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2011 NFL Not Draft

Last update: Wednesday, April 6, 2011.

THIS IS NOT A 2011 NFL MOCK DRAFT. Click the link to see my 2011 NFL Mock Draft. This is a 2011 NFL Not Draft - a compilation of popular mock picks that, in my opinion, will not happen.

  1. Carolina Panthers: Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
    This is a tough one because most 2011 NFL Mocks project Blaine Gabbert, Cam Newton or Marcell Dareus to the Panthers. However, I've noticed that four mocks have slated Nick Fairley No. 1 overall since April 1 (click the link for details).

    Fairley to Carolina is not going to happen. Fairley is a 1-year wonder with work ethic concerns, and he's not even the top defensive tackle in this class.


  2. Denver Broncos: Von Miller, DE/OLB, Texas A&M
    I didn't even consider Von Miller as a possible option for the Broncos until a particular sun-tanned NFL Draft analyst for ESPN mocked Miller No. 2 overall.

    I really don't understand the thought process behind that. Miller is the top 3-4 player in this class, so why mock him to a 4-3 squad? And even if Denver wants to use Miller as a pass-rushing specialist, they already have an identical player (Elvis Dumervil) to do that. This pick makes absolutely no sense to me.

  3. Buffalo Bills: Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
    I mocked Patrick Peterson into this slot about a month ago. Now, I don't think the Bills selecting Peterson is even a remote possibility.

    If Buffalo doesn't take a quarterback, the selection will be Von Miller. Chan Gailey is enamored with Miller, having coached him at the Senior Bowl.

  4. Cincinnati Bengals: Cam Newton, QB, Auburn
    There's a school of thought that the Bengals will select Cam Newton if he somehow falls to them at No. 4.

    First of all, I'll be pretty shocked if Newton makes it past both Carolina and Buffalo. And second, Newton is not a good fit for Jay Gruden's offense. Neither is Ryan Mallett. If the Bengals select a quarterback in the first round, it'll probably be Blaine Gabbert.



  5. Arizona Cardinals: Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri
    The Cardinals are not taking a quarterback in the first round. I've written this ad nauseum this offseason, and so have all the Arizona beat writers.

    Ken Whisenhunt is not going to devote tons of resources to an unproven rookie signal-caller with his job potentially on the line if he has another poor season. Instead, he'll either trade for Kevin Kolb, or sign a veteran like Donovan McNabb or Marc Bulger.

  6. Cleveland Browns: Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
    I explained this one in my 2011 NFL Mock Draft: Mike Holmgren and Tom Heckert really like multi-year starters from big programs. Nick Fairley started only one season at Auburn.

    I think Fairley is well below Patrick Peterson, A.J. Green, Robert Quinn and Julio Jones on Cleveland's board.

  7. San Francisco 49ers: Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
    OK, maybe Patrick Peterson is an option for the 49ers at No. 7. I just refuse to believe that someone of Peterson's caliber can fall to No. 7. If this happens, six NFL general managers should be ashamed of themselves. Then again, as the adage goes, stupid teams make stupid picks.

  8. Tennessee Titans: Da'Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson
    This was a tough one because the Titans don't really have that many options at No. 8 that would fill needs. Da'Quan Bowers will be available, but Tennessee isn't taking him because of his knee.



  9. Dallas Cowboys: Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama
    Believe it or not, but I've received several e-mails from people asking me if the Cowboys would consider drafting Mark Ingram. Also, eight percent of the people in our 2011 NFL Reader Mock Draft voted for Ingram in this slot.

    I can't see it happening. Only the Bills spend multiple first-round selections on running backs. Jerry Jones won't consider Ingram because he's not going to give up on Felix Jones. Plus, Ingram's not good enough to be chosen at No. 9 especially with a potentially problematic knee.

  10. Washington Redskins: Jake Locker, QB, Washington
    I don't see Jake Locker going in the first round; much less at No. 10 overall. Only one head coach showed up to Locker's Pro Day, which indicates that most teams don't have Locker rated highly on their board.

    Locker is essentially the next Jake Plummer, so he would be a good fit for Mike Shanahan's offense. Shanahan has stated that he likes Locker, which is actually a bad sign; when Shanahan drafted Jay Cutler, he didn't even work him out. I don't know why Shanahan would be so forthcoming about his opinion regarding Locker.

