Casey Greer's 2008 MLB Season Preview
NL Central
All baseball season previews have been compiled by Casey Greer.
Send Casey an e-mail here: caseymgreer@gmail.com
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Chicago Cubs (85-77)
2007 Pythagorean* Record: 87-75
Key Additions:
Kosuke Fukudome, OF
Jon Lieber, RHP
Key Losses:
Cliff Floyd, OF
Jacque Jones, OF
Jason Kendall, C
Craig Monroe, OF
Angel Pagan, OF
Mark Prior, RHP
Summary: A lot of "experts" have the Cubs winning the 2008 World Series. Even as a Cubs fan, I tend to think that is a convenient prediction that not so coincidentally coincides with their 100th year without a championship. The Cubs' starting rotation, though injured before, is far from dominating now. Carlos Zambrano is one of the best pitchers in baseball, but what lies behind him is a lot of finesse. Kerry Wood has all the makings of a great closer. His career path has followed a similar one to Eric Gagne, minus of course, the steroid allegations. Wood has two elite pitches, and can likely return to throwing the breaking ball that made him famous. While too many pitches are called sliders that are curveballs in reality - perhaps an argument for a later date - Wood's power-slurve was one of the most dominating pitches in baseball before his arm blew up.
Kosuke Fukudome, in addition to having a name that should be fun to hear opposing play-by-play guys pronounce, will add a lot of stability at the top of the lineup. Chicago should make the playoffs in 2008, but probably doesn't have a deep enough rotation to contend for a title.
2008 Projection: 92-70
Cincinnati Reds (70-92)
2007 Pythagorean* Record: 70-92
Key Additions:
Jeremy Affeldt, LHP
Francisco Cordero, RHP
Josh Fogg, RHP
Corey Patterson, OF
Key Losses:
Josh Hamilton, OF
Eddie Guardado, LHP
Summary: The Reds trotted out 11 starters in 2007. One of them was highly touted rookie Homer Bailey. Bailey is one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, and assuming he makes the big club to begin the year, the Reds should benefit from a full season from the youngster. Bronson Arroyo regressed in 2007, and should bounce back some, while Aaron Harang continued to pitch beyond expectations, posting his second straight 16-win, 230-plus inning, sub-4 ERA season, in the hitter-friendly confines of Great American Ballpark. If Corey Patterson makes the team, it could spell the end of the Ken Griffey Jr. era in Cincinnati. Josh Hamilton, one of the feel good stories of 2007, was traded to Texas. Cincinnati's struggles have rooted in their pitching for a long time, and they've brought in a lot of warm bodies to eat up some innings.
2008 Projection: 74-88
Houston Astros (73-89)
2007 Pythagorean* Record: 73-89
Key Additions:
Jose Valverde, RHP
Geoff Blum, INF
Doug Brocail, RHP
Shawn Chacon, RHP
Darin Erstad, OF
Kazuo Matsui, 2b
Miguel Tejada, SS
Key Losses:
Adam Everett, SS
Jason Jennings,, RHP
Mike Lamb, INF
Brad Lidge, RHP
Trever Miller, LHP
Troy Patton, LHP
Chad Qualls, RHP
Summary: Houston won the NL Central's "Most Improved" award. Bringing in Miguel Tejada, whose swing fits favorably in Minute Maid Park, as well as Kazuo Matsui, is a big upgrade in the middle infield. If Matsui can duplicate his 2007 output with the Rockies and stretch it over a full season, he'll be an offensive upgrade over long-time Astro Craig Biggio. Jose Valverde figures to have better numbers than Brad Lidge, the Astros' former closer, who has been shaky the past few seasons. Tejada is a huge upgrade over Adam Everett offensively, and as long as his numbers in the American League translate to the National League, and he isn't deported for obstruction of justice as part of baseball's ongoing steroids investigation, he should help the Astros win some games.
2008 Projection: 84-78
Milwaukee Brewers (83-79)
2007 Pythagorean* Record: 83-79
Key Additions:
Mike Cameron, OF
Eric Gagne, RHP
Gabe Kapler, OF
David Riske, RHP
Key Losses:
Francisco Cordero, RHP
Geoff Jenkins, OF
Scott Linebrink, RHP
Matt Wise, RHP
Summary: Milwaukee had a good season last year, one that had been predicted for a while. It wasn't enough to win the division, but the Brewers relied primarily on young talent. There are concerns about Prince Fielder's diet, but for different reasons this year. The Hefty Lefty - pardon me that's Jared Lorenzon - umm... Cecil's Vessel has become a vegetarian. So long as he doubles down on tofu and soy, I wouldn't worry. Eric Gagne will shore up the back half of the bullpen, though he'll have a hard time performing better than Francisco Cordero.
