Here's my analysis on the Redskins/Giants game...all of my picks are free at www.blackboxsports.net ... I might post my Denver play later as well, but it's up on the site if you're interested. Good luck to all the gamblohrs in here!
The Giants have put up quite a few points this season, but have had a relatively easy schedule thus far, at least in terms of defenses they’ve played. In fact, the highest ranked defense they’ve played recently was the Patriots (7th), who held them to 26 pts. That said, the Redskins don’t qualify as having a good, or even average defense themselves, as they currently rank 31st in our Power Rankings, with a pitiful power rating of 20 (out of a 100). They can’t stop the run at all, allowing 4.8 YPC this season (t-2nd last), and also have a hard time against the pass, allowing 7.7 YPA this season. They also can’t get to the QB, and are allowing a 109 QBR and a whopping 6.4 YPP (yards per play) over the last 6 weeks….they’re just pitiful. While the Giants probably won’t be able to take advantage on the ground, Eli and company will certainly take advantage aerially.
On the other side, the Redskins do have some hope. The Giants rank in the middle of the pack at stopping the run, which will be important in this game as the Redskins try to control the clock with Matt Jones and Alfred Morris. If they can keep Cousins in manageable down and distances, I like their chances of putting up a ton of points themselves. The Giants D, despite being ranked 23rd in our Power Rankings, are allowing 6.6 YPP over the last 6 weeks (worse than the Redskins) and, despite JPP playing a lot better than expected off an amputated finger, still struggle to get any pressure on the QB (I’m not buying the Patriots game – Brady has been under duress all season).
This game is shaping up to be a back and forth affair, so I like taking the home team with the free FG. I also like the situational angles here, as the Redskins are coming off a blow-out defeat to the Panthers, while the Giants are coming off a very tight loss to the undefeated Pats, and are also off a bye, which explains why this spread is moving in the direction of the Giants. The whole point of the Model is to cut thru all the noise, public bias, media hype and other crap that can move a line, so I’m not surprised it’s saying the Redskins are undervalued right now. The standard method for recommending units likes the Skins for 2 units (see above in the Statistical Model section), and so does the new method. I’m sticking with 2 units on the Redskins.
LINE MOVEMENT: This line has dropped to 2.5, indicating the professional bettors are all over the Redskins. I still like the skins for 2 units, even at 2.5, but I'm going to hold out and see if 3 pops back up again. We're not risking much by doing this, since the worst case scenario is the line moves down to 2, which isn't a big deal.
OVER-UNDER: I don't normally play over-unders, but for whatever reason I'm trying it this week for a few games. This total doesn't make sense to me - 47? Both teams can put up 30+, and a 28-24 final would actually be on the low side to me. I'm going with 1 unit on the Over.
FINAL BET: This line has dropped to +2..I'm locking this in for 2 units.
INJURY UPDATES: I don't normally post all the injuries, but considering a lot of people are scared to take the Redskins, I decided to give an update. The Giants have 2 key injuries on their Offensive Line - G Justin Pugh and C Weston Richburg (who is having a stellar season). Center is so important, so the latter is really going to hurt.
This is a 2007 NFL Draft Re-Mock, just in case you missed the big blue letters up top. I'm going back to 2007 and re-distributing all of the 2007 NFL Draft prospects to all of the teams in the 2007 NFL Draft order. This 2007 NFL Draft Re-Mock is based on how these players have performed in their careers, as well as the needs each team had back in 2007.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Joe Staley, OT, Central Michigan Actual 2007 NFL Draft Pick: Reggie Nelson, S My 2007 NFL Mock Draft Pick: Ted Ginn, WR
The Jaguars were going into the 2007 season with one of the most immobile quarterbacks in NFL history (Byron Leftwich) protected by two tackles named Khalif Barnes and Tony Pashos. How the hell did this team make it to the second round of the playoffs?
Cincinnati Bengals: Eric Weddle, S, Utah Actual 2007 NFL Draft Pick: Leon Hall, CB My 2007 NFL Mock Draft Pick: Leon Hall, CB
The Bengals spent fourth- and seventh-round picks on safeties because their two starters were Madieu Williams and Dexter Jackson. Too bad someone else named Dexter didn't get rid of them, amirite?
Tennessee Titans: Sidney Rice, WR, South Carolina Actual 2007 NFL Draft Pick: Michael Griffin, S My 2007 NFL Mock Draft Pick: Robert Meachem, WR
I mocked Robert Meachem to the Titans because their top receivers at the time were David Givens, Brandon Jones, Justin Gage, Roydell Williams and Courtney Roby.
Sidney Rice is way too injury-prone, but he's worth the risk here at No. 19, especially considering how quickly the talent is about to run out. It's going to get ugly starting in six or so picks.
New York Giants: Michael Griffin, S, Texas Actual 2007 NFL Draft Pick: Aaron Ross, CB My 2007 NFL Mock Draft Pick: Aaron Ross, CB
When Will Demps and Gibril Wilson are your starting safeties, you defnitely need an upgrade at the position. Michael Griffin ideally wouldn't be in a first-round of any sort of draft or re-draft, but this class is really thin.