  11. Houston Texans: Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska
    Prince Amukamara is a popular mock selection at No. 11. The Texans really need a corner, and Amukamara is well worth the 11th pick in the 2011 NFL Draft.

    However, I know for a fact that the Texans have, what I've been told, "some concerns" about spending consecutive first-round choices on cornerbacks. Houston will probably take a corner in Rounds 2-4.

  12. Minnesota Vikings: Da'Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson
    Both CBS guys mocked Da'Quan Bowers to the Vikings in the wake of Bowers' awful Pro Day.

    I have to respectfully disagree with their projection. Bowers' knee is a huge concern, and considering how many needs they have, the Vikings just can't take a risk on the Clemson end this high in the 2011 NFL Draft.



  13. Detroit Lions: Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College
    I mocked Tyron Smith to the Lions for a while, but moved off the selection because I slotted Smith at No. 9 to the Cowboys.

    If Smith is off the board, do the Lions grab the next tackle available? I say no. Detroit will stick with its strategy - which is taking the best player on the board. I could be wrong, but I highly doubt that Castonzo is rated ahead the likes of Prince Amukamara, Aldon Smith and Cameron Jordan.

  14. St. Louis Rams: Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama
    Prior to his knee concerns, Mark Ingram was considered here. Steven Jackson only has a couple more peak years in the tank, so the thought process was that Ingram could ease the workload off Jackson.

    Even if you're not taking the knee into account, Ingram is just not a realistic option. The Rams will spend a Round 2-4 selection on a backup running back; using the No. 14 pick on one would be a waste.

  15. Miami Dolphins: Any player at No. 15
    I wrote this in my 2011 NFL Mock Draft - if there's a team I had to bet on trading its first-round selection (excluding the Patriots, of course), it would be the Dolphins. They have no second-round choice, and they have too many needs to fill.

    I'll be highly surprised if Miami makes a pick at No. 15.

  16. Jacksonville Jaguars: Aldon Smith, DE, Missouri
    Defensive end is a huge need for the Jaguars, so naturally, you're going to see plenty of 2011 NFL Mock Drafts out there that slate Aldon Smith in this spot.

    I don't see it. Gene Smith looks for multi-year starters, team captains and guys who have proven themselves on the football field at the collegiate level. Smith has immense upside, but he's far from a proven commodity, having started just 21 games at Missouri.


    Go to 2011 NFL Not Draft: Picks 17-32

    Sorry for cutting this into two halves; I've received complaints about load times and putting the mock draft on two pages saves bandwith.

Real 2011 NFL Mock Draft


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MIKE 04-06-2011 11:01 am xxx.xxx.xxx19.8 (total posts: 1)
20     20

THE OWNERS SHOULD LOCK THE PLAYERS FOR TWO YEARS BECAUSE 90% OF THE PLAYERS GET FREE RIDE TO GO TO SCHOOL BECAUSE ALL THEY KNOW HOW TO DO RUN AND JUMP HOW MANY GET A SCHOALSHIP FOR BE SMART .NO ONE SHOULD MAKE MORE THAN THE ONWERS OF ANY BUNINESS
Dan Sternberg 04-06-2011 10:22 am xxx.xxx.xxx.254 (total posts: 1)
20     15

Walt,

you are the ONLY mock that I have ever seen that takes the Tom Condon/Pats factor into account. Even the "Homers" around Boston that do their drafts are oblivious to this fact. Tom Condon has even stated publically that he only deals with 31 NFL teams.

Good work taking all the necessary factors into account.
mprofetta 04-06-2011 10:09 am xxx.xxx.xxx29.2 (total posts: 2)
15     20

I love that you're not falling for Watkins in the 1st round. Linemen typically don't fully blossom until their 3rd season and Watkins will be 30 (!!)and on the physical downslide as he enters what are supposed to be his prime years. Good player, but simply just a POOR value.
Not loving the PIT/Brandon Harris "not" pick. The most important trait for a CB in the PIT D-scheme is sure tackling ability, and regardless of his height, Harris isn't afraid to step up vs. the run and does so effectively. With the exception of Ike Taylor, 5-9 Deshea Townsend was arguably the Steelers' most reliable CB over the last 1/2 decade, so I don't think there's any "size discrimination" going on in PIT. With such a premium placed on CBs these days and such a drastic dropoff to the next tier of corners after Harris, A. Williams & J. Smith, their value will be inflated and all three will likely go in the 1st round. If anything, your candidate to be drafted by PIT (Aaron Williams)is the more logical "not" pick. The Steelers have been burned by ex-Longhorns like Tony Hills and Limas Sweed recently. Their a smart enough organization to notice a negative trend like that.
mprofetta 04-06-2011 09:44 am xxx.xxx.xxx29.2 (total posts: 2)
15     19

