Mining for Undrafted NFL Prospects

By Hunter Ansley

Hunter is a freelance writer who has been published by ESPN the Magazine. He runs Draft Zoo.com

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Below the Seventh Round - Mining the NFL's Real Sleeper Pool



This article didn't exactly start out to be what it eventually became. I was, like most of us, getting a little sick of hearing about Matt Stafford's arm strength, Vontae Davis' backtalk, and Percy Harvin's plans to sell uranium to third-world countries. So, I went in search of some scintillating data about the little guys - the guys who were plucked in the seventh round. More specifically, the last 10 guys drafted in the last 10 seventh rounds.

Surely, with 100 prospects to choose from there would be a few household names that had slipped past the geniuses in charge of evaluating the talent, right? Nope, not one single Pro-Bowler in the entire group. There weren't even any note-worthy Pro Bowl snubs. It was basically a list of guys that the average fan couldn't differentiate from the professionals on Dancing with the Stars.

Of course, that's not all that surprising. These guys were drafted at the end of the weekend for a reason. You don't end up as Mr. Irrelevant because pro teams are glistening with enthusiasm over your chances to help the team. No one expects a late seventh-rounder to become a hero. So maybe I should have expected this. Call me an optimist, or just plain bored, but I had all my fingers crossed that someone would stand out. Don't try that at home. Typing is incredibly hard with overlapped digits.

But I'm not a quitter, so I decided to check out the entire last round which upped my prospect pool to around 500, if you're counting. So, again, I was excited. Here's where the article will grow some teeth, I thought. My point will be proven, I'll win a Pulitzer, and those 19-year-old twins next door from Sweden will need to borrow a hot shower.

But, again, nothing. Well, next to nothing. Ready for the numbers? Six Pro Bowlers have been drafted in the seventh round since 1998. Guys like Sean Morey and Brian Jennings aren't your run-of-the-mill first-ballot Hall-of-Famers. Don't know who Jennings is? Me either. Apparently he was a long-snapper. Maybe he still is. I don't really care. The point is none of these guys brought the star power to the table that I was looking for.

Here's where it got interesting though. Instead of backing up the list of draftees towards the earlier rounds, I decided to go for broke and check out the undrafted guys from the last decade of pigskin gambling. The results were pretty astonishing. I could almost hear Swedish giggling and a knock at the door followed by a playful towel snap.

Nineteen Pro Bowlers have been signed as undrafted free agents in the last 10 years. That's more than three times as many as you can find in the final round.

And they're not long snappers. They're players. Real, honest-to-God stars of the sport. Of course, Pro Bowl invites aren't everything, but they do provide a nice, quick way to evaluate success when you're on the third leg of an article you expected to have finished a week ago.

Just listen to these names. Jeff Saturday (1998), Antonio Pierce (2001), Bart Scott and James Harrison (2002), Tony Romo and Antonio Gates (2003), and Wes Welker and Willie Parker and Jason Peters (2004). I know Peters is a stretch, I've read Walt's Jason Peters Trade Reaction. But he's still making the dough, deserved or not. Pretty impressive if you ask me. Kind of puts Sean Morey's all-star appearance in perspective.

And that list is only nine of the 19 undrafted players who are considered tops among the entire world at their respective positions. Sure, the satchel of players is deeper among the thousands who have failed to hear there names called in New York, but a 300-plus percent margin is nothing to laugh at.

There was even an undrafted guy in last year's draft who made the most recent trip to Hawaii. Clifton Smith earned the vacation as a return specialist.

Now, the only remaining red herring is figuring out why these guys have been more successful than the prospects who were actually selected in the draft. It's a bit of a mystery. Perhaps the drive to prove yourself is greater when no one's giving you any chance at all. Maybe getting picked in Round 7 is enough of an ego boost to fertilize complacency, while still being a concrete reminder that you're probably not good enough to play for pay. Maybe the guys who are headed to camp with nothing to lose are more relaxed, more willing to lay it all on the line. After all, what's the worst that could happen? If you don't make the team then you're still not a professional football player. Same as when you arrived.

Still, it could be that so many small-school prospects are never given a fair look in the scouting process. Guys like Romo and Scott played below the FBS level. Gates didn't even play football in college. Of course, even if he had starred at Kent State, it wouldn't have meant much. Just ask former Golden Flash James Harrison how that worked out for him.

Then again, it could be a size issue. Not many pundits expected Wes Welker to haul in as many passes as he has at only 5-9 in cleats. Tell me, who thought a 6-0, 242-pound kid would end up as the league's Defensive MVP and Super Bowl hero playing outside linebacker in the 3-4? I don't mind saying that I didn't see it coming. I guess I should have looked lower. It would appear that, like the rest of the drafting process, this enigmatic stat will remain a mystery.

So, if your favorite player ends up crying on his couch Sunday night, while others pop champagne and begin their respective reigns of terror as first-time millionaires, don't join in the waterworks. Just remember that anything is possible in the NFL. I mean, if Jason Peters can go undrafted, give up 11.5 sacks, be fat, and still land a nice contract on a playoff-caliber team, then you can't rule anything out. Now, if you'll excuse me, I'm sure I heard the doorbell this time.









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