1392 Posts (3778 )
Tuesday Plays 7/18
»-D-Backs RL +122 (60.2%)
»-Cardinals -113 (54.5%)
»-Tigers +103 (57.0%)
»-Astros RL +100 (63.9%)
»-Rays/Athletics Over 9 +102 (9.9)
»-Tigers/Royals Over 10.5 -110 (10.8)
Taking the D-Backs and Robbie Ray on the Road as long as they don't face a lefty on the Road, it's all good. The D-Backs should be motivated after losing the series vs the Braves and in the thick of the wild card chase. I considered the Under but both teams are off of rest so I'll prolly pass on that. Showing some decent value, and ignoring the fact the public will be on them.
Taking the Cardinals for the 3rd str8 day, I like the pitching match-up more than anything, even though Wacha can give up some runs on the Road, I'm showing value on the Under 9 +102 again but I don't like it that much with these pitchers.
Taking the Tigers again vs a lefty who they've been hitting good, the Royals have been hitting better vs lefties as of late also but the Tigers still have a big advantage, FF might of been the better play. I'm taking the Over even though I only have them slightly going over the total because I do expect some runs to be put up on both sides in this one. And I also don't get many Over projections and they do pretty good when I get them, this was one of 3 for tomorrow and I only had one yesterday for the Rockies game which hit easily.
+0.9 is a pretty high difference for an over by my model and the Athletics have trended heavily to Overs at Home vs lefties this season, I think it's 9-3 SU and OU at Home vs lefties. They've faced better lefties than Snell, so they should be able to get him for some runs and the Rays are always a threat to knock one out and put up some runs. The series history looked pretty good on the Over as well, so I pulled the trigger.
The Cubs at that price is very tempting, the line drop sort of scared me, but I think Newcomb will get lit up again like his last two starts and the Braves should score some of Lackey also, so the over doesn't seem too bad of an option.
The Phillies/Marlins Under is another one I kind of like but the price isn't good right now at -113, it should go down later if I want to play it. The combined ERA of the pitchers is 13.1, for awhile I was fading anything that was 2 runs over or under the total, with the idea that people look at the ERA's first and see such a high or low number and jump all over it. Those have been some of those wtf plays I have made over the last month, but they have done pretty decent. Two more like that today are the Astros and Reds because the combined ERA's are 6.9 and 7.5, making them Over plays, but I don't think the Under in those games are really going to be liked by the public much, so not contrarian.
I like the Pirates but the price is too high and I like the Phillies just a little.