NFL Betting Trends: Post-Close Road Wins



There's a trend out there that I like to call the "Statfox Trend." Those of you who have followed my picks over the years know that it's very effective.

The premise: In Weeks 2-10, bet against any home favorite coming off a road victory of 1-3 points. Teams in that situation are just 17-38 against the spread since 2000.

Road wins are hard to come by in the NFL. If a team is victorious away from home by a small margin, maybe they do too much celebrating and aren't focused during the week. Who knows? The fact remains you can make tons of money with this trend.

Of course, there are exceptions. Here is a list of how each coach has fared coming off a slim road victory early in the season.


Missing Include


Team
Coach coming off road win of 1-3 points in Weeks 2-10
Record since 2000
ARZ
Ken Whisenhunt
0-1
ATL
Mike Smith
1-1
BAL
John Harbaugh
1-2
BUF
Chan Gailey
0-1
BUF
Dick Jauron
0-2
CAR
John Fox
0-2
CHI
Lovie Smith
1-2
CIN
Marvin Lewis
1-1
CLE
Mike Pettine
1-0
DAL
Jason Garrett
0-1
DEN
Mike Shanahan
0-1
GB
Mike McCarthy
1-0
HOU
Gary Kubiak
0-3
IND
Tony Dungy
2-4
JAX
Jack Del Rio
0-3
MIN
Brad Childress
0-1
NE
Bill Belichick
1-1
NO
Sean Payton
1-2
PHI
Chip Kelly
0-1
PHI
Andy Reid
1-2
SD
Norv Turner
0-1
SEA
Pete Carroll
1-0
SEA
Mike Holmgren
1-3
SF
Jim Harbaugh
1-0
SF
Mike Nolan
1-0
STL
Scott Linehan
1-0
TB
Jon Gruden
2-1
TEN
Mike Munchak
0-1
TEN
Jeff Fisher
2-1
FA
Brian Billick
2-1
FA
Dave Campo
0-1
FA
Dom Capers
0-1
FA
Bill Cowher
1-2
FA
Butch Davis
1-0
FA
Jim Fassell
0-1
FA
Joe Gibbs
0-1
FA
Jim Haslett
0-2
FA
Steve Mariucci
1-3
FA
Mike Martz
1-0
FA
Dave McGinnis
0-1
FA
Jim Mora Jr.
1-0
FA
Dan Reeves
0-1
FA
Marty Schottenheimer
1-0
FA
George Seifert
0-1
FA
Mike Sherman
0-1
FA
Dick Vermeil
1-1
FA
Dave Wannstedt
0-1
FA
Gregg Williams
1-0
Total Record
30-56



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