Mike Cameron will be a significant upgrade over Bill Hall in centerfield, and Hall may flourish moving third base, as the Brewers will shuffle their players, moving Ryan Braun to the outfield. If Braun, who slugged a stunning .634, can maintain his pace over a whole season, he'll hit nearly 50 homeruns. Combined with Fielder, and shortstop J.J. Hardy's power, and the potential of Hall returning to his 35-homerun 2006 season playing the infield, the Brewers could have the best offense in baseball. If Ben Sheets can stay healthy, and Yovani Gallardo can maintain or improve on his rookie season, the Brewers may win the NL Central or NL Wild Card.
2008 Projection: 89-73
Pittsburgh Pirates (68-94)
2007 Pythagorean* Record: 70-92
Key Additions:
Chris Gomez, INF
Doug Mientkievicz, 1b
Key Losses:
Shawn Chacon, RHP
Cesar Izturis, SS
Dan Kolb, RHP
Summary: Pittsburgh is a bad team that has very little hope for the near future. The Pirates haven't had a season over .500 since 1992, and with their once bright stable of prospects either fading, entering their arbitration years, or gone, there are no signs of that changing. Adam LaRoche was able to maintain his numbers from when he played in Atlanta, and both Ian Snell and Tom Gorzelanny posted good seasons, despite their combined record only one game over .500. Jason Bay and Freddy Sanchez will likely both be playing in different area codes by the end of the season. Pittsburgh has mismanaged their personnel for over a decade, and has a large hole to dig out of.
2008 Projection: 65-97
St. Louis Cardinals (78-84)
2007 Pythagorean* Record: 71-91
Key Additions:
Matt Clement, RHP
Cesar Izturis, INF
Kyle Lohse, RHP
Key Losses:
Miguel Cairo, INF
David Eckstein, SS
Jim Edmonds, OF
Troy Percival, RHP
Scott Rolen, 3b
So Taguchi, OF
Kip Wells, RHP
Summary: The St. Louis Cardinals had a very down year in 2007. They got one start from Chris Carpenter, battled through the death of Josh Hancock, and received a down year from Albert Pujols. Pujols still finished ninth in the MVP voting, despite having arguably his worst season as a pro.
The Cardinals acquired Joel Pineiro mid-season, who pitched well in his short time with the Cards, and should be better this year. By following the same principals they used to acquire Chris Carpenter, the Cardinals bought low on Pineiro, who is two years removed from an elbow injury, which is the general bench mark for returning to form. Pineiro was a great control pitcher previous to injuries, and as long as he avoids throwing the slider which has plagued so many former Mariner pitchers, he could be an All-Star candidate this season. The Cardinals have fallen from the class of the NL Central elite, but will have an improved team in 2008.
2008 Projection: 85-77
*Note (per BaseballReference.com) - The Pythagorean Theorem of Baseball is a creation of Bill James which relates the number of runs a team has scored and surrendered to its actual winning percentage, based on the idea that runs scored/runs allowed is a better indicator of a team's (future) performance than a team's actual winning percentage.
Back to the 2008 MLB Season Preview Home Page.
Send Casey an e-mail here: caseymgreer@gmail.com
All other e-mail, including advertising and link proposals, send to: wpc112@gmail.com
Chicago Cubs (85-77)
2007 Pythagorean* Record: 87-75
Key Additions:
Key Losses:
Summary: A lot of "experts" have the Cubs winning the 2008 World Series. Even as a Cubs fan, I tend to think that is a convenient prediction that not so coincidentally coincides with their 100th year without a championship. The Cubs' starting rotation, though injured before, is far from dominating now. Carlos Zambrano is one of the best pitchers in baseball, but what lies behind him is a lot of finesse. Kerry Wood has all the makings of a great closer. His career path has followed a similar one to Eric Gagne, minus of course, the steroid allegations. Wood has two elite pitches, and can likely return to throwing the breaking ball that made him famous. While too many pitches are called sliders that are curveballs in reality - perhaps an argument for a later date - Wood's power-slurve was one of the most dominating pitches in baseball before his arm blew up.
Kosuke Fukudome, in addition to having a name that should be fun to hear opposing play-by-play guys pronounce, will add a lot of stability at the top of the lineup. Chicago should make the playoffs in 2008, but probably doesn't have a deep enough rotation to contend for a title.