This is a very interesting concept. I agree with most of your "not picks". One nit-pic: It seems odd to disqualify Fairley from consideration at #6 because the Browns' braintrust "really like multi-year starters from big programs" and then list Robert Quinn, who (like Fairley) really only has one year of tape to go on, as I more likely candidate. Following your logic, Cameron Jordan would have to be a consideration for Cleveland.
Carlos 04-06-2011 08:54 am xxx.xxx.xxx3.61 (total posts: 1)
18     18

Of course the Texans have concerns about drafting CBs with consecutive #1 picks. That rumor has been out since the time Brandon Harris was the popular choice for Houston in mocks. Prince Amukamara fits into exactly what the Texans look for when drafting: senior, good athlete, and no major character concerns. Beyond Amukamara (and peterson who will not be there) there is no CB Houston would draft at #1 for the concerns you listed. It all boils down to if they have to reach for a player like they have done in the past it won't be a CB, it will more likely be an OLB.
Packer Fan 04-06-2011 08:53 am xxx.xxx.xxx6.15 (total posts: 2)
17     17

@walt- Awhile back I either wrote you an email or posted a comment about how the packers wouldn't take a 27 year old guard and you replied with something like "the packers are built to win now". That was only a month or two ago. I told you so.
The packers do like tall corners however short ones fit our scheme just fine as a matter of fact Tramon Williams and Sam Shields are both only 5'11.
Jesse 04-06-2011 07:47 am xxx.xxx.xxx.207 (total posts: 2)
16     16

So I now understand why players are being "not" mocked to different teams. Just used to the same thing when looking at a mock draft.
Doug 04-06-2011 07:44 am xxx.xxx.xxx.226 (total posts: 2)
17     16

Oh Sh**, nevermind I see what you did
Doug 04-06-2011 07:40 am xxx.xxx.xxx.226 (total posts: 2)
16     16

Why is Nick Fairley picked twice?
Jesse 04-06-2011 07:40 am xxx.xxx.xxx.207 (total posts: 2)
18     17

Hey Walt, I know you did this mock early in the morning but you have Nick Fairley slated to go to the Panthers at No. 1 overall and then again at No. 6 overall to the Browns. Not criticizing you, just pointing that out. Great work by the way.
Aaron 04-06-2011 06:06 am xxx.xxx.xxx3.13 (total posts: 2)
16     17

Whis is unlikely to get fired even after another poor season. He signed a $20M extension prior to last year and the Bidwills are not going to buy him out of two years and then pay another head coach to actually work.

Even Denny Green was given three poor seasons by the Bidwills, Whis has at least earned that. He does have room to move on this, and he will not hesitate to draft a QB if he thinks that guy translates into a Franchise QB.
Jeff 04-06-2011 06:04 am xxx.xxx.xxx3.13 (total posts: 2)
16     18

I get the feeling that Gabbert is going to be sneakily high on the Cards board. They have a tendency to take Seniors, but also bow slightly to need over value in the first round.

Gabbert fits the Cardinals offense perfectly, with lots of shotgun, quick release short and intermediate throws.

My biggest worry he is he is an underclassman, and the Cards under Whis much prefer seniors (24 or 27 picks have been seniors)

I would not have him as the "not" pick. Instead I would say they pass on Robert Quinn, he does not look fluid or comfortable dropping into coverage, and with the Cards tendency to draft Seniors I don't see this being the pick. If Miller is not there I think you see Arizona reach for a senior, maybe Amukumara.

I cannot see Shanny passing on Locker, he get a hard on for any athletic QB with a huge arm. He won two rings behind that type of QB with Elway, traded for Plummer to get the mobility there, Traded up to draft Cutler despite not working him out and he fits the mobile and huge arm trend. He then traded for Donovan McNabb with his mobility and big arm. Locker makes too much sense to not mock to the Redskins right now, even if the value there is horrible.

