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College Hoops Preseason Tournament Previews


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Maui Invitational Preview - Nov. 19


As much as Feast Week is about stuffing your face with turkey, stuffing, and mashed potatoes; it's also about sweet college basketball tournaments like the Maui Invitational. This field is not as stacked as a year ago when Duke needed a pair of Tyler Thornton "Onions" three pointers to beat Kansas in the title game. Nevertheless here are my predictions from a field which includes North Carolina, Texas, Marquette, Illinois, and Butler.


Quarterfinals, Monday


Marquette vs. Butler, 3:30 pm, ESPN2
The Golden Eagles have relied on their frontcourt of Jamil Wilson, Davante Gardner, and Chris Otule so far as the trio is averaging 37 points per game. The starting backcourt of Junior Cadougan, Vander Blue, and Arizona State transfer Trent Lockett have gotten off to a slow start, combining to shoot just 12-39 from the field.

The Bulldogs were smacked around a bit by Xavier in their last game. Brad Stevens' team is leaning on sharpshooting guards Rotnei Clarke and Kellen Durham, who have already attempted 28 triples through two games. If Marquette can take a note of what the Musketeers' did by preventing that duo from going off from distance, the Golden Eagles should advance to the semifinals.

Prediction: Marquette 68, Butler 61

North Carolina vs. Mississippi State, 6:00, ESPN2
Even without four starters from last year, North Carolina has reloaded like it always does. As expected, James Michael McAdoo has taken the leap, averaging 21 points and 11.3 rebounds through three games. There is plenty of athleticism on the roster ,and when guys like Reggie Bullock and P.J. Hairston get hot from deep, the Heels can put points on the board in a hurry.

The Bulldogs are in a massive rebuilding year and lost their season opener at Troy. They will be without two starters: veteran guard Jalen Steele, who is out approximately six weeks with an injury, and suspended forward Colin Borchert.

Prediction: North Carolina 88, Mississippi State 57

Texas vs. Chaminade, 9:30, ESPNU
The Longhorns are still without point guard Myck Kabongo as the NCAA is still determining whether or not he took impermissible benefits this offseason. Freshman Javan Felix has been thrust into the starting role, having played 71 minutes in the Horns' first two games. He has been decent all-around, averaging 5 points, 5 assists, and 6.5 assists per game, but has turned it over 11 times. Texas has a lot of size this year and should be able to overpower the host school with no problems.

Prediction: Texas 76, Chaminade 52

Illinois vs. USC, 12:00, ESPN2
The Illini have already played a game in Hawaii, needing a D.J. Richardson three-pointer at the overtime buzzer to beat the Warriors Friday evening. It is all about the guard play for first-year head coach John Groce as Richardson, Brandon Paul, and Tracy Abrams are averaging more than 47 of Illinois' 81 points per game.

The Trojans are deeper and more talented than they have been in a couple of years but will still try to grind out victories by slowing down the tempo. If they can impose their defensive will and not let the Illini get out and run, I think USC pulls off the mini-upset.

Prediction: USC 62, Illinois 61 OT





Semifinals, Tuesday


Marquette vs. North Carolina, 8:00, ESPN
This is a rematch from the 2011 Sweet 16 in which North Carolina smacked Marquette around thanks to the Tar Heels' huge size advantage. This time around, the Golden Eagles actually have the size advantage inside; Otule and Gardner's physicality must overpower the length and athleticism of North Carolina's frontcourt while also sprinting back on defense to not let McAdoo run rim to rim. Both teams like to push tempo whenever possible, so forcing turnovers and converting fast-break opportunities will be essential for both squads. The Tar Heels have more weapons from the perimeter which I think gives them the edge.

Prediction: North Carolina 77, Marquette 70

Texas vs. USC, 10:30, ESPN
A veteran USC squad that will play as many as nine upperclassmen versus a Texas team with only freshmen and sophomores on scholarship. This comes down to me A) not quite ready to trust Felix in what will be a half-court game versus a stout Trojan defense and B) needing to pick at least one "Cinderella" team to make it to the Finals.

Prediction: USC 57, Texas 52





Fifth-Place Game, Wednesday


Butler vs. Illinois, 5:00, ESPN2
With the type of guards that both teams have, it's going to be a hit-or-miss occasion on a nightly basis, so whichever team gets better play from its frontcourt goes home with a pair of wins from Maui and the distinction of taking fifth place. Andrew Smith has to eventually show up for the Bulldogs, and Khyle Marshall's versatility will be a tough matchup for Tyler Griffey or whoever ends up guarding him.

Prediction: Butler 69, Illinois 67


Third-Place Game, Wednesday


Marquette vs. Texas, 7:30, ESPN2
I'm giving the nod to Marquette's veteran backcourt in this one. Lockett needs to step up for the Golden Eagles to reach their potential this season and no better place to breakout than a somewhat must-win third place game in Maui. I say somewhat must-win because whoever losses this game heads back to the mainland with a 1-2 record on the islands.

Prediction: Marquette 72, Texas 69





Championship Game, Wednesday


North Carolina vs. USC, 10:00 ESPN2
While much improved on offense from a year ago, USC just doesn't have the offensive firepower to compete with a team like North Carolina unless the Trojans totally control tempo, which is very hard to do against the run-and-gun Tar Heels. Fatigue shouldn't be too much of an issue, which is typically a concern on the third straight game-day, since both teams can go 10 deep and should have fresh enough legs.

I think this one stays within a bucket or two in the first half but North Carolina blows things open after the break. McAdoo is your Maui MVP and this three-day stretch really puts him on the map like what happened with Kemba Walker two years ago when Connecticut brought home the tournament title.

Prediction: North Carolina 78, USC 55





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