Cam Newton - QB No. 7 (Overall No. 91) - SELL
Newton is currently going off the board as the seventh-overall quarterback, which of course is far from his No. 1 status going into last season; however, that is still too rich for my blood. Newton finished last season as the 18th-best fantasy quarterback and looked bad doing so. He was hurting for much of the season, which curtailed his rushing numbers, and now he's undergoing surgery on his partially torn rotator cuff, which makes him questionable for the start of training camp.
Adding in the facts that Greg Olsen is 32 years old and slowing down; Ted Ginn Jr. is gone; and Kelvin Benjamin and Devin Funchess are inefficient and still pretty raw just compounds with Newton's already inefficient ability. On top of those things, Newton will likely continue to step back from goal-line runs. That sounds like trouble brewing. I won't be taking Newton where his ADP falls or even further down than that this season.
Jameis Winston - QB No. 9 (Overall No. 105) - SELL
I like Winston and, like others, am bullish on the addition of DeSean Jackson, but I'm not willing to draft him as a Top-10 fantasy quarterback just yet. I believe that is Winston's upside and would draft him a bit later with hopes to reach or exceed that upside, but until I see a bit more accuracy and a better all-around offense from Tampa Bay, I expect his numbers will continue to be inconsistent.
Kirk Cousins - QB No. 11 (Overall No. 112) - BUY
I'm not a fan of Cousins, and when I saw him kill his team in the playoffs, I was not surprised, but I'm also not going to just overlook what he did in the regular season over the last two years, because it was good and repeatable. Last year, Cousins finished as the fifth-best fantasy quarterback and the year before, the seventh.
Yes, Cousins lost DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon, but this team still doesn't have a strong running game. Also in Cousins' favor, the Redskins have added Terrelle Pryor Jr., have a strong slot man in Jamison Crowder, a high-upside second-year receiver with Josh Doctson, probably the second-best tight end in the league with Jordan Reed, and a competent third-down receiving back in Chris Thompson. Washington also threw the ball the seventh-most times in the league last season. I expect plenty of pass attempts this year and another Top-10 finish for Cousins.
Ben Roethlisberger - QB No. 13 (Overall No. 115) - BUY
Roethlisberger misses games, which puts his season totals for fantasy behind the eight-ball, but he also puts up huge fantasy games when healthy and at home - and sometimes on the road. But when you look at his per-game stats, even when you include games where he was injured, he always looks better for fantasy. Last season, Roethlisberger ranked seventh in fantasy points per game, ninth in 2015 and fifth in 2014. Those are pretty consistent numbers, but of course, you have to take his few games off with his big games, and that's where this 13th-overall quarterback in ADP helps us out. He also will have Le'Veon Bell and Martavis Bryant back for a full 16 games and could have the addition of Ladarius Green -head trauma pending. Add that to Antonio Brown and a stout offensive line, and Roethlisberger's upside continues to grow even as he gets older.
Blake Bortles - QB No. 20 (Overall No. 141) - BUY
Yes, Bortles might not even be starting at the end of the season due to his sucking tendencies, but there still is upside in this offense due to some strong receivers and a lot of passes. Amazingly, despite Allen Robinson finishing as the 31st-overall wide receiver, Bortles finished as the eighth-best fantasy quarterback. That number goes down to 12th on a per-game basis, but still isn't quite up to the 20th-QB ADP we're seeing right now.
I don't want Bortles as my starter, but I also believe his volume and receivers should continue to push him close to the Top 10 in fantasy. Last season, he threw the third-most passes and rushed for the fourth-most yards and three touchdowns, and that was a bad season. Actually, it was a horrible season, but he still managed to score the eighth-most fantasy points for a quarterback. If there is any improvement under the more offensive-minded Doug Marrone, it will just be icing on the Bortles fantasy cake.