Not pick for the Phins, anyone who is not from the Big 10,seriously look at their past 4 drafts.

Penn State, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio State. They love the Big 10 in the first round.
BRDEMPSEY69 04-06-2011 05:26 am xxx.xxx.xxx2.22 (total posts: 1)
16     16

I agree with you Walter regarding Wisniewski at #21 for the Chiefs. That would be a major bone-headed reach. They need to take Carimi at #21, if he's there & if they pass on Carimi like they did with Russell Okung last year, then this Chiefs fan of 42 years will be turning against the current regime of Pioli/Haley and wishing them nothing but failure because it will serve them right.
Blake 04-06-2011 03:34 am xxx.xxx.xxx.130 (total posts: 1)
17     16

Awesome. I like that you actually pay attention to draft habits of decision makers instead of just giving everyone BPA at a reasonable position. It makes for a much more realistic mock draft. Great job. Poor Da'Quan...
Walter 04-06-2011 02:24 am xxx.xxx.xxx9.63 (total posts: 1)
17     16

First comment... we're going to have comment boards like this all over the site soon. We're still working out the kinks, so this is not the finished product.



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MIKE 04-06-2011 11:01 am xxx.xxx.xxx19.8 (total posts: 1)
20     20

THE OWNERS SHOULD LOCK THE PLAYERS FOR TWO YEARS BECAUSE 90% OF THE PLAYERS GET FREE RIDE TO GO TO SCHOOL BECAUSE ALL THEY KNOW HOW TO DO RUN AND JUMP HOW MANY GET A SCHOALSHIP FOR BE SMART .NO ONE SHOULD MAKE MORE THAN THE ONWERS OF ANY BUNINESS
Dan Sternberg 04-06-2011 10:22 am xxx.xxx.xxx.254 (total posts: 1)
20     15

Walt,

you are the ONLY mock that I have ever seen that takes the Tom Condon/Pats factor into account. Even the "Homers" around Boston that do their drafts are oblivious to this fact. Tom Condon has even stated publically that he only deals with 31 NFL teams.

Good work taking all the necessary factors into account.
mprofetta 04-06-2011 10:09 am xxx.xxx.xxx29.2 (total posts: 2)
15     20

I love that you're not falling for Watkins in the 1st round. Linemen typically don't fully blossom until their 3rd season and Watkins will be 30 (!!)and on the physical downslide as he enters what are supposed to be his prime years. Good player, but simply just a POOR value.
Not loving the PIT/Brandon Harris "not" pick. The most important trait for a CB in the PIT D-scheme is sure tackling ability, and regardless of his height, Harris isn't afraid to step up vs. the run and does so effectively. With the exception of Ike Taylor, 5-9 Deshea Townsend was arguably the Steelers' most reliable CB over the last 1/2 decade, so I don't think there's any "size discrimination" going on in PIT. With such a premium placed on CBs these days and such a drastic dropoff to the next tier of corners after Harris, A. Williams & J. Smith, their value will be inflated and all three will likely go in the 1st round. If anything, your candidate to be drafted by PIT (Aaron Williams)is the more logical "not" pick. The Steelers have been burned by ex-Longhorns like Tony Hills and Limas Sweed recently. Their a smart enough organization to notice a negative trend like that.
mprofetta 04-06-2011 09:44 am xxx.xxx.xxx29.2 (total posts: 2)
15     19

This is a very interesting concept. I agree with most of your "not picks". One nit-pic: It seems odd to disqualify Fairley from consideration at #6 because the Browns' braintrust "really like multi-year starters from big programs" and then list Robert Quinn, who (like Fairley) really only has one year of tape to go on, as I more likely candidate. Following your logic, Cameron Jordan would have to be a consideration for Cleveland.
Carlos 04-06-2011 08:54 am xxx.xxx.xxx3.61 (total posts: 1)
18     18