Denver Broncos: Paul Soliai, NT, Utah Actual 2007 NFL Draft Pick: Jarvis Moss, DE My 2007 NFL Mock Draft Pick: Alan Branch, DT
I apparently thought the Broncos needed a fat defensive tackle, so let's re-mock them an even better fat defensive tackle.
Dallas Cowboys: Doug Free, OT, Northern Illinois Actual 2007 NFL Draft Pick: Anthony Spencer, DE/OLB My 2007 NFL Mock Draft Pick: Dwayne Jarrett, WR
Doug Free just had a down year, but he's the best available player who makes sense for the 2007 Cowboys at this juncture. I told you that it's about to get bleak. You haven't seen anything yet. The 2007 NFL Draft class was very top-heavy, but horribly thin.
Kansas City Chiefs: Ben Grubbs, G, Auburn Actual 2007 NFL Draft Pick: Dwayne Bowe, WR My 2007 NFL Mock Draft Pick: Joe Staley, OT
I've wanted to slot Ben Grubbs in over the past few selections, but none of those teams had a need at guard. The Chiefs did because Will Shields was turning 36, and their only other option was John Welbourn.
Speaking of needs, my No. 5 need for Kansas City back in 2007 was "re-sign Damon Huard." Yeah, I must have smoked some crack when I compiled that page.
New England Patriots: LaRon Landry, S, LSU Actual 2007 NFL Draft Pick: Brandon Meriweather, S My 2007 NFL Mock Draft Pick: David Harris, ILB
LaRon Landry is another player I wanted to mock a bit earlier, but it just didn't work out. It does here though, as New England clearly had a need (and still does) at safety.
New York Jets: Ray McDonald, DE/DT, Florida Actual 2007 NFL Draft Pick: Darrelle Revis, CB My 2007 NFL Mock Draft Pick: Greg Olsen, TE
New coaches who come in and stubbornly run their own system despite mismatching personnel never last very long. Case in point: Eric Mangini, whose 3-4 didn't mesh well with several defenders on the roster. Now, the Mangina is working for ESPN. Poor Erin Andrews.
Philadelphia Eagles: Laurent Robinson, WR, Illinois State Actual 2007 NFL Draft Pick: Kevin Kolb, QB My 2007 NFL Mock Draft Pick: Michael Griffin, S
Philadelphia's starting receivers in the post-Terrell Owens area were Reggie Brown and Kevin Curtis. No wonder Donovan McNabb always had sand in his vag.
Believe it or not, the best player available who makes sense for Philadelphia is Laurent Robinson. I told you that this would get ugly.
New Orleans Saints: Justin Blalock, G, Texas Actual 2007 NFL Draft Pick: Robert Meachem, WR My 2007 NFL Mock Draft Pick: Justin Harrell, DT
The Saints spent a third-round pick on someone named Andy Alleman because they wanted an upgrade over Jamar Nesbit at left guard. I wanted to mock Justin Blalock a bit earlier, but it just didn't work out.
San Francisco 49ers: Steve Smith, WR, USC Actual 2007 NFL Draft Pick: Joe Staley, OT My 2007 NFL Mock Draft Pick: Brandon Meriweather, S
Steve Smith was a really good slot receiver for the Giants before suffering a severe knee injury. The 49ers could have used help at receiver; you're not going to win many games when Darrell Jackson and Arnaz Battle are your starting wideouts.
Baltimore Ravens: Lyle Sendlein, C, Texas Actual 2007 NFL Draft Pick: Ben Grubbs, G My 2007 NFL Mock Draft Pick: Jarvis Moss, DE/OLB
This is before the Ravens signed Matt Birk, so they really needed a center. Lyle Sendlein should be about 8-10 picks higher than this, but there wasn't a team that needed help at center in that range.
San Diego Chargers: James Jones, WR, San Jose State Actual 2007 NFL Draft Pick: Buster Davis, WR My 2007 NFL Mock Draft Pick: Dwayne Bowe, WR
And this re-draft just keeps getting weaker. I mocked Dwayne Bowe to the Chargers because "Keenan McCardell was cut in March." Wow, it seems like it's been 10 years since we've seen him play. Time flies when you're eating Cheetos and working on a football Web site.
Chicago Bears: Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, Marshall Actual 2007 NFL Draft Pick: Greg Olsen, TE My 2007 NFL Mock Draft Pick: Jon Beason, OLB
Ahmad Bradshaw would be higher in this re-mock if he weren't injured heading into the 2007 season. Still, the Bears would have considered him under these circumstances because Cedric Benson showed them absolutely nothing in two seasons.
Tough call between Bradshaw and Michael Bush, by the way, but I couldn't put the latter in my first round because he wasn't going to be ready to play in 2007 coming off a serious injury.
Indianapolis Colts: Paul Posluszny, LB, Penn State Actual 2007 NFL Draft Pick: Anthony Gonzalez, WR My 2007 NFL Mock Draft Pick: Lawrence Timmons, OLB
Paul Posluszny has enjoyed a more lucrative career than Anthony Gonzalez, proving once and for all that Penn State is better than Ohio State. Besides, we don't employ pervy assistant football coaches like the Buckeyes do.
Anyway, I hope you enjoyed my 2007 NFL Re-Draft. I want to do a 2008 version, but I don't feel like the verdict is out yet on many players, namely the quarterbacks (Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco).