bidwills, Whis has at least earned that. He does have room to move on this, and he will not hesitate to draft a QB if he thinks that guy translates into a Franchise QB.
Jeff 04-06-2011 06:04 am xxx.xxx.xxx3.13 (total posts: 2)
16     18

I get the feeling that Gabbert is going to be sneakily high on the Cards board. They have a tendency to take Seniors, but also bow slightly to need over value in the first round.

Gabbert fits the Cardinals offense perfectly, with lots of shotgun, quick release short and intermediate throws.

My biggest worry he is he is an underclassman, and the Cards under Whis much prefer seniors (24 or 27 picks have been seniors)

I would not have him as the "not" pick. Instead I would say they pass on Robert Quinn, he does not look fluid or comfortable dropping into coverage, and with the Cards tendency to draft Seniors I don't see this being the pick. If Miller is not there I think you see Arizona reach for a senior, maybe Amukumara.

I cannot see Shanny passing on Locker, he get a hard on for any athletic QB with a huge arm. He won two rings behind that type of QB with Elway, traded for Plummer to get the mobility there, Traded up to draft Cutler despite not working him out and he fits the mobile and huge arm trend. He then traded for Donovan McNabb with his mobility and big arm. Locker makes too much sense to not mock to the Redskins right now, even if the value there is horrible.

Not pick for the Phins, anyone who is not from the Big 10,seriously look at their past 4 drafts.

Penn State, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio State. They love the Big 10 in the first round.
BRDEMPSEY69 04-06-2011 05:26 am xxx.xxx.xxx2.22 (total posts: 1)
16     16

I agree with you Walter regarding Wisniewski at #21 for the Chiefs. That would be a major bone-headed reach. They need to take Carimi at #21, if he's there & if they pass on Carimi like they did with Russell Okung last year, then this Chiefs fan of 42 years will be turning against the current regime of Pioli/Haley and wishing them nothing but failure because it will serve them right.
Blake 04-06-2011 03:34 am xxx.xxx.xxx.130 (total posts: 1)
17     16

Awesome. I like that you actually pay attention to draft habits of decision makers instead of just giving everyone BPA at a reasonable position. It makes for a much more realistic mock draft. Great job. Poor Da'Quan...
Walter 04-06-2011 02:24 am xxx.xxx.xxx9.63 (total posts: 1)
17     16

First comment... we're going to have comment boards like this all over the site soon. We're still working out the kinks, so this is not the finished product.



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