Brett Favre Vikings Signing Analysis
Brett Favre Vikings Signing Analysis
By Matt McGuire (Walt's take at the bottom)
Aug. 19, 2009
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I told you. Brett Favre's wrinkly a** just wanted to miss training camp.
"Why go to training camp when I can just play two-hand touch in a great pair of Wranglers?"
Walter and I told you last year that Favre was an overrated acquisition for the Jets. ESPN hyped up Favre, the Jets became a wild-card favorite, and he tossed up 22 interceptions with a sterling 6.7 YPA.
What are all the implications for the Vikings and fantasy football? Let's get to that right now before Jon Gruden and Ron Jaworski smother your television set with their "Brett Favre, Brett Favre, O-M-G BRETT FAVRE!!!!" analysis.
Why signing Brett Favre was good for the Vikings:
1. Favre brings arm strength, for at least half a season, that Sage Rosenfels does not have. He can make the 18-yard deep out and curl with accuracy. Favre prevents that eighth man in the box because defenses know to respect his moxy and (over)confidence throwing the ball.
2. Favre claims to already know the playbook like he knows how to un-retire. He probably already has a great knack for this playbook better than any other quarterback on the roster.
Why signing Favre was bad for the Vikings?
Get some popcorn, sit back, and get comfortable because I could write a book on why this was a bad idea for Brad Childress.
1. Brett Favre has absolutely no chemistry with his receivers. Favre's receivers are already unproven or inexperienced to begin with outside of Bernard Berrian. Sage Rosenfels already has his receivers' confidence and has that rapport already built. Now, the receivers have to get on a different page with a new quarterback. We saw how Favre simply lacked chemistry with the Jets. The same thing will happen with the Vikes.
2. Brett Favre does not fit the offensive philosophy. Sure, he knows the playbook, but he is the exact opposite of what this team needs. Favre isn't going to become a different quarterback. He isn't going to just sit back and let it be the Adrian Peterson Show. Favre is coming back because he loves the media attention (and specifically two divisional games). Favre wants to be about HIM. Favre got the itch to play football, and playing football doesn't involve taking risky shots downfield.
Favre isn't going to play ball control. He wants to throw the ball into double coverage. He led the NFL in interceptions last year. Playing with Adrian Peterson will not change his extreme aggressiveness. I am chalking up Favre for at least 17 interceptions this season.
3. Favre is old and might not last the entire season. How much longer can Favre play before he takes one big hit that really shakes him up? Favre is not concussion-proof. It could happen. He will be 40 in October, and older people aren't durable. This offense needs continuity, and if Favre can't play 16 games, they will suffer.
4. Favre has absolutely no chemistry in the locker room with any of his teammates. An anonymous Jets teammate said Favre had no friends in the locker room and that he was "distant." Favre might go get a few or twelve beers with Jared Allen, but the players will develop no emotional connection with Favre in the locker room for them to trust him when the game is on the line.
5. Brad Childress has lost this locker room and the fan base. Childress lied to Minnesota Vikings fans. Childress lied to his own team. He said it was over when he knew it wasn't over. How can his team respect a man who lies to them? How can his team play hard for him knowing he went behind their back and insulted their intelligence? The team morale has to be very low in Minnesota and this will hurt the team in crunch time.
6. Favre is a distraction. The Jets started out 1-2, and lost to the sucky Raiders. The Brett Favre Show causes a distraction in the locker room that can kill a team focus. When this team needed to focus early in the season, they couldn't because reporters were asking Jets players how Favre exhibited leadership when taking a dump in the locker room.
"Oh yeah, you know Brett Favre is a legend in the NFL and he makes sure to always use Ultra Soft Charmin. We're so glad he is here to tell us not only how to play football like a kid, but also every single restroom tip imaginable."
7. Favre throws very costly interceptions in big games. Look at the last two playoff contests Favre played in Green Bay. Both times, the game ended on a Favre interception. Favre is more likely to lose a very big game than win one because he takes unnecessary chances to gain more Favre Love points from the media.