2008 Projection: 92-70
Cincinnati Reds (70-92)
2007 Pythagorean* Record: 70-92
Key Additions:
Key Losses:
Summary: The Reds trotted out 11 starters in 2007. One of them was highly touted rookie Homer Bailey. Bailey is one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, and assuming he makes the big club to begin the year, the Reds should benefit from a full season from the youngster. Bronson Arroyo regressed in 2007, and should bounce back some, while Aaron Harang continued to pitch beyond expectations, posting his second straight 16-win, 230-plus inning, sub-4 ERA season, in the hitter-friendly confines of Great American Ballpark. If Corey Patterson makes the team, it could spell the end of the Ken Griffey Jr. era in Cincinnati. Josh Hamilton, one of the feel good stories of 2007, was traded to Texas. Cincinnati's struggles have rooted in their pitching for a long time, and they've brought in a lot of warm bodies to eat up some innings.
2008 Projection: 74-88
Houston Astros (73-89)
2007 Pythagorean* Record: 73-89
Key Additions:
Key Losses:
Summary: Houston won the NL Central's "Most Improved" award. Bringing in Miguel Tejada, whose swing fits favorably in Minute Maid Park, as well as Kazuo Matsui, is a big upgrade in the middle infield. If Matsui can duplicate his 2007 output with the Rockies and stretch it over a full season, he'll be an offensive upgrade over long-time Astro Craig Biggio. Jose Valverde figures to have better numbers than Brad Lidge, the Astros' former closer, who has been shaky the past few seasons. Tejada is a huge upgrade over Adam Everett offensively, and as long as his numbers in the American League translate to the National League, and he isn't deported for obstruction of justice as part of baseball's ongoing steroids investigation, he should help the Astros win some games.
2008 Projection: 84-78
Milwaukee Brewers (83-79)
2007 Pythagorean* Record: 83-79
Key Additions:
Key Losses:
Summary: Milwaukee had a good season last year, one that had been predicted for a while. It wasn't enough to win the division, but the Brewers relied primarily on young talent. There are concerns about Prince Fielder's diet, but for different reasons this year. The Hefty Lefty - pardon me that's Jared Lorenzon - umm... Cecil's Vessel has become a vegetarian. So long as he doubles down on tofu and soy, I wouldn't worry. Eric Gagne will shore up the back half of the bullpen, though he'll have a hard time performing better than Francisco Cordero.
Mike Cameron will be a significant upgrade over Bill Hall in centerfield, and Hall may flourish moving third base, as the Brewers will shuffle their players, moving Ryan Braun to the outfield. If Braun, who slugged a stunning .634, can maintain his pace over a whole season, he'll hit nearly 50 homeruns. Combined with Fielder, and shortstop J.J. Hardy's power, and the potential of Hall returning to his 35-homerun 2006 season playing the infield, the Brewers could have the best offense in baseball. If Ben Sheets can stay healthy, and Yovani Gallardo can maintain or improve on his rookie season, the Brewers may win the NL Central or NL Wild Card.
2008 Projection: 89-73
Pittsburgh Pirates (68-94)
2007 Pythagorean* Record: 70-92
Key Additions:
Key Losses:
Summary: Pittsburgh is a bad team that has very little hope for the near future. The Pirates haven't had a season over .500 since 1992, and with their once bright stable of prospects either fading, entering their arbitration years, or gone, there are no signs of that changing. Adam LaRoche was able to maintain his numbers from when he played in Atlanta, and both Ian Snell and Tom Gorzelanny posted good seasons, despite their combined record only one game over .500. Jason Bay and Freddy Sanchez will likely both be playing in different area codes by the end of the season. Pittsburgh has mismanaged their personnel for over a decade, and has a large hole to dig out of.
2008 Projection: 65-97
St. Louis Cardinals (78-84)
2007 Pythagorean* Record: 71-91
Key Additions:
Key Losses:
Summary: The St. Louis Cardinals had a very down year in 2007. They got one start from Chris Carpenter, battled through the death of Josh Hancock, and received a down year from Albert Pujols. Pujols still finished ninth in the MVP voting, despite having arguably his worst season as a pro.
The Cardinals acquired Joel Pineiro mid-season, who pitched well in his short time with the Cards, and should be better this year. By following the same principals they used to acquire Chris Carpenter, the Cardinals bought low on Pineiro, who is two years removed from an elbow injury, which is the general bench mark for returning to form. Pineiro was a great control pitcher previous to injuries, and as long as he avoids throwing the slider which has plagued so many former Mariner pitchers, he could be an All-Star candidate this season. The Cardinals have fallen from the class of the NL Central elite, but will have an improved team in 2008.
2008 Projection: 85-77
*Note (per BaseballReference.com) - The Pythagorean Theorem of Baseball is a creation of Bill James which relates the number of runs a team has scored and surrendered to its actual winning percentage, based on the idea that runs scored/runs allowed is a better indicator of a team's (future) performance than a team's actual winning percentage.
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