Of course the Texans have concerns about drafting CBs with consecutive #1 picks. That rumor has been out since the time Brandon Harris was the popular choice for Houston in mocks. Prince Amukamara fits into exactly what the Texans look for when drafting: senior, good athlete, and no major character concerns. Beyond Amukamara (and peterson who will not be there) there is no CB Houston would draft at #1 for the concerns you listed. It all boils down to if they have to reach for a player like they have done in the past it won't be a CB, it will more likely be an OLB.
Packer Fan 04-06-2011 08:53 am xxx.xxx.xxx6.15 (total posts: 2)
17     17

@walt- Awhile back I either wrote you an email or posted a comment about how the packers wouldn't take a 27 year old guard and you replied with something like "the packers are built to win now". That was only a month or two ago. I told you so.
The packers do like tall corners however short ones fit our scheme just fine as a matter of fact Tramon Williams and Sam Shields are both only 5'11.
Jesse 04-06-2011 07:47 am xxx.xxx.xxx.207 (total posts: 2)
16     16

So I now understand why players are being "not" mocked to different teams. Just used to the same thing when looking at a mock draft.
Doug 04-06-2011 07:44 am xxx.xxx.xxx.226 (total posts: 2)
17     16

Oh Sh**, nevermind I see what you did
Doug 04-06-2011 07:40 am xxx.xxx.xxx.226 (total posts: 2)
16     16

Why is Nick Fairley picked twice?
Jesse 04-06-2011 07:40 am xxx.xxx.xxx.207 (total posts: 2)
18     17

Hey Walt, I know you did this mock early in the morning but you have Nick Fairley slated to go to the Panthers at No. 1 overall and then again at No. 6 overall to the Browns. Not criticizing you, just pointing that out. Great work by the way.
Aaron 04-06-2011 06:06 am xxx.xxx.xxx3.13 (total posts: 2)
16     17

Whis is unlikely to get fired even after another poor season. He signed a $20M extension prior to last year and the Bidwills are not going to buy him out of two years and then pay another head coach to actually work.

Even Denny Green was given three poor seasons by the Bidwills, Whis has at least earned that. He does have room to move on this, and he will not hesitate to draft a QB if he thinks that guy translates into a Franchise QB.
Jeff 04-06-2011 06:04 am xxx.xxx.xxx3.13 (total posts: 2)
16     18

I get the feeling that Gabbert is going to be sneakily high on the Cards board. They have a tendency to take Seniors, but also bow slightly to need over value in the first round.

Gabbert fits the Cardinals offense perfectly, with lots of shotgun, quick release short and intermediate throws.

My biggest worry he is he is an underclassman, and the Cards under Whis much prefer seniors (24 or 27 picks have been seniors)

I would not have him as the "not" pick. Instead I would say they pass on Robert Quinn, he does not look fluid or comfortable dropping into coverage, and with the Cards tendency to draft Seniors I don't see this being the pick. If Miller is not there I think you see Arizona reach for a senior, maybe Amukumara.

I cannot see Shanny passing on Locker, he get a hard on for any athletic QB with a huge arm. He won two rings behind that type of QB with Elway, traded for Plummer to get the mobility there, Traded up to draft Cutler despite not working him out and he fits the mobile and huge arm trend. He then traded for Donovan McNabb with his mobility and big arm. Locker makes too much sense to not mock to the Redskins right now, even if the value there is horrible.

Not pick for the Phins, anyone who is not from the Big 10,seriously look at their past 4 drafts.

Penn State, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio State. They love the Big 10 in the first round.
BRDEMPSEY69 04-06-2011 05:26 am xxx.xxx.xxx2.22 (total posts: 1)
16     16

I agree with you Walter regarding Wisniewski at #21 for the Chiefs. That would be a major bone-headed reach. They need to take Carimi at #21, if he's there & if they pass on Carimi like they did with Russell Okung last year, then this Chiefs fan of 42 years will be turning against the current regime of Pioli/Haley and wishing them nothing but failure because it will serve them right.
Blake 04-06-2011 03:34 am xxx.xxx.xxx.130 (total posts: 1)
17     16

Awesome. I like that you actually pay attention to draft habits of decision makers instead of just giving everyone BPA at a reasonable position. It makes for a much more realistic mock draft. Great job. Poor Da'Quan...
Walter 04-06-2011 02:24 am xxx.xxx.xxx9.63 (total posts: 1)
17     16

First comment... we're going to have comment boards like this all over the site soon. We're still working out the kinks, so this is not the finished product.



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