8. Brett Favre will wear down toward the home stretch. Favre went 1-4 in the Jets' last five games, losing to "elite" defenses such as the Broncos, 49ers, Bills and Seahawks. Favre threw two touchdowns and nine interceptions in that five-game span. You need to win in December, and I am not sure Favre will be so hot toward the end of the season.
Brett Favre's contract analysis
How many teams in the NFL wanted to sign Brett Favre? The answer is only one - the Minnesota Vikings. So why on earth are the Vikings giving Favre $10-12 million? They have all the leverage. All they have to do is offer $3-4 million. If Favre declines, then they can tell him to not let the door hit him on the way out.
This shows how much of a joke owner Zygi Wolf, vice president of player personnel Rick Spielman, and head coach Brad Childress are. They offered the man who led the NFL in interceptions last season a ridiculously huge contract when nobody else wanted him.
This organization has a bunch of morons running the show, and this contract makes it painfully obvious. Brett Favre was worth $12 million in 1995, but this is 2009.
Brett Favre fantasy analysis
The first thing you have to realize is Favre is a serious injury risk because of his age. He will not be healthy the entire season and you can't depend on him like you could with a Jay Cutler, David Garrard or Ben Roethlisberger to stay healthy.
Let's assume Favre throws 500 passes next season. He threw 522 with the Jets, and the Vikings quarterbacks had 452 passes last season. Favre will throw the ball more often because Childress is paying him to do this.
I am also going to project Favre throws for 7.1 YPA. He threw for 6.7 with the Jets and 7.8 with the Packers in 2007. I am guessing it will be somewhere in the middle because he has an average receiving corps.
I am going to project Favre's touchdown percentage is 3.9 and his interception percentage is 3.7. The Vikings will run the ball on the goal line more than the Jets did.
This projection totals to 3,550 passing yards, 19.5 touchdowns, and 18.5 interceptions.
Favre is draftable as a backup, but you are risking he goes down mid-season or you see a dip in his production.
What this means to football fans
Should we all commit mass ESPN suicide and unplug our televisions? Maybe. This is all we will hear about for the next four months. Brett Favre absolutely RUINED our season. The NFL at some point or another needs to move on from Favre, but he comes back worse than herpes in Cancun Spring Break. We don't want Favre. We don't need Favre. Favre is not good for the game.
I also want to say this: Favre just b***hslapped every Packer fan on the planet. He is lying when he says he cares about the fans. All Favre cares about is Favre. This is disrespectful to the Packer fans who have supported him in the past two decades. Favre is only coming back for two reasons: Oct. 5 and Nov. 1. He wants to get back at the Green Bay Packers because they traded him. They dealt Favre because they were sick of his childish antics and believed Aaron Rodgers was the better quarterback.
I think Favre is going to find out Rodgers is the better quarterback on Oct. 5. Bring it on Brett. Everybody, and I mean everybody, is rooting against the Favre-led Vikings this season.
I've just watched 16 preseason football games in the past 96 hours. I had to endure quite possibly the worst play-calling in the history of preseason football by John Fox, who cost me five units last night because he thought Hunter Cantwell could throw a hail mary 80 yards downfield. My throat is sore and I have a headache. I was looking forward to a day off today.
But noooooooooooo... Favre had to ruin everything.
I forgot to put my phone on silent this morning. Consequently, I heard it going off every 15 minutes. I didn't know it at the time, but people were calling me and texing me about the Favre signing. I didn't find this out until my eighth missed call; I was too lazy to get out of bed the first seven times my phone rang.
This is the worst thing that could have happened. Seriously, my house could have been on fire, and I would have been less pissed off. Are you kidding me? Brett Favre is coming back? I seriously want to shoot myself.
I hope you read everything that Matt wrote because it makes a ton of sense. Favre is old. Favre is injury-prone. Favre sucks. Favre is selfish. Favre won't make the Vikings any better; in fact, I'm no longer projecting them to make the playoffs.
The Vikings need a quarterback who can take care of the ball; not a guy who will carelessly fling interceptions into triple coverage.
The only thing I disagree with Matt on is the pick total; I think Favre will easily toss 20 or more interceptions this year and will get booed out of the Metrodome.
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